The second matchup of the NHL's season-opening slate will feature two Metropolitan Division rivals facing off as the Pittsburgh Penguins take on the New York Rangers. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Madison Square Garden in New York, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Rangers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (O -128 / U +106). The Rangers are a -210 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +170 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Rangers predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Rangers Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -147 | 5.5 -128o / +106u | +170 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 5.5 -128o / +106u | -210 |
- Penguins vs. Rangers Spread: Rangers -1.5 (+122 ), Penguins +1.5 (-147)
- Penguins vs. Rangers Over/Under: 5.5 (-128o / +106u)
- Penguins vs. Rangers Moneyline: Penguins +170, Rangers -210
Penguins vs. Rangers Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
After finishing 24th in the league with just 80 points last season, Penguins GM Kyle Dubas has fully committed to a painful rebuild. Pittsburgh is priced as the third favorite to finish dead last this season and earn the highest chance of drafting Gavin McKenna in the 2026 entry draft.
While it's hard to say that any team still holding Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby is fully committed to a rebuild, the majority of Dubas' recent moves are clear indications that the team is not attempting to contend in the near future, and the depth of the roster is currently a huge concern.
Crosby will likely line up between Ville Koivunen and Rickard Rakell in tonight's matchup. Koivunen has developed well since being drafted 51st overall in 2021 by the Carolina Hurricanes, but it's still unlikely that he and Rakell can help power the Penguins' top unit to above-average results this season.
During a small sample of eight games at the tail end of last season, Koivunen generated 2.90 points per 60 and attempted 12.42 shots per 60.
Evgeni Malkin is set to skate in a similarly undesirable role as Crosby in centering Anthony Mantha and Justin Brazeau on the second line. Mantha has held strong underlying results historically and could become a tradable asset at the deadline after missing the majority of last season with a knee injury but is still likely to offer below-average results in a second-line role, while Brazeau will likely prove to be quite out of place in a top-six role.
The Penguins allowed 3.50 goals against per game last season, as well as 3.28 xGA/60. Their defensive core does not appear likely to be overly improved, unless Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson are able to offer surprising bounce-backs after shaky 2023-24 seasons.
Tristan Jarry is expected to get the start in goal in Tuesday's matchup. Jarry held a -4.7 GSAx rating and .892 save percentage in 36 appearances last season.
New York Rangers
After winning the Presidents' Trophy in the 2022-23 season, the Rangers took a massive step back last year, missing the postseason with a total of 85 points. As a result, GM Chris Drury opted to relieve head coach Peter Laviolette of his duties, opting to bring in longtime Penguins bench boss Mike Sullivan.
The Rangers allowed 3.48 xGA/60 last season and were visibly awful defensively throughout the vast majority of the campaign. Sullivan's main focus out of the gates will likely be to help the team play a more structured game defensively and limit the amount of true grade "A" chances Igor Shesterkin is forced to handle in goal.
New York also named 2024 acquisition J.T. Miller as team captain, attempting to lean into the fiery nature of Miller to set a new tone this season. Miller will line up between Mika Zibanejad and William Cuylle on the top line in tonight's matchup, a unit which generated 3.72 goals per 60 last season in a small sample of play.
In trading Chris Kreider away to the Anaheim Ducks, the Rangers have committed to offering Cuylle a full-time role in the top-six, which will likely prove to be a smart decision given where they are at in their respective careers. Cuylle was the only skater to record 300 hits and 20 goals last season and could be poised for a full-fledged breakout.
Given last season's results, it's no surprise that the Rangers opted to retool their blue line in order to attempt to achieve better results. K'Andre Miller was traded away to the Carolina Hurricanes for Scott Morrow, a second-round pick, and a conditional first-round pick. The trade could easily help both sides, as it helped the Rangers sign one of the game's best defensive defensemen in Vladislav Gavrikov.
Igor Shesterkin will start in goal for the Rangers in this matchup. While the public perception was that the former Vezina Trophy winner had a down year in 2024-25, his +21.5 GSAx rating suggests that his surface-level statistics were tanked by the Rangers horrific defensive play, as he faced extremely difficult shot quality on average.
Penguins vs. Rangers Prediction
While the Rangers could potentially be a drastically improved side this season under Sullivan, laying -225 on Opening Night does not sound overly appealing, even if the Penguins do figure to be quite uncompetitive this season. There can be some added volatility early on in the season as teams attempt to catch their rhythm, and Pittsburgh certainly will not lay down in an Opening Night matchup versus a Metro Division rival.
There are two prop bets that appear to hold value in this matchup, targeting a pair of young wingers that may be undervalued by sportsbooks considering their current roles.
Koivunen attempted 12.42 shots per 60 last season and has found himself in a strong role on the top line alongside one of the greatest playmakers in the history of the game. It may not be long until he's priced closer to -160 to record over 1.5 shots on goal if he stays on the top unit, and I see value betting the over in tonight's matchup before a potential adjustment.
Many of the same things can be said regarding backing Cuylle to record a point at a long price of +128 with the talented power-forward set to skate alongside Miller and Zibanejad on the top line. Cuylle is a likely breakout candidate this year, and considering his role, I'm happy to back him getting onto the board.
Best Bet: Ville Koivunen Over 1.5 Shots on Goal -132 (FanDuel, Play to -137), William Cuylle Over 0.5 Points +128 (Bet365, Play to +123)
