The race for the top of the gold medal podium has become the central drama of the Milano-Cortina Games. While the early days saw a crowded field, the market on Kalshi has effectively turned into a two-horse race between a dominant Norway and a surging Team USA.
If you’re trading the "Most Gold Medals" market, here is where the contenders stand as we move into the heart of the second week.
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Winter Olympics Most Gold Medals Odds
Here are the Kalshi odds for the country to win the Most Gold Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics:
Norway Gold Medal Odds
Norway entered the 2026 Games as the heavy favorites, and midway through the competition, they are living up to the billing. With 7 gold medals already in the bank, the Norwegians have a firm grip on the top spot.
The Norwegian gold rush has been fueled by their traditional "medal engines." Johannes Høsflot Klæbo has been untouchable in cross-country skiing, and the biathlon team has already secured critical wins in the individual events. Perhaps most impressively, Norway has shown it can win outside the "skinny ski" sports, picking up a gold in Men’s Slopestyle thanks to Birk Ruud.
For Kalshi traders, Norway remains the "incumbent" to beat, as their upcoming schedule is heavy with relays—events where their unmatched depth makes the country a favorite for this market.
United States Gold Medal Odds
Team USA is currently sitting at 4 gold medals at the Winter Olympics, a tally that keeps them within striking distance of Norway. Unlike the Norwegians, who rely on endurance volume, the U.S. has found its gold in high-impact individual performances.
Ice Dominance: The U.S. successfully defended its gold in the Figure Skating Team Event, powered by a historic performance from Ilia Malinin. With Malinin still the heavy favorite for the men’s individual gold, the U.S. has a "banked" projection that keeps their odds high.
Mountain Success:Breezy Johnson captured a thrilling gold in the Women’s Downhill, and just this morning (Feb 11), Elizabeth Lemley stunned the field to take gold in Women’s Moguls.
The U.S. is currently the "value play" on Kalshi. While they trail in the raw gold count, they have several "locks" remaining in snowboarding and freestyle skiing that could see them pull even with Norway by the final weekend.
Germany Gold Medals Odds
At the start of the Games, Germany was expected to be the third major contender for the most golds. However, as of February 11, they have fallen off the pace with 3 gold medals.
The concern for Germany isn't just the number, but where the golds are (or aren't) coming from. While they saw success in the Men's and Women's Singles Luge, they were uncharacteristically beaten in the Men’s Doubles Luge, settling for bronze while the host Italians took gold. In 2022, Germany relied on a near-sweep of the sliding track to inflate their gold total. With other nations cutting into their dominance in Bobsleigh and Skeleton, Germany’s path to the top of the gold table has become significantly more difficult.
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