The battle for the most total medals at the Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics has narrowed into a high-stakes duel between the two perennial winter titans:Norway and the United States.
While the Games began with several nations in the hunt, prediction market odds at Kalshi now reflect a clear separation at the top. If you’re looking to trade on the final medal standings, here is how the landscape has shifted mid-competition.
You can trade on this and other winter events, as well as thousands of other markets, at Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Be sure to claim the Kalshi promo code above, so you can trade on 2026 Winter Olympics markets with an edge.
Winter Olympics Most Medals Odds
Here are the odds at Kalshi for which country is anticipated to earn the most total medals for the 2026 Winter Olympics:
Norway: The Relentless Leaders
Norway arrived in Italy as the favorites, and at the midway point, they have done nothing to relinquish that title. Currently leading the overall table with 13 medals (including 7 gold), the Norwegian "medal engine" is firing on all cylinders.
The story of the Games so far has been Johannes Høsflot Klæbo. The cross-country legend has already secured two gold medals in the skiathlon and the individual sprint, bringing his career total to seven. With several team events and the 10km freestyle still to come, Klæbo is a near-lock to add more to Norway's tally. Norway’s dominance in Biathlon has also remained steady, providing a high floor for their total medal count that makes them the current favorite at Kalshi.
Related Resource:Winter Olympics Odds at Kalshi
United States: The Freestyle Surge
Team USA is currently breathing down Norway's neck with 11 total medals, fueled by a massive surge in the first week. While Norway relies on endurance sports, the U.S. has dominated the "action" disciplines and the ice.
Ice Dominance: The U.S. captured a second consecutive gold in the Figure Skating Team Event, led by a sensational performance from Ilia Malinin. The "Quad God" also holds a massive lead heading into the men's individual free skate, essentially "pre-calculating" another medal for the U.S. tally.
Freestyle Fireworks: On February 11, the U.S. went 1-2 in Women’s Moguls, with Elizabeth Lemley taking gold and Jaelin Kauf taking silver.
Alpine Redemption: Breezy Johnson’s emotional gold in the Women’s Downhill provided a critical boost, especially as the team looks to offset a slower start from Mikaela Shiffrin.
For Kalshi traders, the U.S. represents the "high-ceiling" play. Their success is spread across more disciplines than Norway's, meaning they have more opportunities to pick up "surprise" bronzes and silvers in the second week.
Germany: The Sliding Slump
Before the torch was lit, Germany was widely considered the third pillar of this race. However, their odds have lengthened significantly.
The primary reason for Germany's slide is the uncharacteristic vulnerability in their "sliding kingdom." While they took gold in the Men's Singles Luge (Max Langenhan), they were stunned in the Men's Doubles Luge, where Italy took the gold and Germany was relegated to bronze. In Beijing 2022, Germany swept nearly every sliding event; in 2026, the field has caught up. Combined with a slower start in Biathlon, Germany is no longer seen as a threat to overtake Norway or the U.S. for the total medal crown.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
