Kalshi lets you trade Yes/No event contracts tied to Winter Olympics outcomes, like which country finishes with the most total medals, or who comes out on top in a specific sport. Markets are built around two choices—Yes or No—and the price you see is the market’s live opinion. If you’re used to reading lines, it’ll feel familiar fast. If you’re not, don't worry: it’s still the same two buttons over and over, just on different questions.
What we’d recommend before your first trade is to click the rules link inside a contract. That’s where the settlement source lives, plus the weird edge cases that always show up once the events actually start.
TL;DR Summary
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Prediction market apps like Kalshi let you trade Yes/No contracts on Winter Olympics outcomes.
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The price moves because other people are trading, so treat it like a live board, not a “final answer.”
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You’ll usually see medal boards first, plus sport winners and performance markets.
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Before you put money in, click the rules link once, because wording decides how the contract settles.
2026 Winter Olympics Key Details
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Start date: February 4, 2026
- Opening ceremony: February 6, 2026
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End date: February 22, 2026
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Venues: competition is spread across 15 venues in northern Italy.
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Host cities: Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, in Italy.
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Scale: 116 medal events across 16 sports, so there’s a lot of snow and ice on the schedule.
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How to watch in the USA: coverage runs through NBC, with streaming on Peacock, plus windows on CNBC and USA Network.
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New sports/new events: ski mountaineering is new, with men’s sprint, women’s sprint, and a mixed relay on the program. There are also other new events on the schedule, including dual moguls in freestyle skiing, women’s large hill in ski jumping, and a mixed team relay in skeleton.
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Luge adds women’s doubles, which is one of those changes that can nudge medal and race markets once start lists are locked.
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Everything runs on local time in Italy (Central European Time). If you’re trading from the US, it’s normal for a contract to start late-night your time and settle on what feels like the next day.
Live Winter Olympic Odds at Kalshi
Here are the latest live odds for who will win the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics:
Sign up for a Kalshi account using the module below to explore Winter Olympic medal markets for sports such as:
- Curling
- Doubles curling
- Ice hockey
- Snowboarding
- Speed skating
- Ski jumping
- Freestyle skiing
- Luge
Polymarket is one of Kalshi's biggest competitors, so it's worth checking Polymarket as well to find the best odds for the 2026 Winter Olympics.
How Kalshi Winter Olympics Markets Work
Like its other prediction markets, Kalshi has event contracts for the Olympics that are based on Yes/No contracts. You’re not picking between five outcomes: you’re answering one question at a time. For example, on “Will the USA win the most total medals?”, you buy Yes or No, and you’re in.
The pricing model
Every contract is priced in cents:
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Each side runs 1¢ to 99¢
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Yes + No = $1
So if Yes is 70¢, No is 30¢. That 70¢ is also the market’s implied take on probability, roughly “70%,” based on what people are paying right now.
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Those numbers aren’t “set.” They move because other users are buying and selling.
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If a lot of money leans one way, the price can jump. If sentiment changes, it can slide just as fast.
What you win on a correct contract
If you’re on the right side, your shares settle at $1. That means your upside is basically the gap between your buy price and $1:
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Buy Yes at 60¢, and if it settles Yes, you profit 40¢ per share (minus any fees).
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Put $10 in at 60¢, and you’re buying about 16 shares (because $10 / $0.60 ≈ 16.66, and the app will show the exact number). If Yes settles, those shares resolve at $1 each.
Why do people chase cheap contracts? Because the upside per share is bigger. Why are they cheap? Because the market is saying they’re less likely. Same trade-off, every time.
Why prices move (and what doesn’t)
Prices move for the same reason any market moves: new info and people reacting to it. An injury announcement, lineup news, or a surprise early result can change related contracts, especially in sports where a small edge matters.
However, on Kalshi, “busy” can mean two very different things, and you can usually tell which one it is by thinking in Volume vs Open Interest terms. Volume is just activity, aka how much trading happened recently, while open interest is conviction, meaning how many contracts people are actually willing to hold.
High volume with low open interest is usually what we call a churny attention spike: lots of people moving in and out because the storyline is loud. High open interest, even when volume isn’t popping, is closer to “people are planted here.”
And even when a market is liquid, that only tells you it’s easy to get filled. It doesn't mean it’s right. Liquidity can be “confidence theater,” where the crowd looks certain because the board is active, not because the underlying information is solid. If you want the full read on what these signals mean, check out our Liquidity ≠ Accuracy guide.
How to Trade on the Winter Olympics at Kalshi
Here’s how to sign up for an account at Kalshi so you can trade on the Winter Olympics and other markets:
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Use the links on this page to download the Kalshi app or go to the Kalshi website.
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Create an account and complete the identity checks (address, date of birth, etc.)
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Fund your account using the payment methods shown in-app
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Head to "Sports" and find the Winter Olympics section
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Pick a contract, choose Yes or No, enter your size, and place the trade
A couple tips that help in practice
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Don’t just hit the first price you see. The “best” price on the screen might only be available for a tiny amount. If you try to buy more, you can end up paying a worse number on the same contract.
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If the price is jumping around, pick your number and stick to it. Decide what you’re willing to pay (like 62¢) and place it there, instead of going for 65¢ because you refreshed at the wrong second.
READ NEXT: How to Bet on Kalshi
What Olympic Winter Games Contracts Are on Kalshi?
You’ll mostly run into three types of markets:
Medal count boards
These are the easiest to understand and usually the most active:
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Most total medals
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Most gold medals
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Most silver medals
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Most bronze medals
Those medal boards move all event long because every new medal changes the standings, and traders react to it.
Individual sport winners and matchups
This is the “specific sport, specific outcome” lane. You’ll see markets tied to sports like:
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Ski jumping
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Cross-country skiing
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Speed skating
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Short track speed skating
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Figure skating
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Curing
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Ice hockey
Depending on how a market is written, you might also see country vs. country questions for a specific matchup. Same concept as a head-to-head, just framed as a Yes/No contract.
Athlete performance contracts
These usually show up closer to the Games and get more granular:
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Medal outcomes for a named athlete
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Finishing times or placements in a specific race
Other Prediction Markets at Kalshi
Kalshi has prediction markets beyond event contracts for the Winter Olympics. Check out The Action Network's guides on other Kalshi prediction markets:
- Election outcomes
- GTA 6 release
- Taylor Swift (wedding odds, wedding party, etc.)
- Reality TV
- Government shutdown
- Rotten Tomatoes
- Spotify top songs
Availability, Regulation, and Responsible Trading
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Availability can vary by location, and the app will tell you what you can trade where you are, as some states have challenged these sports-related offerings.
On responsible gambling, Kalshi has a Responsible Trading section with tools like Trading Breaks and Voluntary Opt-Outs (self-exclusion style controls), plus outside support through Birches Health and other resources.
Even if you’re comfortable with risk, treat this like entertainment with a budget, not a plan to “win money during the Winter Olympics.” Contracts settle when outcomes are final, and being early doesn't mean being right.
These markets on Kalshi are Yes/No event contracts tied to specific outcomes, like which country ends up with the most total medals. You’re trading with other users, and the contract settles to Yes or No once the outcome is official.
Each contract is a Yes/No question. Prices trade from 1¢ to 99¢, the price implies probability, and settlement is binary: the winning side is worth $1 per contract and the other side settles to $0. You can hold a position to settlement or close it by selling.
Kalshi is federally overseen by the CFTC. The tough part is that some sports-related contracts can vary by state because of ongoing challenges, so don’t overthink it: open the app and see what it lets you trade from your location.
Yes, you can trade in the mobile app, and you can also use the site in a mobile browser.
Once the outcome is final, the contract settles to Yes or No based on the market’s rules. If you’re on the right side, shares settle at $1. If you’re wrong, they settle at $0.