PvB Bets' Picks
Today
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2-leg Parlay-141
1u
2-leg Parlay (-141 @ DraftKings)
Chuorio has only walked once in his L10 games with 3+ PA's. On the season, he's only walked at a 6.0% clip vs RHP and only a 6.8% clip overall. Meanwhile, Sevy has had solid control this season with a 7.9% walk-rate and 8.0% walk-rate vs righties.
Pairing that with King 1+ walks, something he has done in 29 of 31 starts this season. ATL is a solid walking team and hold a 9.0% walk-rate vs RHP over L30.
2
2-leg Parlay (HOU ML)(S. Lugo 3+ HA)-110
1u
2-leg Parlay (-130 @ DraftKings)
🦵 HOU Astros ML
🦵 S. Lugo 3+ Hits allowed
Must win game for HOU and Brown has really locked in of late (2 ER or fewer in 8 of L10). Also a must-win game for BAL and Lugo has given up 3+ HA in 29 of 32 starts this season.
1
G. Sanchez under 0.5 Walks-110
1u
G. Sanchez ⬇️ 0.5 Walks (-145 @ MGM)(-121 w/ 20% Boost)
Sanchez has been under this mark in 7 of L10 with at least 2 AB's and 8 of L10 with at least 3. In his career he is 0-7 with one walk vs Quintana. On the season he owns a respectable 9.6% walk-rate and 10.1% vs LHP. Quintana owns a 9.7% walk-rate vs right-handed batter this season.
I know, this isn't shaping up to be a convincing argument, but what I really like is the pinch-hit risk here. He is primarily a platoon player at this point and mostly plays vs lefties. We saw this last game, when he took 2 AB's vs the lefty starter and was pinch-hit for after he was removed. In fact, during the regular season, he faced Quintana in 2 AB's and then was pinch-hit for when they brought in a righty RP.
Now let's add to that. Quintana is likely to see a pretty short leash here in this one and the public/sharps have hammered his under 15.5 outs line (like we did). There is a good possibility that Sanchez only sees Quintana once or twice before being pinch-hit for in this elimination game. Sanchez is also a defensive liability so there would be no reason to keep him in late in the game for a defensive advantage.
1
2-leg Parlay (Navy/Alabama)-150
1u
2-leg Parlay (-179 @ MGM)(-150 w/ 20% Boost)
🦵 Navy ML + Under 48.5
🦵 Alabama ML
I like the 2-legger a lot for the first leg. Unfortunately, MGM won't let you build a specific SGP teaser so if you don't have the boost, build a Navy ML and alt under. Alabama should roll today (no pun intended). We say how good their offense is against a very solid UGA defense. There is no way Vanderbilt's offense will be able to keep up today.
I know the overall under for the Navy/AF game looks really low, but the under trends for these two teams are pretty insane. These games are 44-9-1 to the under over the last 54 meetings! It's typically a slugfest. I'm not worried about a weak AF offense, but Navy's offense is solid, so I like to grab an alt under here.
1
B. Harper Over 0.5 Walks-115
1u
1
A. Judge o0.5 Walks-113
1u
This price is wild. The man is over in 8 of L10 and his price was -200 or worse (and started at 1.5 walks). I know Judge hasn't been great, but walking is something he continues to do.
1
Futures
Past Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
Last 7 Days | 1-3-0 | 25% | -2.04u |
Last 30 Days | 8-12-0 | 40% | -4.56u |
All Time | 8-12-0 | 40% | -4.56u |
Top Leagues | |||
---|---|---|---|
NFL | 4-4-0 | 50% | -0.03u |
MLB | 4-8-0 | 33% | -4.53u |
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