Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner
NFL, college football, college basketball, player projections. have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
3.4K
Followers
274.2K

Sean Koerner's Picks

Today
Pending
J.Nailor u1.5 Recs-101
MIN
MIN Team Abbreviation@PIT Team Abbreviation
PIT
0.51u
09/28 1:30 PM
Jordan Addison returns from his three-game suspension, which should cut Nailor’s playing time. Adam Thielen is in the mix too, and I expect him to mix in more than Brandon Powell or Trent Sherfield did as last year’s WR4. That is a tough combo for a player who already draws a low target rate (13.4%) with a downfield aDOT (15.0) and an expected catch rate of just 47%. Sometimes the OC gets cute and schemes one early. We saw it in Week 2 when they opened with a designed throw to Nailor in the flat for a two-yard gain. The fact they did that so recently makes it a bit less likely to happen again here, When he is on the field he will also be competing with Addison for targets (instead of Thielen), which does not help. I project him at 1.3 receptions with about a 61% chance to stay under 1.5. His one catch could be an explosive one, so I am not interested in fading his yardage prop here.
186
26
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
24
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
24
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
16
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
16
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days11-5-069%
3.61u
Last 30 Days26-31-046%
-1.14u
All Time1882-1519-3155%
219.34u
Top Leagues
NFL1064-843-1955%
125.42u
MLB290-245-454%
40.18u
NCAAB262-210-355%
28.85u
WNBA147-118-355%
19.47u
NCAAF36-23-259%
6.62u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
Golf0-3-00%
-0.60u
NBA78-71-052%
-1.01u

Summary

Sean runs the predictive analytics at Action Network. From the in-game win probabilities in the award-winning Action Network app, to the DFS models on FantasyLabs, to the fantasy football rankings across the network. He also churns out fantasy/betting content for the NFL and is co-host for the Fantasy Flex pod and the betting show Convince Me. 

Sean creates projects for nearly every sport, from the WNBA to MLB to college hoops and everything in between.

Experience & Accolades

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books creating prediction models and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point