Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
Under 141.5-110
SDSU
@
NEV
0.55u
01/07 4:00 AM
193
Under 132.5-115
CIN
60
62
WVU
0.5u
FINAL 1/07
153
MINN +5.5-112
IOWA
67
70
MINN
0.5u
FINAL 1/07
191
Pending
D.Adams u4.5 Recs-125
LA
@
CAR
0.63u
01/10 9:30 PM
Adams is expected to return from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out a few games now. I’m assuming they were playing it safe and that he’s closer to 100% with a low chance of a setback, but there’s still a chance he could be limited. My projection is assuming he steps right back into his full-time role at full health, so any sort of limitation due to the hamstring only helps favor the under here.
This is also an odd matchup where you have arguably the best team facing one of the worst playoff teams (ever) as 10-point road favorites. I do think the Rams win this one with ease, and it’s a great matchup for them on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. It’s also a great matchup for Puka Nacua and the TE group, as the Panthers have struggled against WR1s and TEs this season.
Davante tends to see a high % of his targets either downfield or in the end zone, which means anytime he does haul in a pass it has a massive impact on the game and often sets up the Rams to play with the lead and lean more run heavy. In a sense, every catch he makes can actually hurt his rest-of-game projection, which is a sneaky reason I like the under here.
There’s also a chance we see some rain or wind in Carolina. Probably not enough to materially impact play, but it’s still a downgrade compared to playing indoors in LA and dings Adams slightly. We also saw Tyler Higbee return last week, which makes the TE group more likely to eat into Adams’ target share.
All of this has me projecting him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. I have zero interest in fading his yardage or TD markets. I’m specifically fading him in this market. And again, this projection assumes he’s fully healthy and back to his normal role, so any limitations at all only add more hidden value to the under.
156
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.5u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1u
87
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
50
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 11-8-1 | 55% | 1.64u |
| Last 30 Days | 45-31-1 | 58% | 6.45u |
| All Time | 2030-1630-32 | 55% | 237.27u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1200-946-20 | 55% | 141.84u |
| MLB | 298-247-4 | 54% | 42.72u |
| NCAAB | 265-211-3 | 55% | 29.81u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 37-24-2 | 59% | 6.59u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-74-0 | 51% | -2.77u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point