Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
D.Maye u31.5 Pass Att-110
LV
@
NE
0.55u
09/07 5:00 PM
Getting ahead of this one as the weather forecast continues to trend worse. Rain is expected throughout the game (heavy at times), which should encourage both teams to lean more on the run.
The Patriots are 2.5-point home favorites, which projects them to lead for ~15% more snaps than they did in 2024. That added positive game script should tilt them further toward the ground game. Maye also scrambled at a very high rate as a rookie, and I expect that tendency to continue in Year 2. Every scramble is one less passing attempt.
On the other side, the Raiders should be more run-heavy under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly after they landed Ashton Jeanty. That further lowers the expected play volume overall, which limits Maye’s path to a high pass-attempt game.
I’m projecting this closer to 29.5 attempts, and I expect the market to adjust as the weather angle gets more priced in.
237
W.Robinson u4.5 Recs-122
NYG
@
WAS
0.61u
09/07 5:00 PM
Robinson has made his living as a low-aDOT volume guy, but Russell Wilson isn’t the best fit for that style. Reports have him lining up outside more, which could mean deeper routes and fewer easy targets underneath. That makes his reception line too high if true.
Week 1 props are always a crapshoot (we’re working off beat reports, coachspeak, and speculation) so I’m treading carefully. But this is the type of angle worth taking early. If his role does shift, his receiving yards line (35.5) looks too low. I actually show value both ways, which sets up a reverse-correlation angle:
Under 4.5 receptions & Over 30+ receiving yards
Parlaying that pays +367, and my sims have it closer to +250 as fair. If he goes his usual 8/30/0, so be it. We’ll finally get real data in Week 1 to sharpen from.
137
T.McLaurin u4.5 Recs-118
NYG
@WAS
0.59u
09/07 5:00 PM
McLaurin finally got paid, but he missed most of camp and we’ve seen plenty of top WRs (Chase, Lamb, Aiyuk last year) start slow in that situation. He’s coming off a career year with a 70% catch rate, which was 11.6% over expected, largely fueled by finally having an elite QB in Jayden Daniels under center. However, that level of efficiency is tough to repeat.
Now add in more target competition: Deebo Samuel joins the mix, and with Brian Robinson Jr. gone, Austin Ekeler could take on a bigger early-season receiving role out of the backfield. That creates several factors pulling McLaurin’s target share down.
I’m projecting him closer to 4.2 receptions, with around a 59% chance to stay under 4.5. He’s still dangerous in receiving yards markets so this isn’t a fade in that market, but his profile makes him another candidate for the “Under receptions, Over yards” style of reverse-correlation parlay I flagged with Wan’Dale if you want to go that route as well.
128
T.Bigsby o10.5 Longest Rush-112
CAR
@
JAC
0.56u
09/07 5:00 PM
Liam Coen’s scheme should give a boost to Jacksonville’s backfield, but usage is still unsettled between Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, and rookie Bhayshul Tuten. Early signs point to Etienne and Bigsby handling most of the work out of the gate, with Tuten eased in initially.
Bigsby projects to handle early-down snaps, which makes his longest rush prop more appealing than trying to pin down volume. The Jaguars are 3.5-point favorites, implying they’ll play with a lead at a ~17% higher rate than last year, which sets up a higher team run rate overall. Even if Bigsby’s touches are capped, it only takes one carry for him to clear this number.
The matchup also helps. Carolina’s run defense has been among the league’s worst over the last two seasons, and while healthier and bolstered with new pieces, this is still one of the easiest spots Bigsby will face all year. Carolina allowed 2.09 yards before contact per rush (2nd-highest) last season. That’s dangerous against a runner like Bigsby, who consistently generates after contact as he ranked 3rd in yards after contact per attempt last year.
With the setup of better run-blocking lanes plus Bigsby’s ability to turn contact into chunk gains, the conditions are strong for at least one explosive run. I project his median longest rush closer to 13 yards with about a 59% chance of clearing 10.5.
107
C.McLaughlin o1.5 FGs Made-110
TB
@
ATL
0.55u
09/07 5:00 PM
The Buccaneers averaged 4.0 red-zone trips per game last year (3rd-most), but it’s unlikely they repeat a 67% red-zone TD rate (3rd) or 51% 3rd-down conversion rate (1st) and will be without OC Liam Coen, who’s now with the Jaguars. Even a modest regression in those areas should lead to more FG attempts for McLaughlin.
He’s been one of the most accurate kickers in the league, hitting 93.6% of his FG attempts over the past two seasons. His range is elite as well as he’s converted 32 of 39 (82%) career kicks from 50+ yards. That kind of trust from coaches typically earns him a few extra long attempts each year.
This game is in a dome, further boosting his expected make rate. I project this closer to 1.9 FGs made with around a 57% chance to clear. Not necessarily a mid-season hammer spot, but for Week 1, this is a more straightforward edge than a lot of the market.
172
2-WAY PARLAY+367
0.1u
Reverse correlation parlay (full write up in my original WanDale prop note)
W.Robinson u4.5 Recs-122
NYG
@WAS
09/07 5:00 PM
W.Robinson o29.5 Rec Yds-115
NYG
@WAS
09/07 5:00 PM
61
Pending
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
85
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
48
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-2-0 | 0% | -1.16u |
| Last 7 Days | 4-5-0 | 44% | -0.10u |
| Last 30 Days | 13-20-1 | 38% | -2.86u |
| All Time | 1862-1495-31 | 55% | 220.64u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1044-819-19 | 55% | 126.72u |
| MLB | 290-245-4 | 54% | 40.18u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-71-0 | 52% | -1.01u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
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- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point