Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Projecting Wheeler closer to 5.7 strikeouts. He made four spring training starts and fanned 13 batters over 14 innings. More importantly, he threw just 30, 50, 75, and 71 pitches in those starts. He’s not the type of pitcher who needs a ton of spring work to get stretched out but I’m thinking it’s more likely we see a 90-pitch outing as opposed to a 100-pitch outing. Nationals were a below-average offense last season and they didn’t do anything in the offseason to drastically change that, but they were one of the harder teams to strikeout against RHP. They had just a 20.6% K%, which made them the 8th hardest team to strikeout.

Alcantara missed 2024 with Tommy John Surgery and has looked good in Spring Training. Reports say his velocity is back to pre-surgery levels and he’s been clocked at 99 MPH. Still, Alcantara made just 5 spring appearances, throwing 17, 30, 45, 57, and 48 pitches. Reports also say he won’t face any restrictions or limitations but I have to think the Marlins will be a little cautious out the gate, especially considering he didn’t throw more than 57 pitches in a spring game. I’m thinking he’s likely capped at around 70 pitches or 5 innings, whichever comes first. In the Spring he finished with 10 strikeouts over 12.1 innings, and in 2023 he was at 152 strikeouts over 184.2 innings. He’s generally been lower than a strikeout-per-inning pitcher so I like the under here.