Brandon Anderson

🔥 Wild Card Rd Hot Read 🔥

The Rams are the biggest road playoff favorite in our system — and they should be. Los Angeles is the best team in football, and the Rams have mostly lapped the competition. Stay SI Sportsperson of the Year Awards 2025 | Full Show (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) I have the Rams first in my power ratings with a bullet. I'd make them more than a field goal favorite on a neutral field against every team in the league but Seattle; they'd be more than a touchdown favorites on a neutral against half the playoff field. The Rams led the league in Offensive DVOA both running and passing, and they did that against a top schedule, playing 13 of their 17 games against teams with at least eight wins. They also had the lowest offensive variance in the league — a remarkable combo, meaning they were outstanding and lapped the rest of the league week after week, game after game, regardless of the competition. LA had eight wins this season by 14 or more points. And unlike most teams this good, they've actually been more unlucky, with all four losses requiring goofy late bounces. Many teams pile up gaudy records with close wins; flip every one-score game this season and the Rams are still 13-4, best in the NFC. On top of all that, the Rams might actually be a bit underrated given their relative poor play of late, because the team is getting key names back for the playoffs. You know about the league's best red zone threat Davante Adams, but the defense fall way off without DB Quentin Lake, and LT Alaric Jackson is their most important blocker. The Rams are all that and a bag of peanuts — consider that they're nearly the Super Bowl favorites even as a 5-seed, with an extra game and likely zero home games compared to 1-seed Seattle. That's how good the Rams are. And then there's the Panthers. Carolina is the worst team in the postseason field by any measure. With a -69 point differential, they're one of the worst playoff teams ever. They finished 24th in DVOA, near bottom quarter of the league, and have no particular discernible strength. Flip their one-score results and they'd have gone 4-13, worst in the league. The Panthers laid a complete egg against the Bucs in a de facto playoff opportunity last week but got here through the back door. Carolina went 2-5 against playoff teams this season, with an average score of 28-to-14, scoring 16 or fewer points in all but one game. The Panthers averaged just 10.2 PPG in those five losses, losing by 11, 16, 17, 29, and 31 points. Of course, one of those two wins was against the Rams — so let's talk about it. That game should make us more confident for LA, not less. The Rams absolutely throttled Carolina for 98% of that game. They finished with 7.4 yards a play and a massive 61-to-39% Success Rate advantage, including 76% for the Rams on running plays, the best by any team all season. LA only even made it to third down five times! LA lost because Matthew Stafford threw a tipped interception in the end zone, the a pick-6 on his next pass, and because Bryce Young completed two outlier long TD passes on fourth down, a swing of 11.5 EPA on those two plays alone. But the Rams were better in that game. Far better. Most games with those underlying numbers end in a Rams victory by three touchdowns. This one might. This just isn't the matchup for Carolina. The Panthers rank 27th in EPA per play defending motion plays. The Rams rank top four in both volume and EPA per play in motion, a Sean McVay staple. Carolina ranks 31st in EPA on third down defensively and 32nd in pressure, so Stafford should pick them apart. The Panthers are bottom 10 against WR1s by DVOA — oh hey, Puka Nacua — and 30th against tight ends, with the Rams loading up on 13 personnel. LA should be especially successful running, like it was the first matchup. Carolina is particularly terrible against inside runs, and the Rams have exploded running inside over the back half of the season, leaping from 22nd to 8th in EPA per play. Meanwhile, Carolina is the worst team in the playoff field at finding explosives, and the Panthers also rank 25th in red zone efficiency on offense, up against the No. 3 defense in that part of the field. So the Panthers probably won't move the ball routinely, shouldn't break off many big long plays, and likely won't punch it in on the rare times they do get close to scoring, and they also have virtually no shot of stopping the Rams unless they stop themselves. Ruh roh. Of course, playoff games are never this easy. It's still an outdoor rainy game for a dome team, and it's still a road playoff game. Any number of underdog trends will remind you to bet on home playoff dogs, especially teams at .500 or below this opening round. Those are small-sample trends, though, and they ignore some trends pointing strongly in the opposite direction. Wild Card round hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 14-30 ATS (32%), and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 20-39-1 ATS (34%). Carolina wasn't supposed to be here, Bryce Young has never been here before, and history strongly suggests this could be a tough transition. As for the Rams, who earned this softer matchup with a win last week, road teams on a one-game win streak are 16-4-1 ATS (80%) this round in our system. And about that rematch? Teams that lost to a non-division opponent in their 12th game or later are 7-2 ATS in the playoff rematch over the last decade, covering by over a touchdown. This is only the fourth instance in the past 25 years of such a playoff rematch where the losing team is favored by over a TD in the rematch — the previous four losers won the rematch by an average of 15 PPG. Part of the reason teams often underperform as big favorites against these .500-type squads is because they mentally overlook them, already thinking about the next matchup. The Rams already know not to overlook the Panthers — they just lost to them, and they'd likely be sitting at home enjoying a bye right now if they had won that game. Suffice to say Carolina will have LA's attention. I bet Rams -10 Sunday night on the Hot Read, and I'm happy to take them -10.5. I'm playing alt lines too, because this could get ugly. Carolina has struggled to score against playoff opponents all season, and eight of the Rams' 12 wins have been by 14+ points, with three of them by at least 24. I don't trust the Panthers to score, and the Rams should be able to name their number on Saturday in one of the biggest playoff mismatches I can remember. Play Rams -12.5 at +118 (bet365) and put a portion of your bet on Rams -23.5 at +420 (FanDuel) in case this gets ugly.

The Rams are the biggest road playoff favorite in our system — and they should be. Los Angeles is the best team in football, and the Rams have mostly lapped the competition. Stay SI Sportsperson of the Year Awards 2025 | Full Show (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) I have the Rams first in my power ratings with a bullet. I'd make them more than a field goal favorite on a neutral field against every team in the league but Seattle; they'd be more than a touchdown favorites on a neutral against half the playoff field. The Rams led the league in Offensive DVOA both running and passing, and they did that against a top schedule, playing 13 of their 17 games against teams with at least eight wins. They also had the lowest offensive variance in the league — a remarkable combo, meaning they were outstanding and lapped the rest of the league week after week, game after game, regardless of the competition. LA had eight wins this season by 14 or more points. And unlike most teams this good, they've actually been more unlucky, with all four losses requiring goofy late bounces. Many teams pile up gaudy records with close wins; flip every one-score game this season and the Rams are still 13-4, best in the NFC. On top of all that, the Rams might actually be a bit underrated given their relative poor play of late, because the team is getting key names back for the playoffs. You know about the league's best red zone threat Davante Adams, but the defense fall way off without DB Quentin Lake, and LT Alaric Jackson is their most important blocker. The Rams are all that and a bag of peanuts — consider that they're nearly the Super Bowl favorites even as a 5-seed, with an extra game and likely zero home games compared to 1-seed Seattle. That's how good the Rams are. And then there's the Panthers. Carolina is the worst team in the postseason field by any measure. With a -69 point differential, they're one of the worst playoff teams ever. They finished 24th in DVOA, near bottom quarter of the league, and have no particular discernible strength. Flip their one-score results and they'd have gone 4-13, worst in the league. The Panthers laid a complete egg against the Bucs in a de facto playoff opportunity last week but got here through the back door. Carolina went 2-5 against playoff teams this season, with an average score of 28-to-14, scoring 16 or fewer points in all but one game. The Panthers averaged just 10.2 PPG in those five losses, losing by 11, 16, 17, 29, and 31 points. Of course, one of those two wins was against the Rams — so let's talk about it. That game should make us more confident for LA, not less. The Rams absolutely throttled Carolina for 98% of that game. They finished with 7.4 yards a play and a massive 61-to-39% Success Rate advantage, including 76% for the Rams on running plays, the best by any team all season. LA only even made it to third down five times! LA lost because Matthew Stafford threw a tipped interception in the end zone, the a pick-6 on his next pass, and because Bryce Young completed two outlier long TD passes on fourth down, a swing of 11.5 EPA on those two plays alone. But the Rams were better in that game. Far better. Most games with those underlying numbers end in a Rams victory by three touchdowns. This one might. This just isn't the matchup for Carolina. The Panthers rank 27th in EPA per play defending motion plays. The Rams rank top four in both volume and EPA per play in motion, a Sean McVay staple. Carolina ranks 31st in EPA on third down defensively and 32nd in pressure, so Stafford should pick them apart. The Panthers are bottom 10 against WR1s by DVOA — oh hey, Puka Nacua — and 30th against tight ends, with the Rams loading up on 13 personnel. LA should be especially successful running, like it was the first matchup. Carolina is particularly terrible against inside runs, and the Rams have exploded running inside over the back half of the season, leaping from 22nd to 8th in EPA per play. Meanwhile, Carolina is the worst team in the playoff field at finding explosives, and the Panthers also rank 25th in red zone efficiency on offense, up against the No. 3 defense in that part of the field. So the Panthers probably won't move the ball routinely, shouldn't break off many big long plays, and likely won't punch it in on the rare times they do get close to scoring, and they also have virtually no shot of stopping the Rams unless they stop themselves. Ruh roh. Of course, playoff games are never this easy. It's still an outdoor rainy game for a dome team, and it's still a road playoff game. Any number of underdog trends will remind you to bet on home playoff dogs, especially teams at .500 or below this opening round. Those are small-sample trends, though, and they ignore some trends pointing strongly in the opposite direction. Wild Card round hosts that missed last year's playoffs are just 14-30 ATS (32%), and quarterbacks making their playoff debut against experience postseason QBs are 20-39-1 ATS (34%). Carolina wasn't supposed to be here, Bryce Young has never been here before, and history strongly suggests this could be a tough transition. As for the Rams, who earned this softer matchup with a win last week, road teams on a one-game win streak are 16-4-1 ATS (80%) this round in our system. And about that rematch? Teams that lost to a non-division opponent in their 12th game or later are 7-2 ATS in the playoff rematch over the last decade, covering by over a touchdown. This is only the fourth instance in the past 25 years of such a playoff rematch where the losing team is favored by over a TD in the rematch — the previous four losers won the rematch by an average of 15 PPG. Part of the reason teams often underperform as big favorites against these .500-type squads is because they mentally overlook them, already thinking about the next matchup. The Rams already know not to overlook the Panthers — they just lost to them, and they'd likely be sitting at home enjoying a bye right now if they had won that game. Suffice to say Carolina will have LA's attention. I bet Rams -10 Sunday night on the Hot Read, and I'm happy to take them -10.5. I'm playing alt lines too, because this could get ugly. Carolina has struggled to score against playoff opponents all season, and eight of the Rams' 12 wins have been by 14+ points, with three of them by at least 24. I don't trust the Panthers to score, and the Rams should be able to name their number on Saturday in one of the biggest playoff mismatches I can remember. Play Rams -12.5 at +118 (bet365) and put a portion of your bet on Rams -23.5 at +420 (FanDuel) in case this gets ugly.

This is another game I make nearly a coin flip. It's clear the Packers offense and Denver defense are each team's better units, so that matches up well, and there are some questions about the other units on each side. Denver's offense is actually trending up, fringe top 10 by DVOA over the last six games, and Bo Nix's advanced metrics are looking much better than they did early this season too. That Broncos offense has struggled early in games though. It's bottom 10 by DVOA in each of the first three quarters before leaping to 7th in the fourth quarter, and the Packers offense leads the league in that fourth-quarter metric. That matches the eye test. Both coaches play conservative football for much of the game before finally taking the training wheels off late and letting the offense do what it needs to do to get over the line. The Packers lead the league in fourth quarter scoring at 9.5 PPG, and the Broncos aren't far behind at 8.3 (6th). Packers games are also a league-best 10-3 to the over (77%). Give me the fourth quarter over 11.5 (FanDuel). Some books offer other fun fourth quarter lines, since we'll be locked in late on this one anyway. I like betting the fourth quarter to be the highest scoring quarter at +225 (DraftKings). It's a fun bet and could mean some fireworks late, and in a game that leans under overall, just the over 11.5 may well hit that anyway. I also like parlaying that fourth quarter over 11.5 with a game under 42.5 as a negatively-correlated SGP at +430 (DraftKings), but don't go crazy since it's really threading the needle on a game script.

We bet Broncos -2.5 on last week's Lookahead and it already hit the key number by Sunday night after Denver beat Green Bay convincingly. It hasn't gone far, though, because the Jaguars had a blowout win themselves last week and are one of the hottest teams in the league, top three by DVOA over the last six weeks. Liam Coen's once-rejuvenated rushing attack has totally disappeared, but Jacksonville ranks top five in passing attack and in both rushing and passing defense during that stretch by DVOA. This is where context matters, though. During that stretch, the Jags demolished the terrible Titans and Jets, and they eked by the struggling Cardinals in overtime. The big wins raising all the metrics were comfortable wins against the Chargers and Colts, but both those teams have been besieged by injuries and Jacksonville caught them at just the right time, getting "credit" for wins probably not as good as they look. Then again, it's not like Denver has pulled away from the crowd. Denver has 12 wins, but 11 of them have come from behind. The Broncos are 6-8 ATS in the first half but 9-5 ATS after the break, doing their best work late. The team has been especially lackluster in the first quarter, where the defense ranks below average by DVOA before being elite the rest of the game, and the offense ranks bottom five while it leaps to top 10 after that. Just look at the scores of the last six first quarters in Denver games (with their score first): 0-3, 7-7, 3-0, 6-3, 0-7, and 0-3. That's a meager 2.7 PPG, and the Broncos led only twice, both times by a field goal. By contrast, Jacksonville has played its best ball early in games. Liam Coen's scripted plays are working and Trevor Lawrence is playing great ball early. The Jags are 9-5 ATS in the first half, and they rank top five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter. I still like Denver in the game, but I like Jacksonville early. I'll play the Jaguars first quarter moneyline at +125 (bet365). I far prefer that to Jags +0.5 at -130, no need to pay 55 cents to win a tie instead of pushing it. That also sets up a familiar script for the Broncos, so bet Denver at +170 to win from behind (DraftKings), which has cashed in all but one Broncos victory. You can also parlay Jaguars 1Q ML with a Broncos win and get a negative correlation boost at +365 (DraftKings).

I love to invest in long-shot name props, and Rasheen Ali is my guy on Sunday night. Derrick Henry might finally be cooked. He's played only 82 snaps in the last three games, just 45%. Ravens fans want more Keaton Mitchell but he's playing only 8-to-12 snaps a game, and Justice Hill was getting 15-to-20 but he's on IR. Enter Marshall sophomore Rasheen Ali, who has the best PFF grade for any RB on this team and has become the third down back for John Harbaugh. Ali has played 29, 27, and 11 snaps the last three games — just five per game less than Henry, and he actually led the team in RB snaps in one of those! His low snap count came in last week's shutout win, so if the Patriots put the Ravens in passing situations, that should be even better for Ali. New England allows the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs so far this season but the third-most receptions to them, driven by game script. New England has allowed 6+ RB receptions in over half its games (8 of 14), including games with eight, nine, nine, and 11 RB catches. Because Ali is mostly unknown, we're getting some juicy numbers, and I'm taking the full Rasheen Ali escalator. Start with 2+ catches at +155 (bet365), a number Ali already hit each of the last two weeks, and then play 3+ receptions at +475 along with 4+ at +1200. Ali also had a 30-yard catch last week, so let's play 30+ yards at +1000 and touch 40+ at +1650 too (all at bet365). If New England gets its early lead, we could see a surprising amount of Rasheen Ali, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him catch four or five passes and make a real difference.

I don't trust either of these teams much. The Bucs have won one of their last seven, and Carolina's -67 point differential would be the worst ever by a playoff team. I'm not playing a side here, but I'd lean Bucs if forced to play. Even playing hurt, I still trust Baker Mayfield more than Bryce Young, and I'll bet on Tampa's veteran postseason experience. Still, I'm not interested at Bucs -3 at the key number. But what if the Bucs win? Tampa Bay would still need a Saints win in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch the division and make the postseason, but the Saints have been the best team in the division for half a season already, so the Bucs should like their chances. At that point the Bucs get a home playoff game against, most likely, the Seahawks or Rams. And that's where I'm ready to pounce. Seattle and LA are my top two power-rated teams in the league by a wide margin, and whoever makes the playoffs from the NFC South will be my worst playoff team. I already bet Seattle -6.5 in Tampa Bay on the contingent Lookahead line at FanDuel. I'd make both the Seahawks and Rams more than a touchdown favorite in Tampa. If the Bucs do win this weekend and get help from the Saints, I think they get blown out in the playoffs anyway. I'm betting the Bucs' "stage of elimination" to lose in the Wild Card Round at +500 (DraftKings). That's priced at 17% and I make it around 22%, simply parlaying three teams I like better in their matchup. If Tampa Bay does survive the weekend, this is suddenly a +500 moneyline ticket on Tampa's opponent next week — juicy!

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

🔥 Wild Card Rd Hot Read 🔥 (already bet before Sunday, adding a touch so you get the notification)

The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

We didn’t get to go through all the games on the pod but this was another early Hot Read. I have four strong unders trends, plus Philly game 7-1 to under since bye (not counting wk18 rest) averaging <34. Niners offense has been elite vs bad D but poor vs even avg D. Hoped for 47 cuz key but total is slipping so grabbing now.