Brandon Anderson

I don't trust either of these teams much. The Bucs have won one of their last seven, and Carolina's -67 point differential would be the worst ever by a playoff team. I'm not playing a side here, but I'd lean Bucs if forced to play. Even playing hurt, I still trust Baker Mayfield more than Bryce Young, and I'll bet on Tampa's veteran postseason experience. Still, I'm not interested at Bucs -3 at the key number. But what if the Bucs win? Tampa Bay would still need a Saints win in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch the division and make the postseason, but the Saints have been the best team in the division for half a season already, so the Bucs should like their chances. At that point the Bucs get a home playoff game against, most likely, the Seahawks or Rams. And that's where I'm ready to pounce. Seattle and LA are my top two power-rated teams in the league by a wide margin, and whoever makes the playoffs from the NFC South will be my worst playoff team. I already bet Seattle -6.5 in Tampa Bay on the contingent Lookahead line at FanDuel. I'd make both the Seahawks and Rams more than a touchdown favorite in Tampa. If the Bucs do win this weekend and get help from the Saints, I think they get blown out in the playoffs anyway. I'm betting the Bucs' "stage of elimination" to lose in the Wild Card Round at +500 (DraftKings). That's priced at 17% and I make it around 22%, simply parlaying three teams I like better in their matchup. If Tampa Bay does survive the weekend, this is suddenly a +500 moneyline ticket on Tampa's opponent next week — juicy!

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

One of these teams will win the division and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not. That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick. Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game. One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans. If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses. I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel. One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.

The line on this game makes zero sense. The Packers are road favorites?! Green Bay's market rating hasn't caught up to how poorly the Packers have played down the stretch, losing four straight as they enter the playoffs. The Packers ranked 9th in DVOA defensively over the first half of the season, but they're down to 24th over the last six weeks and fading hard, first against the pass and now against the run too. The rushing offense has also fallen off hard with the line struggling. The Bears aren't a good defense, but they're closer to league average over the back stretch of the season after returning a number of healthy bodies, and that makes this unit much better than Green Bay's. Chicago is the better defense and offense right now, and the Packers were just 2-4 against playoff teams this season. Green Bay has also been far worse on the road defensively, bottom 10 on the season. Chicago has too, for that matter, ranked 30th on the road versus top half of the league at home, but this game is in Chicago — yet another advantage for the Bears. I make the Bears better than a field goal favorite at home, and that led me to grab Bears -104 on the moneyline on Sunday night. But the line has held tight and may even be creeping the other direction. And after digging more into the matchup all week, I'm starting to see why. The Packers rank top five in explosive plays on both offense and defense; the Bears rank bottom 10 defensively there, meaning Chicago's defense could hold up play after play all game, falter two or three times, and blow it anyway. Green Bay ranks top three in EPA on playaction passes; the Bears defense is bottom 10. The Packers are top five attacking the middle of the field; Bears bottom 10 again. Ditto defending 11 personnel, where Green Bay ranks No. 1. The Packers are built specifically to attack Chicago's biggest weaknesses, even if they'll do so slowly and methodically with a run-heavy script that should work against a bottom 10 run defense. Green Bay's defense could also find some answers. It ranks top 10 on just first downs, especially against the pass, and first downs are where Chicago has thrived all season at No. 2 in DVOA, falling to average on any other down. If the Packers force Caleb Williams to play in 2nd-and-long instead of 2nd-and-3 all game, that will be a huge swing. The Packers run defense isn't good, but it's much worse against inside runs; the Bears rushing attack has been great but is better outside. Chicago has shredded blitzes this season, but Green Bay blitzes among the least in football. Green Bay also got to rest last week, while Chicago played all game and pushed. Those trends warning us against the inexperience of Carolina and Bryce Young also warn us against Chicago and Caleb Williams, and they like the road team in division rematches in the playoffs too. I still have to bet the Bears since my numbers are so strong, and it's worth remembering that 7-seeds are just 1-10 SU since being added to the postseason picture, losing by 10 PPG. Still, it's Packers-Bears. Green bay has won 27 of the last 32 meetings and 12 of the last 14, and it dominated seven of eight quarters this season too, even with Jordan Love hurt for some of them. The last time the Bears beat the Packers in the playoffs was — are you ready for this? — the Sunday after the attack on Pearl Harbor! I'm not buying out of my Bears pick, but the matchup stuff has at least pushed me away from investing further. Instead, I'm looking to invest in unders. On a wintery Saturday in Chicago with possible winds and snow in freezing temperatures, it's a reminder that windy games have gone under 61% of the time the last five seasons. Both teams want to run the ball a ton, and that should shorten the clock. That's typically Green Bay's m.o. too, playing the underdog script. Home teams coming off a home loss are 10-0-1 to the under since 2016 in the playoffs. I'm specifically looking to play first-half unders, though. The Packers were 12-5 to the first-half under this season, while Chicago was 11-6, a combined 68% hit rate. But both teams were 12-5 to the over in the second half. Why is that? Chicago's offense has been far better late in games, 20th by DVOA in the first half versus top five after halftime, including No. 2 in the final quarter. Ben Johnson has been a wizard at halftime adjustments. Chicago's defense has also been at its best by far in just the first quarter, No. 6 by DVOA there versus bottom 10 every other quarter. Green Bay trends a similar direction offensively. The Packers are a league-average offense in the first quarter but rank top five every quarter after that. Matt LaFleur's offense can start maddeningly slow, easing into the waters before ramping things up late. In the two games we saw these teams play already this season, there were just six and 17 points at the half — but 26 and 32 in the second halves. In fact, both games were 0-to-0 at the end of the first quarter, slowly easing things in. I'm betting the first half under 22.5 (-104, BetRivers), and I'll build a little mineshaft along the way. Play just the first quarter under 9.5 too at -115 (Fanatics) and sprinkle a scoreless first quarter at +575 (bet365). In case a slow start does pair with a flurry of a finish yet again, you can also play a negatively correlated SGP using alt lines: first-half under 17.5 and second-half over 20.5 at +537 (FanDuel). Every one of those bets hit in both Packers-Bears games already this season. Let's hope they make them all 3-for-3.

This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend. I think it could be the AFC kingmaker. The Jaguars, not the Texans, are the hottest team in the league. Houston's winning streak is one game longer (nine versus eight), but Jacksonville rates as the much better team over the second half of the season. The Jaguars are No. 3 in DVOA with a top 10 offense, including top 5 passing, and the defense is even better — top five against both the run and the pass, and No. 3 overall. Buffalo is not hot at all, quite literally limping into the playoffs thanks to Josh Allen's foot injury. The Bills have no real receivers for Allen to throw to, and the defense is a big problem, fringe bottom 10 on the season. But Buffalo still has all that playoff experience and, of course, that super alien QB that can swing the entire playoffs if he gets hot. Buffalo's defense is the weak link on the field, especially the run defense. The question is whether Jacksonville's offense can take advantage of Buffalo's specific weaknesses. That's on Liam Coen's staff, and that young coaching staff has been brilliant and finding answers all season. Buffalo ranks bottom 10 against motion and under center plays by EPA, and Jacksonville ranks top 10 at both. The Jags are also up from bottom 10 in explosive plays offensively to top 10 over the back half of the season, while Buffalo's defense ranks bottom 10. Coen can expose Sean McDermott's defense, like many other teams have in past postseasons. But can the Jaguars run the ball? Jacksonville ranked top five in EPA per rush for the first half of the season as Coen worked his magic, just like he did in Tampa Bay last season, but that rushing attack has totally disappeared down the stretch to finish below league average. Buffalo ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL in rushing defense by DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Coen needs to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved. The run game looks like the key both ways. Jacksonville's run defense has been awesome all season, yet to allow a single 75-yard runner. The defense has been far better against outside runs though, and Buffalo's run game is a power rushing attack and much better attacking on inside runs, ranking 2nd in EPA per play. If Buffalo can control the game by running through the middle and limiting Jacksonville's rushing attack, the Bills will win. But the truth is that the Jaguars have been the far better team over the back half of the season — definitely on defense and special teams, probably even on offense too. Buffalo is also mostly untested. The Bills have faced only one top-10 DVOA opponent all season, and that was Houston. This is probably Buffalo's toughest game all season. The Bills went only 1-3 against teams that entered last weekend with a playoff berth wrapped up, and they scored 12, 20, and 19 in three of those games and seven in the first half against the Patriots before finally playing one good half for their only marquee win of the season. These are not the Bills of the last few years. And even those Bills have struggled on the road for awhile now. Buffalo's offense was elite at home (2nd in DVOA) but closer to league average on the road (13th) this season, and Buffalo is just 14-12 SU on the road since 2023, despite being a clear Super Bowl contender all three seasons. Those aren't exactly marquee wins either. They've come against Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick, and Shedeur Sanders. In fact, Josh Allen remains winless on the road in the postseason. He's 0-4 both straight up and ATS, and Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since 1993. The Jaguars have been awesome at home this season. Jacksonville ranked bottom 10 offensively on the road and league average on defense by DVOA but was a top-five home defense and fringe top-10 offense. The more I dug into things here, the more I liked Jacksonville — just so many coaching advantages and edges for the Jaguars — but I don't love betting coin flip spreads, especially in the playoffs, and especially against Josh Allen. We don't win any extra money for picking against Allen, you know. Instead, I'm going to get try to get my money by halftime and get out. The Jaguars are 11-6 ATS in the first half this season, second best in the NFL. The Bills were 5-12 ATS, tied for worst in the league with the lowly Saints, who did not win a single first quarter all season. Many of Jacksonville's metrics tell a similar story. The Jaguars offense is worse in the red zone, and it's also worse late in games. Coen sets the team up for success early, but Jacksonville's edge shrinks when it's just down to the talent on the field. The Jaguars have a top-five offense in the first quarter by DVOA but fall to bottom-five in the final quarter. Buffalo's first-half metrics have been terrible all season, especially in defense, but the Bills leap to top 10 by DVOA there after halftime. Let's lock in our best bet: Jaguars 1H +0.5 (-115, Caesars), preferable to a similarly priced moneyline since we can win a halftime tie. If you do like Jacksonville to win the game too, I think you have to be aggressive. I can see a world where the Jaguars are just the much better team and house the Bills, so maybe alts are in play. But if Jacksonville does win the battle of my top two AFC power rating teams, then they're a good investment to keep winning. I'll like Jacksonville in New England next week in a battle of team versus individual, and if that's not the matchup, then the Jags are at home again as the better team. I think Jacksonville has the right mix to make a surprise run all the way to the Super Bowl. I've got the Jags just under 20% to win the AFC, showing clear value on Jacksonville at +600 to win the AFC. I probably won't like the Jags in the Super Bowl so I'll bet that AFC ticket and then nibble a little on an exact Super Bowl outcome: Rams over Jaguars at +4000 (bet365). If you want a fun prop angle in this game, I like Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing yards at +950 (FanDuel). Allen averages 51.4 YPG in the playoffs on the ground, with 54 or more in over half his games. Jacksonville hasn't allowed a 75-yard runner and should limit James Cook some, and Etienne is unpredictable and often needs a long run to hit a high total. He averages just 55 YPG on the ground over the last 12 games. If Allen can push through the foot injury and give us some of us usual magic, that +950 could be juicy.

I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch. We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season. Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, WAY worse defensively. The offense ranks 7th by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season. In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, the Broncos finished outside the top-12 at both. Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the exact same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups. Denver is the 1-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC. Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad. The Broncos are not your typical 1-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential. We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated 1-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with. The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help. Josh Allen comes in banged up too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore. Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way. The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive. But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside but rank 2nd on inside runs. Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook. There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too. The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks top five against short passes by EPA. You beat the Bills defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their m.o. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score. That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple years ago. Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become. Favorites that won over 75% of their regular season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and 1-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver. And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix. Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix. When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time. When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades. Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense. Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two. When Josh Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and Allen has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses. That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would against Seattle in a Super Bowl too. I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock. Start with the Bills moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there. The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games. With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams-Bears game to give us a shot. Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly. Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double. If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel). Is it finally Buffalo's time? It is on Saturday.

For the entire back half of the season, I've had the Seahawks and Rams far ahead of the rest of the field in my power ratings. I have both teams more than a field goal ahead of any other team on a neutral field, and I like both in their matchups this weekend against outmatched, banged-up defenses. That sets up a Seattle-LA NFC Championship, and if we get that, it guarantees one of those two teams will play in the Super Bowl — as the clear favorite against any AFC opponent. It's never too late to play a futures bet. I bet a Seahawks-Rams ML parlay on Sunday night on the Hot Read, but we can take this a step further. Build a weekend moneyline parlay of Seahawks and Rams, then add "NFC participant to win Super Bowl" for a juicy +220 parlay at Caesars that's badly mispriced in a clearly correlated outcome.

Championship Round Hot Read! 🔥 Playing now at 5.5 with line starting to fade. Can add more if it ends up getting to 6+ later https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/afc-nfc-championship-predictions-picks-for-patriots-vs-broncos-rams-vs-seahawks

Longer logic to follow, but Dobbins just announced out so get these lines before they move up.

It's tough to learn a ton from Stidham's four regular season starts, but one big difference from Nix will likely be his sack avoidance. Stidham was sacked 13 times in his four starts, while Nix was sacked about once a game this season and does a great job limiting mistakes. Stidham can scramble some, but consistent trend you see in his starts is a ton of passes to running backs as a way to combat that pressure. In his two Denver starts, 21 of Stidham's 66 passes went to a running back, nearly one-third of them! He targeted RBs on eight of his preseason passes this season too in about one game worth of action. New England's defense ranked bottom five in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season but top five in RB receptions allowed. Twelve times this season a RB caught at least three passes against the Patriots, including seven times with at least five catches. That means it's time to invest in Denver rookie RB R.J. Harvey, especially with J.K. Dobbins out at least one more game. Harvey caught five passes last week for 46 yards on six targets, continuing an upward trend. He's seen at least four targets in six of his last seven games with 3+ catches in five of those and now 11-of-18 games on the season. In those 11 games with 3+ receptions, Harvey has at least 14 receiving yards every game and at least 18 in all but one, so play Harvey to go over 17.5 receiving yards at bet365. He's averaging 33 YPG in those 11 games, so play 30+ yards at +230, and take the escalator to 40+ yards at +450 (both bet365), a number he's hit in 36% of his games with at least three catches, including last week against Buffalo.

Longer logic to follow, but Dobbins just announced out so get these lines before they move up.

Adding tiny so you can see the pick logic and get 4.5 before it’s gone: These are two teams I haven't totally believed in all year — neither one has cracked the top seven of my power ratings all season — yet here we are in the AFC Championship Game, and none of that strength of schedule mumbo jumbo matters much anymore. I put Denver on fraud watch last week and loaded up on Buffalo stock, but the Broncos got the W. Did that prove us wrong, though? Hard to say. The Broncos needed five turnovers and about seven straight 50/50 calls to eke out a lucky win in overtime as home favorites, so was that really all that convincing? New England hasn't felt particularly overwhelming yet either. It feels more like the Patriots let both playoff opponents so far beat themselves, certainly a sound enough strategy when it works. And maybe it will a third straight week, now that the Patriots have lucked into Jarrett Stidham! By season-long numbers, the weak link on the field is New England's defense, which ranked 25th by DVOA for the season, bottom quarter of the league. Denver's offense actually leapt to the top quarter over the final third of the season — but that was with Bo Nix, of course. New England's offense had great metrics during the season but has been underwhelming at best in the playoffs, and Denver's much-ballyhooed defense has faded mightily down the stretch, too. The Patriots faced only one top-five defense the entire regular season but will now face their third in three weeks in the postseason. That one regular season matchup came against the Browns, and New England had only one drive over seven plays. The Patriots did find points with some explosive plays and short-field scores after turnovers, and that's what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs. But will that work against Denver? New England leads the league in deep passing EPA and explosives, including almost 20% of its passing plays, but Denver's defense was best in the league limiting explosive plays this season at just 8%. That's once every eight plays the Patriots would typically expect a chunk play that this Broncos defense might take away, and Drake Maye's offense has not shown an ability to go on long sustained drives these playoffs. Denver's run defense matches up well too, shutting down outside runs and funneling the run inside. Buffalo exploited that with a power rushing attack, but New England has not run well inside and may not get its outside explosives. The Patriots offensive line has also struggled in these playoffs. Rookie Will Campbell ranks just 87th of 98 tackles in pressure rate allowed since returning from injury, and he and fellow rookie Jared Wilson leave the left side of the line quite vulnerable against Nik Bonitto and a Broncos defensive front that led the league in pressures this season. New England also ranks below average in red zone offense and dead last defensively, while Denver ranks top five in both areas. Red zone is invariably tiny sample, but if those trends hold up, that could mean seven turning into three a time or two, and that can swing a game. What about New England's defense? The Patriots have looked pretty good on that end in the playoffs, but this is probably a sell-high spot for tha tunit. Teams that allow 16 points or less in both playoff games heading into the Conference Championship are 0-6 SU. New England's defense has lived a charmed life against terrible Texans and Chargers offensive lines, both maybe bottom five in the entire league. Denver's offensive line will be like going from rookie to all-Pro on Madden, since the Broncos are a top three unit. Defense gets much harder when you're not dominating the trenches, and New England's pass rush has been unreliable for most of the season. Its run defense has also cratered down the stretch, though the return of Milton Williams has helped. If Denver can dominate the trenches, the Broncos have a real chance. In particular, that outstanding offensive line can give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Denver ranks top five in short passing volume, so Stidham should be able to stand and deliver, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball some and maybe even break some long outside runs. The matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages. And this line is all wrong. Bo Nix represented floor for the Broncos, not ceiling. But what if that great offensive line and Sean Payton's coaching staff were just as responsible for the floor? Might Stidham slot right in without a huge dropoff? This spread was listed as Broncos -1.5 before last weekend but reopened at Patriots -5.5, which means the Nix injury swung the line a full seven points. That's down to six now but it's still far too high. I've seen book makers suggest about four points, and I'd make it more like two or three, but six or seven is absurd, closer to what someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is worth. The truth is that we don't know a ton about Stidham after four career starts, though he did drop 365 yards and three scores in his debut as a 10-point underdog against the No. 1 defense 49ers in an overtime loss. It's worth noting, though, that quarterbacks making their first start of the season in the playoffs are an ugly 1-7 SU since 1950, and that one win was by Frank Reich in a game he trailed 35-3. It will be tough for the Broncos to win — but they have a great chance to cover this inflated line. Home playoff dogs of four or more points are 5-0 ATS over the last two decades, covering by 8.0 PPG. They lost three of those games in one-score hearbreakers, but they've been competitive in every game. Sean Payton also has a great history with backup quarterbacks at 14-7 ATS, including 12-9 SU, and those numbers get even better when you filter out some meaningless last-week-of-season games. It's almost always a good idea to bet on the 1-seed in the Conference Championship. They're 21-5 SU since 2006, including 12-3 against 2-seeds and an impressive 5-1 as anything worse than a field goal favorite, with an average margin of +10.0 PPG. This line is just all wrong. New England should not be favored by anywhere near this much on the road in a tough environment in such a big spot, and the Broncos should never have been downgraded this far from Nix to Stidham. Grab Broncos +5.5 (DraftKings) or best number you can find above the key number. I think the Patriots win a squeaker, but if you do think Denver wins, you should consider playing more aggressively than a simple +210 moneyline. That's barely worth the squeeze, and do you really want Stidham having to win a close one late against Maye? If you like Denver to win, you probably need a more comfortable game script, with Denver's defense dominating, maybe even creating a couple big turnovers or a defensive score. Skip the moneyline and try something a bit more aggressive, something like Broncos -5.5 at +350 or Broncos -9.5 at +630 (FanDuel).

These are two teams I haven't totally believed in all year — neither one has cracked the top seven of my power ratings all season — yet here we are in the AFC Championship Game, and none of that strength of schedule mumbo jumbo matters much anymore. I put Denver on fraud watch last week and loaded up on Buffalo stock, but the Broncos got the W. Did that prove us wrong, though? Hard to say. The Broncos needed five turnovers and about seven straight 50/50 calls to eke out a lucky win in overtime as home favorites, so was that really all that convincing? New England hasn't felt particularly overwhelming yet either. It feels more like the Patriots let both playoff opponents so far beat themselves, certainly a sound enough strategy when it works. And maybe it will a third straight week, now that the Patriots have lucked into Jarrett Stidham! By season-long numbers, the weak link on the field is New England's defense, which ranked 25th by DVOA for the season, bottom quarter of the league. Denver's offense actually leapt to the top quarter over the final third of the season — but that was with Bo Nix, of course. New England's offense had great metrics during the season but has been underwhelming at best in the playoffs, and Denver's much-ballyhooed defense has faded mightily down the stretch, too. The Patriots faced only one top-five defense the entire regular season but will now face their third in three weeks in the postseason. That one regular season matchup came against the Browns, and New England had only one drive over seven plays. The Patriots did find points with some explosive plays and short-field scores after turnovers, and that's what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs. But will that work against Denver? New England leads the league in deep passing EPA and explosives, including almost 20% of its passing plays, but Denver's defense was best in the league limiting explosive plays this season at just 8%. That's once every eight plays the Patriots would typically expect a chunk play that this Broncos defense might take away, and Drake Maye's offense has not shown an ability to go on long sustained drives these playoffs. Denver's run defense matches up well too, shutting down outside runs and funneling the run inside. Buffalo exploited that with a power rushing attack, but New England has not run well inside and may not get its outside explosives. The Patriots offensive line has also struggled in these playoffs. Rookie Will Campbell ranks just 87th of 98 tackles in pressure rate allowed since returning from injury, and he and fellow rookie Jared Wilson leave the left side of the line quite vulnerable against Nik Bonitto and a Broncos defensive front that led the league in pressures this season. New England also ranks below average in red zone offense and dead last defensively, while Denver ranks top five in both areas. Red zone is invariably tiny sample, but if those trends hold up, that could mean seven turning into three a time or two, and that can swing a game. What about New England's defense? The Patriots have looked pretty good on that end in the playoffs, but this is probably a sell-high spot for tha tunit. Teams that allow 16 points or less in both playoff games heading into the Conference Championship are 0-6 SU. New England's defense has lived a charmed life against terrible Texans and Chargers offensive lines, both maybe bottom five in the entire league. Denver's offensive line will be like going from rookie to all-Pro on Madden, since the Broncos are a top three unit. Defense gets much harder when you're not dominating the trenches, and New England's pass rush has been unreliable for most of the season. Its run defense has also cratered down the stretch, though the return of Milton Williams has helped. If Denver can dominate the trenches, the Broncos have a real chance. In particular, that outstanding offensive line can give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Denver ranks top five in short passing volume, so Stidham should be able to stand and deliver, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball some and maybe even break some long outside runs. The matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages. And this line is all wrong. Bo Nix represented floor for the Broncos, not ceiling. But what if that great offensive line and Sean Payton's coaching staff were just as responsible for the floor? Might Stidham slot right in without a huge dropoff? This spread was listed as Broncos -1.5 before last weekend but reopened at Patriots -5.5, which means the Nix injury swung the line a full seven points. That's down to six now but it's still far too high. I've seen book makers suggest about four points, and I'd make it more like two or three, but six or seven is absurd, closer to what someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is worth. The truth is that we don't know a ton about Stidham after four career starts, though he did drop 365 yards and three scores in his debut as a 10-point underdog against the No. 1 defense 49ers in an overtime loss. It's worth noting, though, that quarterbacks making their first start of the season in the playoffs are an ugly 1-7 SU since 1950, and that one win was by Frank Reich in a game he trailed 35-3. It will be tough for the Broncos to win — but they have a great chance to cover this inflated line. Home playoff dogs of four or more points are 5-0 ATS over the last two decades, covering by 8.0 PPG. They lost three of those games in one-score hearbreakers, but they've been competitive in every game. Sean Payton also has a great history with backup quarterbacks at 14-7 ATS, including 12-9 SU, and those numbers get even better when you filter out some meaningless last-week-of-season games. It's almost always a good idea to bet on the 1-seed in the Conference Championship. They're 21-5 SU since 2006, including 12-3 against 2-seeds and an impressive 5-1 as anything worse than a field goal favorite, with an average margin of +10.0 PPG. This line is just all wrong. New England should not be favored by anywhere near this much on the road in a tough environment in such a big spot, and the Broncos should never have been downgraded this far from Nix to Stidham. Grab Broncos +5.5 (DraftKings) or best number you can find above the key number. I think the Patriots win a squeaker, but if you do think Denver wins, you should consider playing more aggressively than a simple +210 moneyline. That's barely worth the squeeze, and do you really want Stidham having to win a close one late against Maye? If you like Denver to win, you probably need a more comfortable game script, with Denver's defense dominating, maybe even creating a couple big turnovers or a defensive score. Skip the moneyline and try something a bit more aggressive, something like Broncos -5.5 at +350 or Broncos -9.5 at +630 (FanDuel).

These are two teams I haven't totally believed in all year — neither one has cracked the top seven of my power ratings all season — yet here we are in the AFC Championship Game, and none of that strength of schedule mumbo jumbo matters much anymore. I put Denver on fraud watch last week and loaded up on Buffalo stock, but the Broncos got the W. Did that prove us wrong, though? Hard to say. The Broncos needed five turnovers and about seven straight 50/50 calls to eke out a lucky win in overtime as home favorites, so was that really all that convincing? New England hasn't felt particularly overwhelming yet either. It feels more like the Patriots let both playoff opponents so far beat themselves, certainly a sound enough strategy when it works. And maybe it will a third straight week, now that the Patriots have lucked into Jarrett Stidham! By season-long numbers, the weak link on the field is New England's defense, which ranked 25th by DVOA for the season, bottom quarter of the league. Denver's offense actually leapt to the top quarter over the final third of the season — but that was with Bo Nix, of course. New England's offense had great metrics during the season but has been underwhelming at best in the playoffs, and Denver's much-ballyhooed defense has faded mightily down the stretch, too. The Patriots faced only one top-five defense the entire regular season but will now face their third in three weeks in the postseason. That one regular season matchup came against the Browns, and New England had only one drive over seven plays. The Patriots did find points with some explosive plays and short-field scores after turnovers, and that's what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs. But will that work against Denver? New England leads the league in deep passing EPA and explosives, including almost 20% of its passing plays, but Denver's defense was best in the league limiting explosive plays this season at just 8%. That's once every eight plays the Patriots would typically expect a chunk play that this Broncos defense might take away, and Drake Maye's offense has not shown an ability to go on long sustained drives these playoffs. Denver's run defense matches up well too, shutting down outside runs and funneling the run inside. Buffalo exploited that with a power rushing attack, but New England has not run well inside and may not get its outside explosives. The Patriots offensive line has also struggled in these playoffs. Rookie Will Campbell ranks just 87th of 98 tackles in pressure rate allowed since returning from injury, and he and fellow rookie Jared Wilson leave the left side of the line quite vulnerable against Nik Bonitto and a Broncos defensive front that led the league in pressures this season. New England also ranks below average in red zone offense and dead last defensively, while Denver ranks top five in both areas. Red zone is invariably tiny sample, but if those trends hold up, that could mean seven turning into three a time or two, and that can swing a game. What about New England's defense? The Patriots have looked pretty good on that end in the playoffs, but this is probably a sell-high spot for tha tunit. Teams that allow 16 points or less in both playoff games heading into the Conference Championship are 0-6 SU. New England's defense has lived a charmed life against terrible Texans and Chargers offensive lines, both maybe bottom five in the entire league. Denver's offensive line will be like going from rookie to all-Pro on Madden, since the Broncos are a top three unit. Defense gets much harder when you're not dominating the trenches, and New England's pass rush has been unreliable for most of the season. Its run defense has also cratered down the stretch, though the return of Milton Williams has helped. If Denver can dominate the trenches, the Broncos have a real chance. In particular, that outstanding offensive line can give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Denver ranks top five in short passing volume, so Stidham should be able to stand and deliver, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball some and maybe even break some long outside runs. The matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages. And this line is all wrong. Bo Nix represented floor for the Broncos, not ceiling. But what if that great offensive line and Sean Payton's coaching staff were just as responsible for the floor? Might Stidham slot right in without a huge dropoff? This spread was listed as Broncos -1.5 before last weekend but reopened at Patriots -5.5, which means the Nix injury swung the line a full seven points. That's down to six now but it's still far too high. I've seen book makers suggest about four points, and I'd make it more like two or three, but six or seven is absurd, closer to what someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is worth. The truth is that we don't know a ton about Stidham after four career starts, though he did drop 365 yards and three scores in his debut as a 10-point underdog against the No. 1 defense 49ers in an overtime loss. It's worth noting, though, that quarterbacks making their first start of the season in the playoffs are an ugly 1-7 SU since 1950, and that one win was by Frank Reich in a game he trailed 35-3. It will be tough for the Broncos to win — but they have a great chance to cover this inflated line. Home playoff dogs of four or more points are 5-0 ATS over the last two decades, covering by 8.0 PPG. They lost three of those games in one-score hearbreakers, but they've been competitive in every game. Sean Payton also has a great history with backup quarterbacks at 14-7 ATS, including 12-9 SU, and those numbers get even better when you filter out some meaningless last-week-of-season games. It's almost always a good idea to bet on the 1-seed in the Conference Championship. They're 21-5 SU since 2006, including 12-3 against 2-seeds and an impressive 5-1 as anything worse than a field goal favorite, with an average margin of +10.0 PPG. This line is just all wrong. New England should not be favored by anywhere near this much on the road in a tough environment in such a big spot, and the Broncos should never have been downgraded this far from Nix to Stidham. Grab Broncos +5.5 (DraftKings) or best number you can find above the key number. I think the Patriots win a squeaker, but if you do think Denver wins, you should consider playing more aggressively than a simple +210 moneyline. That's barely worth the squeeze, and do you really want Stidham having to win a close one late against Maye? If you like Denver to win, you probably need a more comfortable game script, with Denver's defense dominating, maybe even creating a couple big turnovers or a defensive score. Skip the moneyline and try something a bit more aggressive, something like Broncos -5.5 at +350 or Broncos -9.5 at +630 (FanDuel).

Adding small so you can see my lean / analysis: This game is awesome and may well be the actual Super Bowl. Neither team has lost a game by more than a touchdown all season, and this is the league's No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 defense. It's the best DVOA matchup in the history of the metric! Both earlier matchups were electric and among the games of the season, and I've had both these teams clearly ahead of the rest of the NFL for half the season now. I've had the Rams firmly ahead of Seattle for most of that stretch, but there's reason to believe that gap is closing. The Rams are 0-2 ATS in the playoffs with a pair of three-point wins, both of which could have been losses. Matthew Stafford played MVP ball all season but hasn't looked the same in the playoffs. Is it the finger injury? The outdoor conditions? Whatever it is, a Rams offense that lapped the field all season long has not looked itself or close in the postseason. Seattle has an enormous rest and health advantage here. The Seahawks played a day earlier than the Rams, and they also played a snoozer and didn't have to expend full energy, and after coming off two full weeks of rest. The Rams never got a week off thanks to that last Seattle loss, and they're now coming off a long, cold overtime game. Only two of the last 20 teams to make the Super Bowl got there without a rest week at some point before. This is the price the Rams pay for blowing that Seattle game — could all that attrition finally catch up to LA now? The first time these teams played back in Week 11, Seattle's offense got exposed. Before that game, the Seahawks had made a living by loading the field with heavy personnel on early downs, baiting the opponent to match with extra men in the box, then beat the opponent with the pass. Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA through 10 games. Then they played the Rams in Week 11, and Chris Shula's defense chose to play tendencies, not personnel. They stuck with light boxes and a ton of defensive backs in zone, and Sam Darnold was terrible, throwing four interceptions in the loss. From that game forward, with other opponents copying the Rams and refusing to match heavy, Seattle's passing attack plummeted all the way to 25th in DVOA, bottom quarter of the league. The rushing attack improved from 21st to 6th during that stretch, and that seems good for the run-heaviest team in the league, but it's because opponents are content shutting down the pass instead. The Rams rank third in EPA per play against the run and should hold their own against Seattle even without loading up the box, especially with Zach Charbonnet missing behind Kenneth Walker. LA can also make life miserable for Sam Darnold. The Rams rank top-five in pressure rate and should make Darnold uncomfortable all game. They also play very heavy zone, and Darnold is below league average against zone, compared to top five against man. He threw six interceptions in the two Rams games this season — compared to eight against everyone else all season! Even as the 1-seed, Seattle had the second-most giveaways in the NFL this season. They had 10 turnovers in their three losses. If Seattle can give Darnold time, though, there's reason to believe Seattle can find some room to pass. The Rams pass defense has fallen apart over the past couple months, and the corners are a clear weak spot. The linebackers may be too, especially against Seattle's elite playaction. The Seahawks can find some explosive passes down the field against this defense. On the other side of the ball, we get the elite Rams offense against the elite Seahawks defense — but only one of those units has played like that of late. The Rams offense has looked mostly average, and a lot of that is on Stafford's shoulders. Whether it's an injury or the outdoors conditions, this unit just hasn't looked in rhythm — maybe since that loss to Seattle. The Rams have run the ball well all season but sport one of the league's highest passing rates and have abandoned the run far too quickly against both the Panthers and Bears this postseason. Seattle's run defense is outstanding even with so many defensive backs typically on the field. The Seahawks are elite against playaction and motion, all those Sean McVay bells and whistles. They're also the second-best defense in the league limiting explosive plays, so the Rams may not find many chunk plays. They did put up almost 600 yards against Seattle in the last meeting though, even without Davante Adams, and the Rams offensive line is a significant strength and finally healthy now. Stafford has yet to be sacked in three games against Mike Macdonald's Seahawks defense, and if he gets time, he's going find Adams and Puka Nacua eventually. Any angle in this game has a counter angle, and the truth is that we may not know right now just how much we should believe in either offense, nor in the Rams defense. We do know Seattle's defense is great, and we also know the Seahawks will have a massive special teams advantage. Watch starting field position in particular, which the Rams have fallen off in a huge way without K Joshua Karty, and where Seattle is best in the league. Those extra 10 or 15 yards of field position drive after drive add up, and in a game those close, special teams could be the difference. Remember, 1 seeds in the Conference Championship are 21-5 SU since 2006 and 5-1 as anything under a field goal favorite. The No. 1 scoring offense has met the No. 1 defense in the Conference Championship or later eight times since the merger. The defense has come out on top, going 7-1 SU in those matchups. This has also been a great round to back the favorite in a division matchup, with favorites 5-0 SU over the past two decades. There's also ongoing concern about the Rams playing outdoors in a tough environment. Dome teams playing outdoors in the playoffs are 20-31-1 ATS (39%) the last couple decades, with LA 0-2 in that spot this postseason, and it gets worse. Indoor teams playing the Conference Championship outdoors on the road are an ugly 0-15 SU since the merger. This is such a close matchup that those little edges — Seattle's special teams, its home-field advantage where the Seahawks have won 11 straight playoffs games with fans in the stands, and the rest and health advantages — might just be the difference. I thought the Rams were the better team in the regular season, but I think this line is about right given the spot. I'd be tempted to nibble Rams +3 if available at the key number but will otherwise let our preseason +7000 Seahawks Super Bowl ticket ride — Seattle is the favorite after all.

The two OPOY favorites face off here, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a much easier matchup than Puka Nacua. The Seahawks rank first by DVOA against WR1s but the Rams are just below league average. JSN found plenty of room against LA in the previous two matchups, racking up 9/105 and 8/96 on 25 targets. He's had at least seven catches in 12-of-18 games, but it gets better. Four of those six times with six or fewer catches came in games Seattle won by 21 or more, like last week. He's had at least seven catches in 10 of Seattle's 12 other games. This shouldn't be a blowout, and it's hard to see the Rams corners shutting JSN down. Play over 6.5 receptions at BetMGM (-105).

On the other side of the ball, look for Kyren Williams to be involved as a receiver. Seattle allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season but the most RB receptions. Blake Corum had only eight catches all season, so that means Williams, and he's been much more involved in the passing game lately. He averaged just 1.9 catches for 14.8 yards the first 14 games but is up to 3.0/24.4 the last five games, an increase of over 50%. That fits the pattern in the two Seattle games, too. The first fell in that earlier stretch and saw just one Williams catch for five yards on two targets, but he had three catches on six targets for 15 yards in the rematch. Williams has at least 11 receiving yards in all 13 games this season when he catches at least two passes, so we'll use yards as a proxy. Play Kyren Williams over 11.5 receiving yards (BetRivers, -112), and put a portion of your bet on 30+ yards at +425 (bet365), a number he's hit in half his six games with at least three catches. Seattle has allowed a 30-yard RB receiver eight times already this season.

On the other side of the ball, look for Kyren Williams to be involved as a receiver. Seattle allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season but the most RB receptions. Blake Corum had only eight catches all season, so that means Williams, and he's been much more involved in the passing game lately. He averaged just 1.9 catches for 14.8 yards the first 14 games but is up to 3.0/24.4 the last five games, an increase of over 50%. That fits the pattern in the two Seattle games, too. The first fell in that earlier stretch and saw just one Williams catch for five yards on two targets, but he had three catches on six targets for 15 yards in the rematch. Williams has at least 11 receiving yards in all 13 games this season when he catches at least two passes, so we'll use yards as a proxy. Play Kyren Williams over 11.5 receiving yards (BetRivers, -112), and put a portion of your bet on 30+ yards at +425 (bet365), a number he's hit in half his six games with at least three catches. Seattle has allowed a 30-yard RB receiver eight times already this season.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

This is the most fun bet you can make this weekend. Seattle made a big midseason trade for Rashid Shaheed and already saw the deal pay off when he returned the first play of Seattle's postseason 95 yards for an opening kickoff TD against the 49ers. Shaheed also ran twice for 27 yards, and that's been his role for Seattle. Less volume like with the Saints, and more of a Percy Harvin gadget role — special teams, deep passes, and a few runs. Shaheed played nine snaps at RB last week, and he played 17 against the Rams. He should see even more such snaps with Charbonnet out. He's logged a rush nine times in 10 games with Seattle, with at least one in both Rams games — one of them for 31 yards. I'm betting Rasheed Shaheed over 0.5 rushing yards (bet365). He's cleared that line in six of 10 Seattle games (60%) and we really just need one run — or even a backward screen pass type play. A receiver has run for positive yardage in 9-of-19 Rams games, and the Seahawks were responsible for three of those — two by Shaheed. And as fast as Shaheed is, we'd be crazy not to take the escalator. He had a 30-yard run just last week and a 31-yarder against the Rams earlier this season. Play 20+ rushing yards at +800 and then 30+ yards at +1500, both at bet365. We may only get one shot at this all game, so let's hope Shaheed make it count.

This is the most fun bet you can make this weekend. Seattle made a big midseason trade for Rashid Shaheed and already saw the deal pay off when he returned the first play of Seattle's postseason 95 yards for an opening kickoff TD against the 49ers. Shaheed also ran twice for 27 yards, and that's been his role for Seattle. Less volume like with the Saints, and more of a Percy Harvin gadget role — special teams, deep passes, and a few runs. Shaheed played nine snaps at RB last week, and he played 17 against the Rams. He should see even more such snaps with Charbonnet out. He's logged a rush nine times in 10 games with Seattle, with at least one in both Rams games — one of them for 31 yards. I'm betting Rasheed Shaheed over 0.5 rushing yards (bet365). He's cleared that line in six of 10 Seattle games (60%) and we really just need one run — or even a backward screen pass type play. A receiver has run for positive yardage in 9-of-19 Rams games, and the Seahawks were responsible for three of those — two by Shaheed. And as fast as Shaheed is, we'd be crazy not to take the escalator. He had a 30-yard run just last week and a 31-yarder against the Rams earlier this season. Play 20+ rushing yards at +800 and then 30+ yards at +1500, both at bet365. We may only get one shot at this all game, so let's hope Shaheed make it count.

This is the most fun bet you can make this weekend. Seattle made a big midseason trade for Rashid Shaheed and already saw the deal pay off when he returned the first play of Seattle's postseason 95 yards for an opening kickoff TD against the 49ers. Shaheed also ran twice for 27 yards, and that's been his role for Seattle. Less volume like with the Saints, and more of a Percy Harvin gadget role — special teams, deep passes, and a few runs. Shaheed played nine snaps at RB last week, and he played 17 against the Rams. He should see even more such snaps with Charbonnet out. He's logged a rush nine times in 10 games with Seattle, with at least one in both Rams games — one of them for 31 yards. I'm betting Rasheed Shaheed over 0.5 rushing yards (bet365). He's cleared that line in six of 10 Seattle games (60%) and we really just need one run — or even a backward screen pass type play. A receiver has run for positive yardage in 9-of-19 Rams games, and the Seahawks were responsible for three of those — two by Shaheed. And as fast as Shaheed is, we'd be crazy not to take the escalator. He had a 30-yard run just last week and a 31-yarder against the Rams earlier this season. Play 20+ rushing yards at +800 and then 30+ yards at +1500, both at bet365. We may only get one shot at this all game, so let's hope Shaheed make it count.