The Atlanta Dream (5-2) and Connecticut Sun (1-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
Let's get into my Dream vs. Sun prediction and WNBA picks.
The Dream are favored by -10.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 158 (-114o / -108u). The Dream are a -450 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +340 to pull off the upset.
Dream vs. Sun Odds, Pick
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 158 -114o / -108u | -450 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 158 -114o / -108u | +340 |
- Dream vs. Sun Spread: Dream -10.5 (-110), Sun +10.5 (-110)
- Dream vs. Sun Over/Under: 158 (-114o / -108u)
- Dream vs. Sun Moneyline: Dream -450, Sun +340
- Dream vs. Sun Best Bet: Sun +10.5
Dream vs. Sun Preview
The Sun are off to a rough start this season and are coming off a 48-point loss to the Liberty. Yes, you read that right — 48 points! Connecticut also lost by 24 to the Dream earlier this season in Atlanta. Not much of anything is going right, but they'll have a travel advantage in this spot and should be motivated to prove that they're better than a team that nearly lost by 50.
Meanwhile, the Dream are coming off back-to-back road games in Los Angeles and Seattle. They have won four in a row, but this'll be their third straight road game and the fatigue may start to set in. Atlanta, led by Allisha Gray and her 21.4 points per game, is certainly the better team, but may be a bit worn down and, as a result, could have trouble putting Connecticut away.
I expect Atlanta to win this game, but this is a spot for Connecticut to cover.
Dream vs. Sun Prediction
The "Beware of Travel" WNBA spread system isolates a specific travel fatigue angle and has found that teams that previously played in the Pacific timezone and are now playing in the Eastern timezone often underperform against the spread, especially when the opponent’s prior game was in the Eastern, Central or Mountain timezone.
This creates a body clock mismatch and reduces prep time for the traveling team while the opponent benefits from less disruption. The regular-season schedule amplifies this edge because travel is often compressed and overlooked by bettors who focus on team quality rather than logistical disadvantages. The market tends to misprice these timezone transitions, presenting consistent value on the home side.
Overall, this system has produced a 24% ROI and has a 79-44-5 (64%) lifetime record.
Best Bet: Sun +10.5
