Bears vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 14, 2025

The Commanders have the 10th highest man coverage rate and 7th highest Cover 1 rate… Rome has been elite vs man + cover 1: vs Man — .579 Separation Score (leads NFL) / 4.36 YPRR / 0.45 TPRR vs Cover 1 — 5.28 YPRR / 0.50 TPRR / 53.3% 1st Read% He’s seen 8, 7, 11, and 9 targets in 4 games this season and as a 5.5 road underdog, I’d expect another 8+ targets in this one. We’ve seen some other top perimeter options haul in lots of receptions vs this Commanders secondary: London 8 Rec (10 Targets) Tucker 8 Rec (9Targets) Nabers 5 Rec (12 Targets)

There is a value opportunity on Colston Loveland's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.36 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 2.14. The model believes there is a 61% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +140. (This play is good down to at least -114.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

MNF pick from Action Network podcast

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Longest Rush over 15.5 yds (-125 at DK/MGM) Using even my worst case projections here where I'm looking at over 16.5 yards (instead of 15.5, because most books have 16.5), I get this at worst a super-slight underdog to clear 16.5 (and a coinflip at 15.5) Chicago has allowed a run over 16.5 yards on exactly 10% of RB runs from at least 16 yards away from the end zone, while Croskey-Merritt has garnered a 17+ yard carry twice in 38 rushes from at least 15 yards away from the end zone Notice I'm applying worst case scenarios here, forcing Bill into an extra attempt closer to the goal line than he could even clear 15.5 and pulling in a run from the 16-yard line for Chicago's defense that wouldn't clear 16.5 yards Using a best fit distribution for each and then applying the worse of two scenarios between true rate or best fit rate for each of the Bears D and Croskey-Merrit (penalizing JCM each time), then schedule adjusting these for the Bears playing difficult run offenses and penalizing Croskey-Merritt for playing an easy schedule, I still get that Croskey Merritt would clear this close to 67% of the time at his 15.5 rush attempt line Using a worst case average rush attempt projection for him of 11.75 attempts, that's where I get this would be a coin flip to clear 15.5 That means anything better than these worse case scenarios would be favored to clear 15.5, and I've pretty clearly taken this to be the doomsday scenario. I'd still play this above 16.5 at -112 at FD 15.5 is good to at least -150, 16.5 is good to at least -130

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Fading Luvu is never for the faint of heart. He plays like a heat-seeking missile and is always flying toward the ball. But that aggressive play style comes with volatility. He has rushed the passer 63 times this season, which leads all linebackers. That helps him rack up sacks, but it also pulls him out of the play and lowers his tackle floor. He simply doesn’t get as many tackle opportunities on pass plays because he’s often blitzing rather than being in position for a tackle. He is their 2nd leading tackler against the run and has 10 run stops, but that’s largely due to how often he lines up on the line of scrimmage and meets the RB before the line. Chicago doesn’t run it much, and I am projecting Washington to face about 5.5 fewer rush attempts than usual which dings him specificallf. On top of that, Caleb Williams has been much harder to sack this season. He has only been sacked 7 times in 4 games with a low 14% pressure-to-sack rate. Last year Luvu’s sack equity would have been much higher against the Bears, but Caleb in Ben Johnson’s scheme has been far tougher to take down. I project Luvu closer to 5.9 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 6.5. Yes, Washington’s scorekeeper awards assists at a top-5 rate, but Luvu already benefits from that boost in half his games, so I don’t weigh it as heavily here compared to someone moving from a bad scorekeeper environment to a good one. He has also faced a favorable schedule for linebackers with a +7% expected tackle rate. He has cleared this in 3 of 5 games, but this is a good spot to sell high and take the under.

Farting in the sauna fully occupied

@RoyalsProps tail

Chris Rodriguez didn't practice at all this week, and he has been the biggest threat to Bill on early downs. Bears have let up a lot of explosives to running backs, and the Commanders have supplied plenty themselves, both with Bill and others.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ADRU5buSqXb

Lotto

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb