Bears vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Predictions - October 14, 2025
Bears at Commanders
12:15 am • ABCBears at Commanders Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Bears 4-2 | +4.5 | +5.5-110 | o49-110 | +215 |
![]() Commanders 3-4 | u48.5 | -5.5-110 | u49-110 | -265 |

Northwest StadiumLandover
Bears vs. Commanders Expert Picks

Sir Lockselot
Last 30d: 32-63-0 (-19.6u)
CHI +210
4.2u
📚Player Profit
🔑 Bears ML +210 (Player Profit) 2u
The Bears playing great ball, wanting revenge after the Hail Mary loss last year. This value is too good to pass up
Code: sirlocks for 10% when you get funded at https://www.playerprofit.com/

Chris Raybon
Last 30d: 19-28-0 (-5.3u)
CHI +5.5-105
0.95u

Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 71-90-2 (-11.8u)
C.Loveland o17.5 Rec Yds-120
1u

Allan Lem
Last 30d: 127-102-5 (+6.7u)
CHI +5.5-105
0.5u

The Degenerates
Last 30d: 60-53-0 (+2.8u)
WAS -5.5-108
1.08u

Kyle Murray
Last 30d: 63-66-2 (+2.3u)
R.Odunze o4.5 Recs-118
1.18u
C.Loveland o18.5 Rec Yds-110
1.1u
L.McCaffrey u29.5 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
Action Island play
YBK Picks.com
Last 30d: 65-32-3 (+61.6u)
WAS -5.5-105
2u

Bet Labs
Last 30d: 15-18-0 (-3.4u)
CHI +5.5-112
1u

Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 38-31-1 (+4.1u)
CHI +5.5-110
1u

MJC Locks
Last 30d: 10-24-0 (+2.1u)
R.Odunze o4.5 Recs-112
1.12u
The Commanders have the 10th highest man coverage rate and 7th highest Cover 1 rate…
Rome has been elite vs man + cover 1:
vs Man — .579 Separation Score (leads NFL) / 4.36 YPRR / 0.45 TPRR
vs Cover 1 — 5.28 YPRR / 0.50 TPRR / 53.3% 1st Read%
He’s seen 8, 7, 11, and 9 targets in 4 games this season and as a 5.5 road underdog, I’d expect another 8+ targets in this one.
We’ve seen some other top perimeter options haul in lots of receptions vs this Commanders secondary:
London 8 Rec (10 Targets)
Tucker 8 Rec (9Targets)
Nabers 5 Rec (12 Targets)

Derek Carty
Last 30d: 21-24-0 (+1.8u)
C.Loveland u1.5 Recs+140
1u
There is a value opportunity on Colston Loveland's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.36 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 2.14. The model believes there is a 61% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +140. (This play is good down to at least -114.)
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 97-115-2 (-29.6u)
R.Odunze o66.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
CHI +5.5-110
0.91u

Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 47-80-0 (+2.0u)
CHI +5.5-110
0.68u
MNF pick from Action Network podcast
CHI +220
0.55u
MNF pick from Action Network podcast

Matt DiLeo
Last 30d: 43-31-0 (+5.7u)
O.Zaccheaus o2.5 Recs-130
1u

💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 108-133-7 (-6.6u)
Under 49.5-105
1.5u
Z.Ertz o3.5 Recs-110
1u

Invisible Insider
Last 30d: 12-12-0 (-0.4u)
CHI +5.5-110
0.45u

Roger Goodell
Last 30d: 48-34-2 (+10.6u)
CHI +5.5-110
0.45u

Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 38-63-1 (+2.9u)
J.Croskey-Merritt o15.5 Longest Rush-125
1u
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Longest Rush over 15.5 yds (-125 at DK/MGM)
Using even my worst case projections here where I'm looking at over 16.5 yards (instead of 15.5, because most books have 16.5), I get this at worst a super-slight underdog to clear 16.5 (and a coinflip at 15.5)
Chicago has allowed a run over 16.5 yards on exactly 10% of RB runs from at least 16 yards away from the end zone, while Croskey-Merritt has garnered a 17+ yard carry twice in 38 rushes from at least 15 yards away from the end zone
Notice I'm applying worst case scenarios here, forcing Bill into an extra attempt closer to the goal line than he could even clear 15.5 and pulling in a run from the 16-yard line for Chicago's defense that wouldn't clear 16.5 yards
Using a best fit distribution for each and then applying the worse of two scenarios between true rate or best fit rate for each of the Bears D and Croskey-Merrit (penalizing JCM each time), then schedule adjusting these for the Bears playing difficult run offenses and penalizing Croskey-Merritt for playing an easy schedule, I still get that Croskey Merritt would clear this close to 67% of the time at his 15.5 rush attempt line
Using a worst case average rush attempt projection for him of 11.75 attempts, that's where I get this would be a coin flip to clear 15.5
That means anything better than these worse case scenarios would be favored to clear 15.5, and I've pretty clearly taken this to be the doomsday scenario.
I'd still play this above 16.5 at -112 at FD
15.5 is good to at least -150, 16.5 is good to at least -130

Roger Goodell
Last 30d: 48-34-2 (+10.6u)
C.Williams o24.5 Rush Yds-112
0.5u
J.Croskey-Merritt o82.5 Rush + Rec Yds-114
0.5u

Allan Lem
Last 30d: 127-102-5 (+6.7u)
F.Luvu u6.5 Tackles + Ast-112
0.5u
Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 43-36-0 (+4.8u)
F.Luvu u6.5 Tackles + Ast-112
0.5u
Fading Luvu is never for the faint of heart. He plays like a heat-seeking missile and is always flying toward the ball. But that aggressive play style comes with volatility. He has rushed the passer 63 times this season, which leads all linebackers. That helps him rack up sacks, but it also pulls him out of the play and lowers his tackle floor. He simply doesn’t get as many tackle opportunities on pass plays because he’s often blitzing rather than being in position for a tackle.
He is their 2nd leading tackler against the run and has 10 run stops, but that’s largely due to how often he lines up on the line of scrimmage and meets the RB before the line. Chicago doesn’t run it much, and I am projecting Washington to face about 5.5 fewer rush attempts than usual which dings him specificallf. On top of that, Caleb Williams has been much harder to sack this season. He has only been sacked 7 times in 4 games with a low 14% pressure-to-sack rate. Last year Luvu’s sack equity would have been much higher against the Bears, but Caleb in Ben Johnson’s scheme has been far tougher to take down.
I project Luvu closer to 5.9 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 6.5. Yes, Washington’s scorekeeper awards assists at a top-5 rate, but Luvu already benefits from that boost in half his games, so I don’t weigh it as heavily here compared to someone moving from a bad scorekeeper environment to a good one. He has also faced a favorable schedule for linebackers with a +7% expected tackle rate.
He has cleared this in 3 of 5 games, but this is a good spot to sell high and take the under.
T.Edmunds o7.5 Tackles + Ast-108
0.5u
Edmunds has one of the highest floors in this market. He has recorded 7+ tackles in all four games this season and leads the Bears in tackles against both the run and the pass. This matchup sets up well for him with Jayden Daniels back and Terry McLaurin out. Washington should take fewer deep shots, which means more tackle opportunities in the second level.. right in Edmunds’ wheelhouse.
Another bonus is the venue. Washington’s scorekeepers have awarded assists at a top-5 rate, while Chicago ranks 7th lowest. The near tackle Tykee Smith had at the end of the Tampa game (if you were sweating that with me, you know what I’m talking about) probably would have been an assist in this building.
We’re now 6 games into the season, which is when I start incorporating more scorekeeper weighting into my projections. Edmunds gets a boost because of it. I project him closer to 8.5 with roughly a 60% chance to clear 7.5.

Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 79-100-1 (-14.3u)
J.Daniels o15.5 Longest Rush-112
0.89u
Farting in the sauna fully occupied
J.Daniels o8.5 Rush Att-110
0.91u
Same line for my own attempts on my life
J.Daniels Anytime TD Scorer Yes+140
1u
Scamper in
J.Daniels First Touchdown Scorer Yes+800
0.25u
Purely for the vibes
J.Daniels o43.5 Rush Yds-114
0.88u
Mike Vick minus the animal abuse

Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 96-101-2 (-0.8u)
L.Burden o18.5 Rec Yds-112
1u
@RoyalsProps tail
R.Odunze o66.5 Rec Yds-108
1.62u
@wwiseguys tail

Grant Neiffer
Last 30d: 32-76-0 (+5.6u)
R.Odunze Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
0.5u

Jim Sannes
Last 30d: 16-53-0 (-21.0u)
J.Croskey-Merritt o69.5 Rush Yds-114
1u
Chris Rodriguez didn't practice at all this week, and he has been the biggest threat to Bill on early downs. Bears have let up a lot of explosives to running backs, and the Commanders have supplied plenty themselves, both with Bill and others.
J.Daniels u221.5 Pass Yds-114
0.88u
Wind and potential rain in the forecast, and the Commanders are down both Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown. Think they'll be able to run the ball effectively, too, so don't mind taking an under even though I expect Daniels to be efficient.

Royals Props
Last 30d: 28-20-0 (+4.0u)
L.Burden o18.5 Rec Yds-111
0.45u

Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 59-109-0 (-4.3u)
CHI +5.5-110
0.91u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ADRU5buSqXb
CHI +205
1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/ADRU5buSqXb

Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 168-153-2 (+14.9u)
D.Moore o69.5 Rec Yds+390
0.5u
Lotto
Z.Ertz o3.5 Recs+105
1.05u
D.Moore o38.5 Rec Yds-115
0.87u
POD

Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 71-90-2 (-11.8u)
Z.Ertz o27.5 Rec Yds-120
0.83u

FTN Fantasy
Last 30d: 46-40-1 (+7.9u)
WAS -5.5-110
1u

Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 64-69-1 (+4.1u)
WAS -4.5-105
0.63u

Royals Props
Last 30d: 28-20-0 (+4.0u)
CHI +220
1.1u
CHI +5.5-110
1u
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 26-77-1 (-11.5u)
J.Daniels Anytime TD Scorer Yes+165
1u

Chris Gimino
Last 30d: 27-41-1 (-11.2u)
J.Daniels o42.5 Rush Yds-112
0.89u

Markus Markets
Last 30d: 42-28-0 (+15.3u)
J.Croskey-Merritt o15.5 Longest Rush-108
1u
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 26-77-1 (-11.5u)
R.Odunze Anytime TD Scorer Yes+175
1u

The Propfessor
Last 30d: 31-54-0 (-0.2u)
J.Croskey-Merritt o63.5 Rush Yds-110
1u

TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 15-54-1 (-5.8u)
J.Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD Scorer Yes+100
0.5u
@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb
R.Odunze Anytime TD Scorer Yes+175
0.5u
@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb
O.Zaccheaus Anytime TD Scorer Yes+425
0.5u
@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb
L.Burden Anytime TD Scorer Yes+600
0.5u
@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb

💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 108-133-7 (-6.6u)
WAS -4.5-108
1.08u

Matt Moore
Last 30d: 25-29-0 (-0.6u)
WAS -4.5-108
1.1u
Bears vs. Commanders Previews & Analysis
Bears vs. Commanders Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Bears vs. Commanders Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Commanders are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Commanders are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Commanders are 1-3 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Commanders' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Commanders' 3 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 3-4 | 2-1 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
![]() | 4-2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 3-3-1 | 1-1-1 | 2-2 | 1-1-1 | 2-2 |
![]() | 3-2-1 | 1-2 | 2-0-1 | 1-1 | 2-1-1 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 3-4 | N/A | N/A | 2-1 | 1-3 |
![]() | 4-2 | N/A | N/A | 1-1 | 3-1 |
Last 5 Matchups
Commanders vs. Bears Injury Updates

Commanders Injuries
- Noah BrownWR
Brown is out with groin
Out
- Austin EkelerRB
Ekeler is out with achilles
Out
- Terry McLaurinWR
McLaurin is out with quad
Out
- Deebo SamuelWR
Samuel is questionable with heel
Questionable
- Jayden DanielsQB
Daniels is out with hamstring
Out

Bears Injuries
- Jaylon JohnsonDB
Johnson is questionable with calf
Questionable
Team Stats
Bears vs. Commanders Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Bears at Commanders Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
![]() Bears 4-2 | o21.5-112 | u21.5-110 |
![]() Commanders 3-4 | o27.5-102 | u27.5-121 |