Browns vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - December 14, 2025

Dog fight

Tailing @nick_giffen

Luck Rankings

Windy unders, neither team made postseason Overall: 316-203-4,61% (ROI:18%) Season:5-5-0,50% (ROI:-3%)

6 pack although Browns injuries are not ideal

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Caleb has cleared this in 10 of 13 games so it seems way too low on the surface, but this is a spot where multiple factors lead me to the under. First, this is a game I’m expecting the Bears to run a bit more as 7.5-point favorites, even though it’s a tougher matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 2nd in DVOA against the run. When Caleb does drop back, it’s also a tougher matchup through the air since Cleveland ranks 7th in DVOA against the pass. One of their strengths is generating pressure at the 5th highest rate, which not only increases the chances Caleb scrambles (he’s scrambled on 19% of pressured dropbacks) but also kills his efficiency when he does throw. He’s at just 4.13 Y/A when pressured, which ranks 43rd out of 44 qualified QBs. Another recent trend is Caleb throwing downfield much less, with his average air yards dropping. That may help his completion rate a bit but lowers his upside in this market. Plus, it’s supposed to be freezing temps for the game, and for someone who is already erratic as a thrower, that could make things even tougher for his receivers to haul in passes. So this sets up as a run-heavy game plan where Caleb could use his legs more, which lowers his passing upside. They should also be able to play with a lead at a higher rate and keep a more conservative approach without pushing downfield as much. I’m projecting him closer to 179.5 pass yds with around a 58% chance to stay under, and feel like a lot of underlying factors will keep him limited in this market this week.

This is the exact sort of game the Bears have typically lost in the last couple decades, right as the team is finally looking good and sizable favorites against a Browns team that has no business beating them. Is this Chicago squad really different under Ben Johnson? I say yes. It looks like a cold, blustery Chicago game with winds and subzero wind chills. That should mean an emphasis on the run game, which both teams prefer anyway, and that may mean advantage Chicago with what Ben Johnson has done for this rushing attack, especially with Maliek Collins a key loss on Cleveland's line. Cleveland's defense has been below average in limiting explosives, and Chicago has been one of the league's most explosive defenses, so the Bears may find some big plays. They should also benefit from Caleb Williams' outstanding growth against pressure and blitz this season, since Myles Garrett and company are so good pressuring the QB. A Browns game inevitably means a low total — it's 38.5 right now — and that's artificially suppressing the Bears' team total at 23.5 I do think Chicago could start slow. That's been the case often this season, and the Browns defense has been better in the first half, but Johnson has made excellent halftime adjustments and almost always seems to find answers. This team total could function as a proxy for a Bears win; Chicago has scored at least 24 points in eight of its nine wins this season. Since the start of the 2023 season, Cleveland's defense simply hasn't been the same on the road, allowing opponents to go 21-4 to their team total over (84%), by almost a full touchdown a game, per Clevta. Take the Bears to go over 23.5 and find enough points at home.

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