Giants vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - November 9, 2025

Luck Rankings A Grade

Tailing @RoyalsProps

Sorry Royal

ML sprinkle

1.62% ev play to -156

I was all set to back the Bears when I saw this line at Chicago -3 on Sunday morning, but it reopened above the key number and has continued to steadily rise all week. Chicago has a pair of two-point wins and that last-second Bengals win, and the Giants have two losses by three or less, so that makes it tough to pay such a steep price to back the Bears. The Giants have allowed 22 PPG in their last three second halves and are 2-7 ATS in the 2H, and Bears -1.5 2H gets under the key number. But the reason I was looking to back Chicago in the first place was one key matchup, so let's just go straight to the source and play a bunch of rushing overs. Last week, I really wanted D'Andre Swift overs. I even had the whole thing written up and gave out Swift overs on The Action Network podcast, but we had to kill the pick when Swift was a late injury scratch. In his place, rookie replacement Kyle Monangai ran rampant with 176 yards on 26 carries. Somehow, this matchup might be even tastier. The Giants rank dead last in rushing defense both by DVOA and EPA per play. This also looks like a blustery Chicago game, with heavy winds and a chance of freezing rain or snow — more reason to look at the ground game. Since the bye week, Chicago's rushing attack has been absolutely unstoppable. The Bears are up from 3.8 yards per carry in four games before the bye to 5.9 YPC after, leading the league at 187 yards per game. Chicago ranks fourth in rushing Success Rate since the bye and second in EPA per run. It's clear Ben Johnson found some answers in the week away, and this offensive line is playing well. This is also a great matchup under the hood. Chicago prefers to play under center and run outside, each among the Giants' worst defensive metrics. New York allows the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Giants have already allowed seven backs to rush for at least 81 yards. If you look at just "Bears RB1" in wins since the bye, you see rushing lines of 14/108, 19/124, and 26/176. The question is which Bears runner is RB1. Is it Swift now that he's back on the field, or has rookie Monangai stolen the job? Even worse, could it be a split? Which one should we play? How about both? I still think Swift gets more of the carries for now. He's more of a workhorse type, the Knuckles to Monangai's Sonic in this pairing. Take Swift over 50.5 rushing yards (-115, Fanatics). He's gone over that in four of seven games, and he's averaging 16.5 carries for 116 yards in Bears wins since the bye week change. That means we're placing a real chunk of the bet on 100+ yards at +900 too, and it makes sense to tack on 100+ Swift yards in a Bears cover at +1200 (both at bet365). With Monangai, I'm less looking to play his standard lines and more looking for alts. Maybe he did take the lead job, in which case we want high outcomes, or maybe he gets clean-up duty or busts a long one against a tired, bad run defense. Play Monangai to hit 50+ rushing yards at +180 (bet365). That can hit even with Swift doing well, and it also offers some insurance in case we're wrong and Swift doesn't get the carries, meaning Monangai probably does. Play 100+ yards at +1500 too, in case the volume is there. It's hard to know which back to trust, but what's interesting is that books don't seem to know either. Some are pricing Swift higher; others are boosting Monangai's lines. That means shopping around buys us value. There's also a good opportunity here to build some fun combination parlays. If you bet both Swift and Monangai yards together, books will likely price in negative correlation, assuming one runner hitting means the other doesn't. I'm not sure that's the case, though, not in this matchup. I like Swift 80+ yards and Monangai 50+ yards as a +1150 SGP together (bet365), and are you ready for a bomb? How about Swift 100+ rushing yards and Monangai 70+ in a Bears win? That's +6500 at bet365, but that just hit in Chicago's last win with both backs on the field against the Saints!

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/fo0oUthH6Xb

@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/EvaZ2p3F6Xb

Px

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Caleb has cleared 280+ passing yards in back-to-back games, so I think his market is a bit inflated here because of it. This is a matchup against the Giants, who are more of a run funnel, where I expect Chicago to lean on the run more.. especially with Kyle Monangai looking great last week in his first start. I’m simply expecting his volume to be down in this spot. This was a prop I had circled to dig into during my Fri/Sat projection sweep, but with the weather forecast looking ugly and both Odunze and Moore banged up and limited in practice, I wanted to lock it in early at this number. I’m projecting him closer to 220 yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 232.5. A lot can change before kickoff, but most of that uncertainty points toward this line dropping once I run my full process later in the week.

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/25SlQ7HP4Xb

@ChrisRaybon 3 https://myaction.app/PhqO8ouP4Xb

#SundaySixPack

1 more early 2U💎. Bears might be the Commanders of last year and this # is just too high