NFL Best Bets Today | Week 8 Picks
Spreads. Over/unders. Props. Let's get to the NFL best bets today — Week 8 expert picks for Sunday.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Week 8 Picks Against Spread, Over/Unders
Another fine NFL Sunday deserves the very best NFL bets today — so here's the only NFL preview you need for Week 8.
Ravens vs. Cardinals
It's always a danger to buy a team right after they just had their best game of the season and completely dismantled another team. The Ravens won't play a better game all season than the one they did against Detroit on Sunday at home. Baltimore began the game with four consecutive touchdown drives and Detroit countered with three consecutive three-and-outs.
The building blocks of this potential outburst had been building for weeks. The defense completely stifled Pittsburgh and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks. The offense struggled to put points on the board in both games because of dropped passes, inopportune turnovers and red zone inefficiency, but the play-to-play numbers took a real step forward under the hood.
It was remarkable just how open the Ravens receivers were down the field in the game. PFF graded the Lions as a league-average coverage unit this year and they had no chance of keeping up with Baltimore's offensive weapons. The Cardinals' defense may actually be worse than the Broncos' at this point, and Jonathan Gannon's defensive scheme has consistently struggled against top-tier pocket passers.
The Cardinals are 32nd in pass coverage per PFF, 30th in dropback success rate, 29th in rushing success rate allowed. Seattle only managed 20 points against them because of some inopportune turnovers, but it's hard to see the Cardinals keeping Baltimore under 25 points in this game.
You can't really run on Baltimore, and the clock may have finally struck midnight on Joshua Dobbs' Cinderella run here. The Cardinals rank dead last in EPA per play and dropback success rate in the last three weeks. The Ravens should win this game going away as the market keeps adjusting to the fact they are the second-best team in the AFC.
Ravens vs. Cardinals
Todd Monken's offense hit its stride last week against Detroit, and it feels like the Ravens offense can pretty much name its score against the 31st-ranked DVOA defense. Baltimore's offense has been far better in the first half, where it ranks 3rd instead of 20th in the second half, which makes sense since that includes those early scripted plays the reformed offense practiced all week.
Ravens bettors know Lamar Jackson is a first-half king. He's 42-24-2 ATS (64%) in the first half in his career, including 5-2 this season. Just look at the halftime scores of the last four Ravens games: 21-3, 10-3, 18-3, and 28-0. Three field goals allowed and an average lead of 17 points!
This team is not messing around. With an inflated full-game line at -9.5, play just the first half to get below -7 and grab an early win.
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Bengals vs. 49ers
Nothing on paper so far this season says to bet the Bengals. Cincinnati's offense ranks bottom 10 by DVOA both rushing and passing. The run defense has been miserable, a problem against such a creative rushing attack, and the defense has been bad over the middle where San Francisco is so good. Cincinnati's offensive line metrics have been awful, and the defense has struggled on the road. On paper, this is a mismatch.
But paper doesn't know Joe Burrow as we do.
Including the playoffs, Burrow is 14-2 (88%) against the spread (ATS) lifetime as an underdog of three or more points. Both of those failed covers came during his rookie season too, so he's a perfect 9-0 ATS in that spot since then. And he's not just covering. Burrow is 7-2 straight-up (SU) in those games.
A $100 bettor that blindly bet Burrow as an underdog of three or more anytime since his rookie season would be up $1,078, an absurd 120% ROI. Burrow hasn't lost by more than a field goal as an underdog in any game since his rookie season, including the playoffs.
But you already know all that. This is Joe Cool. This is what he does. This team lives for these underdog moments. Who Dey!
Pick: Bengals +5.5 (-108) & ML (+200)
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Chiefs vs. Broncos
Mahomes has been throwing the ball at a very high rate this season, and it really doesn't matter if they're trailing or up in any game.
So far this season, Mahomes hasn't had fewer than 30 passing attempts in any game, and he's hit the over in five out of seven games, with 39+ in each of those games. One of the games where Mahomes didn't hit the over was against the Bears, in which he had 33 and was taken out before the fourth quarter even started. The other was against the Jets in what was just a weird game.
Additionally, Mahomes just played Denver two weeks ago and had 40 attempts in a spot where they were leading heavily pretty much the entire game.
I would hit this line all the way up to 36.5.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
Chiefs vs. Broncos
By Sam Farley
There are only two defenses in the NFL that have given up more passing yards than the Broncos. Now, they head into Week Eight facing the best quarterback in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes.
While Travis Kelce is the obvious touchdown choice I have to back rookie Rashee Rice.
It's been clear in recent weeks that Rice is developing real chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, and two of his three touchdowns have come in the past three weeks. His role seems to be expanding each week with the Chiefs, and I expect him to be able to profit against a poor Broncos' defense.
At +220 you're getting a big price on him scoring a touchdown since his usage is only increasing.
Pick: Rashee Rice ATD (+220)
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Packers vs. Vikings
Minnesota just had its banner win for the entire season in primetime in front of the entire country. The Vikings' DVOA numbers for the current 3-4 team are better than the 2022 Vikings, who began the season with a 6-1 record. Compare this situation to the Packers, who have lost three in a row (two to the Broncos and Raiders) and now are beginning the search for the next QB as Jordan Love continues to falter with his accuracy and decision-making.
Everyone bought back in on their Vikings stock after selling it after an 0-4 start. The Packers began the year 2-1, then lost three straight and no one wants any part of the Packers here as a home underdog (basically a pick'em).
No one is as good or as bad as last week suggests, and the Vikings cannot exploit the Packers' biggest weakness in this game. Green Bay's run defense and scheme remain problems under defensive coordinator Joe Barry, but the Vikings' entire offense is centered around Kirk Cousins and the passing attack.
Minnesota is decent on a play-to-play basis on the ground, but there's zero explosiveness at all from the unit. The Packers' injury situation needs to be monitored here, especially in the back seven of the defense. Jaire Alexander missed last week through injury, but I'd expect him to be in for this desperation home divisional game.
This is a classic buy-low and sell-high spot. It's time to grab Green Bay at home to save its season. Use our live NFL odds page to get +1, which is still available at most sportsbooks.
Pick: Packers +1.5 (-112)
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Texans vs. Panthers
I don't really understand this line at all. While Young may be a good QB at some point in his career, he's not there yet and doesn't have much of a receiving corps to help him out, aside from Adam Thielen.
Young has only hit the over at this number just once time through five games and hasn't been close in the other ones, averaging just 193 yards per game. The matchup against Houston is an average one if you look at season-long numbers, but they've been a better team on the defensive team over the last few weeks.
With a close spread, I don't see the Panthers throwing often later in the game, and I expect them to lean more on the ground game. I would hit this under all the way down to 220.5.
Pick: Bryce Young Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Texans vs. Panthers
The Panthers have yet to cover a game against the spread. They had a Week 2 push on a backdoor touchdown at home against the Saints and have since lost four in a row both straight-up and against the spread. The Panthers will have a new offensive play-caller with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown taking over for Frank Reich after their bye.
The Panthers will get right guard Austin Corbett back, and if there was ever a time to believe in this version of Carolina, off the bye is the time to do it. I've backed the Texans multiple times in this column, but the idea that they'd ever be laying three this season on the road is pretty wild to think about.
One major key for the Panthers is the pass rush: They rank 10th in pass rush win rate as a unit. The run defense has been so bad that they've fallen behind early and not had a chance to play their way back into games. They can get pressure on C.J. Stroud, who had major struggles with it at Ohio State.
Ultimately, you're making the case to buy low on Carolina, which hasn't covered all year. No one wants to bet this team, especially after they were +14 and leading the Dolphins 14-0 two weeks ago but still failed to cover in a 42-21 loss.
The Panthers have had a historically bad run defense, but they now get to face a 29th-ranked rush offense by success rate in Houston. Carolina actually has a higher offensive success rate than Houston, especially on early downs. The Texans will struggle to run the ball on early downs and that will open up the Panthers to get pressure on Stroud.
The Panthers haven't been good, but they have played four of their six games on the road against a considerably tougher schedule than Houston has played. Even though Houston is getting healthier along the offensive line, I'd buy Carolina at +3 or better at its floor.
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Texans vs. Panthers
Coming into the season, a lot was made about C.J. Stroud not having good weapons, but Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell have put those concerns swiftly to bed.
Collins is averaging 91 yards a game, and he leads the NFL with 18.9 yards per catch. Carolina is missing its best cornerback and has been bad against WR1s.
See where I'm going with this?
Collins has been a weekly deep threat for the Texans, and he has a catch of at least 25 yards every game this season, which means he's hit this over 100% of the time. You can also play Collins to hit 75 yards at +205 at bet365, something he's done in four of six games already.
Pick: Nico Collins Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards
Jets vs. Giants
The Giants posted back-to-back quality performances against two overvalued defenses with major holes for Tyrod Taylor to pick apart with his poised pocket play. Neither the Commanders nor Bills were able to truly rattle Taylor into mistakes, but the same will not be true this Sunday for a neutral field contest between the Jets and Giants.
As much as it feels terrible to lay points with Zach Wilson, this line should be over a field goal given the significant mismatch for the Jets in the trenches here. The Jets are a top-five coverage unit, per PFF, and a top-half unit in pass rush win rate. It's really difficult to run the ball on this defensive front, and the Jets had the extra prep and rest to get their secondary healthy through the bye week.
The Jets have played the toughest schedule of QBs in the entire NFL — Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Despite this tough schedule, the Jets are 10th in success rate and 12th in EPA per play allowed.
Daniel Jones still hasn't been cleared for contact, so I don't expect him to be back for this game. The major plus for the Giants offense has been Taylor's sack avoidance, but this offensive line is still giving up pressures at an alarming rate compared to before Jones' injury.
I'd lay up to -3 on the Jets to move to above .500 on Sunday.
Jets vs. Giants
This game is going to be ugly in nearly every possible way, and the weather is going to be another factor in this spot. There’s a decent chance of rain here, and there is likely going to be some wind.
This is a spot where the Jets are likely going to be winning against a bad Giants team, and the game script won't favor Wilson throwing the ball. He’s been awful all season outside of one solid game against the Chiefs and has hit the under at this number in four out of six games.
I have this at a 60% hit rate here, making this a solid under. I'd hit it all the way down to 185.5.
Pick: Zach Wilson Under 196.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Jets vs. Giants
By Sam Farley
Darren Waller scored his first touchdown of the season last week against the Commanders. Many expected him to have a huge season after being traded to the Giants and while he has caught a lot of passes, it hasn't really translated into touchdowns yet.
This Sunday, we should see that change.
Waller comes into this having seen 26 targets and registered 227 receiving yards in the past three weeks compared to just 23 targets and 153 yards in the four weeks before that.
Waller’s role in the offense looks to be expanding, and he now faces a Jets defense that has allowed a league-high five touchdowns to TEs in just six games. The opportunity is here for Waller on Sunday, which makes that +370 price look very attractive.
Pick: Darren Waller ATD (+330)
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Jaguars vs. Steelers
Jacksonville is getting healthier along the offensive line, and it's no surprise that it has coincided with a recent winning streak.
There's some air in the numbers based on good bounces — Foster Moreau's end zone drop probably swung the game last Thursday in New Orleans. The Jaguars have won four straight games despite getting relatively inconsistent play from the offense as a whole. They were under four yards per play against the Colts, couldn't move the ball much on the injured Bills until midway through the fourth quarter, and they've at times ignored top receiver Calvin Ridley.
Despite this, there are a few keys I really like for Jacksonville in this spot. The Steelers cannot run the ball at all, and they're going to be entirely one-dimensional in this game. The Jaguars' defensive scheme forces teams away from the run game. The Jaguars rank second in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed and Pittsburgh is 25th in EPA per rush and rushing success rate. As a result, the ball will often be in Kenny Pickett's hands. As a Jacksonville backer, I'd like to see the Jaguars' improving secondary challenge Pickett to beat them.
The Jaguars impressively slowed down Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, holding them to 20 and 17 points, respectively. Based on Pro Football Focus (PFF) metrics, the Jaguars are the No. 1-ranked coverage unit in the NFL. I'm not totally convinced of that, but the defense should still have success stopping a Steelers offense that is 31st in success rate.
Doug Pederson also isn't going to overdo running the ball. He has the most extreme pass-heavy approach on second-and-10 in the league, and that's where this Steelers defense is vulnerable. Pittsburgh's run defense remains good, but there are exploitable holes in the secondary. The Steelers are 16th in passing success rate allowed and there's a huge gulf in quarterback play.
I wouldn't lay three in Pittsburgh, but anything under that is a bet for me.
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Falcons vs. Titans
When the total is this low and points are so hard to come by, three points is a lot — especially for a home underdog like Mike Vrabel. Vrabel is 61% ATS as a home underdog, and he's 68% ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. When he's a home dog of three or more points, he's a ridiculous 8-4 SU, with bettors seeing an awesome 83% ROI on the moneyline.
The Titans will play hard no matter what moves the team makes, and Tennessee had the bye week to get Levis ready and prep for a matchup against its old offensive coordinator, so advantage Vrabel. He's 5-0 ATS coming out of the bye, and Tennessee has been far better at home (8th in Defensive DVOA and 15th on offense) than on the road (25th and 30th).
I can't believe I'm backing Will Levis, a debut rookie QB I have zero belief in, but sometimes betting is gross. I'm not sure Ridder on the road is much better than Levis, and I trust Vrabel and the points in this Spider-Man meme matchup.
Underdogs of four or fewer points in games with totals under 42 have covered 64% of the time since 2018, including 70% this year. They're 10-2 ATS (83%) with a total under 37 like this one. Be sure to get the key number +3 if you can, but take +2.5 if you must, or pivot to Titans moneyline instead. I'd play +3 at -115 or -120 if necessary, though.
Pick: Titans +3 (-115)
Falcons vs. Titans
When you first look at this total, you’re probably thinking, “How do two teams in the NFL not combine for more than 36 points?” That was my first takeaway when seeing the total set at 35.5 points. But then I did a little digging.
The Falcons are yet to score more than 25 points in a game this season and have been held under 10 points in two of their last four games. They’re a run-first, run-second, run-third type of team that’s facing a Titans defense that is top five in both DVOA against the run and rush EPA this season. It could be a struggle for Atlanta to move the ball.
The Titans have also had their struggles offensively and will be without Ryan Tannehill this week. Rookie Will Levis is expected to start and while they would love to lean on Derrick Henry and the running game, the Falcons are fourth in DVOA against the run this season.
We have two bad offenses that want to run the ball and two defenses that excel at stopping the run. This should be played at a snail's pace and screams 13-10 in either direction.
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Even with Tyreek Hill likely to play, this sets up as a Jaylen Waddle game.
New England's pass defense has been great at two specific things: limiting deep balls and shutting down opposing WR1s. The Patriots rank first by DVOA against opposing WR1s, and they held Hill to five catches for 40 yards last month.
Of course, the problem for Dolphins opponents is that Miami has two stud WRs with blazing speed. Waddle's numbers are a bit suppressed so far by blowout scripts, but he had 86 yards against the Patriots in September and is averaging 60 yards a game.
Waddle is +175 for 75 yards and +475 for 100 at bet365, and those look like nice escalators since he can always break off a long one.
