NFL Week 3 Preview, Odds, Picks: How to Bet Every Game and Every Team

Week 3 in the NFL is Kitchen Sink Week — and that's the first thing you need to know as we get closer to kick off for NFL Week 3 on Sunday, and as we break down our NFL Week 3 preview — the odds, picks and bets for every game and every team. Yes, every single one of them.

Maybe you're a fan of one of those teams and looking to get $10 down and have some fun, or perhaps you just want to get a little action on a game you don't have a good feel for but know you'll be watching. Maybe you know exactly who you like in a game, just not the smart way to bet it.

Regardless of your level of betting experience and comfort, we're here for you. The point of this NFL Week 3 preview is to share the odds for every game, plus my best way to bet on every team. Now, they're not all my best bets. For those, I've made a few picks at the bottom of each game betting preview, and you can find my full betting card at the bottom of this story.

But for those looking to place a few bets for fun, either on your favorite team, against your most hated rival or on a primetime game you'll be watching and want to rent a rooting interest for, this NFL Week 3 preview is for you.

Nine teams around the league are already 0-2, staring down the barrel of a lost season and desperate to find that first win to save their season. We'll get into what that means for bettors and why it creates prime betting opportunity in Week 3 in just a minute.

With the 1 p.m. games kicked off, let's get to the remainder of our NFL Week 3 preview, odds and picks, and how to bet every game and every team.

Looking to place your NFL Week 3 bets? Get the latest updated NFL odds across sportsbooks here, as shopping around to find the best line is essential for every NFL bettor, beginner or expert!

NFL Week 3 Preview, Odds, Picks: How to Bet Every Game and Every Team

Game Preview, Odds	Road Pick	Home Pick
Broncos vs Dolphins
Texans vs Jaguars
Chargers vs Vikings
Colts vs Ravens
Patriots vs Jets
Bills vs Commanders
Falcons vs Lions
Saints vs Packers
Titans vs Browns
Panthers vs Seahawks
Bears vs Chiefs
Cowboys vs Cardinals
Steelers vs Raiders
Eagles vs Buccaneers
Rams vs Bengals

Week 3 in the NFL is Kitchen Sink Week for those nine 0-2 teams.

We know that only one of the last 99 teams to fall to 0-3 rebounded to make the playoffs. This is it for these teams. This is the season on the line. Time to pull out all the stops, run that trick play you've been saving up, and try everything but the kitchen sink to stop from falling to 0-3.

There are a barrage of trends backing 0-2 Kitchen Sink teams in Week 3. We'll be referring to them often, so let's lay out some of the most important up front:

• Kitchen Sink teams (0-2 W-L record) since 2010 vs. anyone not 0-2: 50-29-1 against the spread (63% ATS)
• Kitchen Sink teams as road underdogs since 2018: 7-11 straight up (37% ROI)
• Week 3 underdogs that are 0-2 ATS so far: 67-46-1 ATS (59%)
• Week 3 road underdogs that are 0-2 ATS: 48-29-1 ATS (62%) and 31-47 SU (30% ROI)
• 0-2 ATS teams that lost by seven or less in Week 2: 32-18 ATS (64%)

Any trend that consistently hits at 57% or higher should have our attention, and 60% or better is excellent. We need to take these 0-2 Kitchen Sink teams seriously with their season on the line.

Sunday Late Afternoon Betting Preview

Panthers vs Seahawks Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

4:05pm ET

CBS

Panthers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+5 -110	42 -108o / -112u	+194

Seahawks Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-5 -110	42 -108o / -112u	-235

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Panthers are another one of those Kitchen Sink teams at 0-2 both SU and ATS. Since they also lost by three on Monday night, Carolina fits every one of those Kitchen Sink trends at the top.
• No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young is not expected to play. That would leave veteran Andy Dalton making the start in relief. As an underdog of a TD or less, Dalton is 42-26-2 ATS lifetime (62%).

The Kitchen Sink trends all back the Panthers, and this is a great matchup spot, too. The Panthers defense has been good, and the pass defense looks elite at No. 5 in DVOA. Brian Burns is back and wreaking havoc, and he and the pass rush could make life miserable for the Seahawks, who are still missing both tackles (along with three of the top five in the secondary).

Geno Smith has struggled his entire career under pressure. Seattle was only 2-6 SU against defenses that finished in the top half of the league by DVOA last season, losing by almost a TD a game, and that as a playoff team. The Panthers physically manhandled the Seahawks in December, running 46 times for 223 yards and forcing Smith into three sacks and two interceptions. Carolina can hang and even win this.

If the Seahawks can keep Carolina's pass rush at bay and the Panthers offense still can't get going, that could set up for a nice, easy win.

We haven't seen much from Seattle's rookie RB yet, with just seven carries and around a quarter of the snaps played each game, but this is the guy you want running the ball to pound a tired defense and run out the clock protecting a lead. Charbonnet had 27 rushing TDs his last two seasons at UCLA. Can we get the rookie his first score as a pro? If you really want to get frisky, he's +1800 to score the game's last TD.

Seattle should not be favored by this much, especially with its long list of injuries. This is an excellent chance for the Panthers to get on the board with their first win of the season. Sprinkle the ML too at +235.

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Bears vs Chiefs Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

4:25pm ET

FOX

Bears Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+12.5 -110	48.5 -105o / -115u	+570

Chiefs Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-12.5 -110	48.5 -105o / -115u	-820

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Bears are another Kitchen Sink team at 0-2 both SU and ATS so they fit all the trends.
• It's been quite a tumultuous week in Chicago. Alan Williams resigned as defensive coordinator, Justin Fields criticized the coaching, the Bears' HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!!

Fields had at least 53 rushing yards in nine of 10 games to end last season. I know that. You know that. Why don't Chicago's coaches seem to know that?

Whenever an athlete whines about getting enough shots or catches, they magically seem to get fat and happy immediately the following game. If Justin says he wants to run, I say we let him run.

The Bears literally don't have a defensive coordinator, and it's not like they had a defense anyway. This matchup practically screams get-right spot for Pat Mahomes and this struggling offense. The Chiefs scored at least 30 in 16 of their 26 wins (62%) the last two seasons.

Chicago is too messy to even elicit a pity Kitchen Sink bet from me. Throw out the kitchen sink, and toss the coaching staff and QB too as far as I'm concerned.

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Cowboys vs Cardinals Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

4:25pm ET

FOX

Cowboys Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-13 -110	43 -110o / -110u	-750

Cardinals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+13 -110	43 -110o / -110u	+525

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Cardinals count as a Kitchen Sink team at 0-2, but Arizona is 2-0 ATS and has actually led both games in the fourth quarter.
• The Cowboys, however, are not the Commanders or the Giants.

From the guys that brought you Cowboys-Giants and Cowboys-Jets, meet Cowboys-Cardinals! I promise, Dallas will have to play a Division I team at some point.

There's little reason to think this is anything other than similar to those games: Blowout City with Micah Parsons and the gang rolling up on a bad line and an offense lacking talent. Still, Arizona has scored better than expected, and there's at least a tiny chance Joshua Dobbs is the best QB Dallas has faced, right?

Let's see the defense adjust without Trevon Diggs and bet on the offense for once. This is a spot where the total can only go so low and the spread can only go so high, so we're left with a team total that's lower than it ought to be. The Cowboys have scored 40 and 30, and Arizona is the worst defense in the league and just gave up 31 to Daniel Jones in a single half.

The Cardinals are competing and should be 2-0 or at least 1-1. I'm not sure you really get the Kitchen Sink bump when your franchise would clearly prefer to go 0-17, but home underdogs of 10-to-14 points are 64-43 ATS over the past two decades (60%), including 5-1 in September.

The numbers say this is the right side, and it's the way to bet the Cards if you want action. Just know that it could be 21-0 after 10 minutes, too.

Weird things seem to happen to the Cowboys in Arizona. I don't need the action.

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

Steelers vs Raiders Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

8:20pm ET

NBC

Steelers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2.5 +100	43 -110o / -110u	+126

Raiders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-2.5 -120	43 -110o / -110u	-150

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Steelers won Monday, no thanks to the offense, as the defense scored two TDs. The offense isn't just last in the league through two weeks — it's so far off the charts on many metrics that it's literally throwing off the scale for everyone else.
•  Pittsburgh is still without Diontae Johnson and Cam Heyward for at least the next few weeks. Heyward is an especially big loss, as the run defense is significantly worse without him. Luckily, it looks like Minkah Fitzpatrick is good to go.

How many times are they gonna make Mike Tomlin a field goal underdog before they learn? Two decades later, we're still doing this. This isn't a prime Tomlin underdog spot, but you still gotta feel good about a team that will absolutely have the best unit on the field in T.J. Watt and this defense.

The Raiders are another one of those 1-1 home favorites coming off a loss that only cover 33% of the time in Week 3. They're also playing a Week 3 home opener, an odd spot where teams have covered only 36% of the time. The trends favor Pittsburgh, and you're getting the key number and Tomlin as a dog. Fire away.

Is this square? Absolutely. Is it fun watching one of the greatest touchdown threats in NFL history do what he does best and get into the end zone to win us some money? Also absolutely.

Adams has scored a touchdown in nine of 19 Raiders games, just under half. I'd usually expect this number to have a minus in front of it, but we might be getting a discount with the concussion scare. Even squares win too sometimes.

I bet the Steelers as underdogs each of the first two games, but this is not a great Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot. Those underdog trends are all better at home, after a loss, and later in the season. Pittsburgh seems better than the Raiders, like by a lot? This feels trappy and way too easy. I'm suspicious.

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Eagles vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks

Monday, Sep 25

7:15pm ET

ABC

Eagles Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4.5 -118	45 -110o / -110u	-235

Buccaneers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4.5 -104	45 -110o / -110u	+194

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• This probably wasn't supposed to end up as the marquee Monday Night Football game of the two, but here we are with a pair of undefeated teams vying for a spot atop the NFC, and sharp money has come in all week on the Bucs, pushing the line down.
• The Eagles and Bucs are the two luckiest teams in football, according to our Luck Rankings.
• Monday night road favorites of three to seven points — like the Eagles — are 46-33 ATS (58%) over the past two decades.

This is a Luck Rankings pick. Both the Eagles and Bucs have been lucky to score as much as they have so far. Neither offense has been great, and Monday night games continue to be great under plays. Primetime unders have hit at a 60% clip over the past four years and are off to a 5-2 start this season (71%), and home underdog unders are 61% the past two seasons.

The Eagles clearly haven't hit their Super Bowl stride yet. They're making it work, but it might be a bit ugly until they figure a few things out.

As great as the Eagles offense is supposed to be, something has felt off through two weeks. The Eagles ran all over Minnesota, but the passing game has looked off. New offensive coordinator Brian Johnson doesn't feel like he's found his rhythm calling plays yet, and Jalen Hurts doesn't look comfortable.

The Bucs have been terrific against the run for years with Vita Vea clogging up the middle. If they can slow this rushing attack and force Hurts to find a rhythm in the passing game, Todd Bowles and the defense can drag this game into the mud and keep it interesting. The Bucs have allowed 17 points each game.

I leaned Bucs +6.5 when this line reopened on Sunday, but now the line is in no man's land at +4.5 or +5 and I'm not seeing much value. Are the Bucs legit and better than we thought? Is Philadelphia more good than great this season and still getting too much respect from last year? I'll be watching and learning Monday, but I'll sit this one out.

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Rams vs Bengals Odds, Picks

Monday, Sep 25

8:15pm ET

ESPN

Rams Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2.5 -110	43.5 -110o / -110u	+120

Bengals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-2.5 -110	43.5 -110o / -110u	-142

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• As of Thursday night, we still don't know whether Joe Burrow will play. He hasn't practiced this week and hasn't looked like himself this season, but the latest line movement seems to indicate optimism he'll play. If Burrow sits, backup Jake Browning and his one career pass attempt would get the start.
• Needless to say, this is the Kitchen Sink-iest spot of all the Kitchen Sink teams this year. The Bengals opened the year among the Super Bowl favorites. They absolutely have to have this one at 0-2.

We hit Stafford's passing yards over with ease last week, so let's go back to the well. Is Stafford a top-three QB in the NFC right now? Is he No. 1? Stafford looks healthy and amazing, and he and rookie Puka Nakua are lighting up defenses, so why should we believe he'll slow down now?

This line is higher than the one a week ago, but still not high enough. Stafford has gone over this number in 18 of 28 games with the Rams (64%), with a few other near misses. In fact, take some of last week's winnings and sprinkle Stafford at +2200 to lead the league in passing yards at DraftKings. He's second in attempts and third in yards, and he'll only get better once Cooper Kupp returns.

I'm tailing our touchdown expert Gilles Gallant on this one. Chase has never gone three straight games without finding the endzone, and this is Game 3 after two scoreless outings to start the season. This is another spot where the line is probably typically closer to even odds, and we're getting some extra juice with the Bengals' struggles and unknowns at quarterback.

Whoever's out there, expect them to look for the best player on the field in the money zone.

I can't get any money in on this one until we know what's happening with Burrow. The value has probably gone if you wanted the Rams, and I lean Bengals in this desperation spot, but I can't play either side right now.

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NFL Week 3 Games in Progress/Completed

Broncos vs Dolphins Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

CBS

Broncos Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+6 -110	47.5 -110o / -110u	+205

Dolphins Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-6 -110	47.5 -110o / -110u	-250

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• If you're a trends better, it's Denver or nothing. This is an absolute trends bonanza for the Broncos. They fit every one of those Kitchen Sink trends, plus a litany of others.
• Our Luck Rankings say Miami has been the third luckiest team in the NFL through two weeks, while the Broncos have been the second unluckiest. Denver is a top Luck Rankings play of the week.

As frustrating as this Broncos season has been to start, the offense has actually moved the ball pretty well. Denver ranks third in Success Rate, and this talented pass defense can compete with the high-flying Dolphins, especially if Jaylen Waddle is limited or out and Pat Surtain can chase Tyreek Hill around all game.

It's not just the Kitchen Sink trends, either. Week 3 road underdogs of seven or less are 60% ATS, and teams playing their home opener in Week 3 like Miami are 20-36-2 ATS (36%). Sean Payton has been outstanding after a loss (63% ATS) and as an underdog (61%), and Russell Wilson has been just as good (60% and 68%) in those spots.

Books still aren't giving Tua Tagovailoa and this passing offense enough respect. Tagovailoa averages 297 passing yards a game under Mike McDaniel when he plays at least half the snaps, and he's gone over 264.5 in 10 of the 14 (71%). Denver ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA, including 28th against the pass.

Don't get too crazy with escalator bets, but you might consider 300+ yards at +225 (Caesars). Tagovailoa has at least 295 yards in exactly half of those 14 McDaniel games, so the odds are in our favor.

Trust the barrage of trends and bet the Broncos — and the trends say sprinkle the moneyline too at +230.

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Texans vs Jaguars Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

FOX

Texans Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+7.5 -110	43.5 -110o / -110u	+300

Jaguars Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-7.5 -110	43.5 -110o / -110u	-385

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Jaguars dominated the Texans in January, but Houston had won nine straight in this division rivalry before that.
• Trevor Lawrence is 2-6 ATS as a favorite, including 0-4 as a favorite of four or more. Three of those four came against the Texans and were all outright losses as a heavy favorite.

The Texans are another Kitchen Sink team, and they're my favorite one on the slate.

It's been ugly for Houston so far, but it's not just the Texans' fault. Houston was missing four of its five offensive linemen Sunday plus both starting safeties, and this line reflects what the Texans have looked like through two weeks, but not what they can be healthy. We should get closer to that this week with stud LT Laremy Tunsil back and S Jimmie Ward finally making his debut.

Jacksonville ranks 31st in Pass Rush Win Rate, so C.J. Stroud should have time to stand and deliver, while Houston ranks seventh itself and could get after Trevor Lawrence behind an equally porous Jacksonville line. The Jaguars offense hasn't found its way with Press Taylor calling the plays, ranking bottom five in many advanced metrics. Houston has to have this to save its season. Kitchen Sink time.

The Jaguars defense has played surprisingly well, and this offense is not to be trusted just yet. A bet on Jacksonville is one on Josh Allen and the crew taking advantage of a rookie QB and a disastrous Texans offensive line to keep Houston off the scoreboard. The Texans had nine points in Week 1 and just 10 entering the fourth quarter in Week 2 before garbage time.

I'm giving the Texans one more chance and trusting all the trends pointing toward value on the line for Houston. Kitchen Sink teams since 2010 are 15-6-1 ATS (71%) in division games, and home 1-1 favorites coming off a loss in Week 3 like the Jags are 21-42-2 ATS (33%).

I'm betting Texans +10 as my top play of the week, but I'll take it a step further. Normally I'd recommend a moneyline sprinkle, but if Houston wins this game, they may well be in a tie at the top of the division. I'm going back in one more time. Sprinkle the 0-2 Texans to win the AFC South at +2500 (Bet365).

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Chargers vs Vikings Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

FOX

Chargers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -115	54.5 -110o / -110u	-102

Vikings Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -105	54.5 -110o / -110u	-116

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• This is the one Double Kitchen Sink game on the schedule, so those trends won't help us here. This one shapes up as a Loser Leaves Town match with both teams playing for their lives.
• When two winless teams play, the underdog is 70-37-4 ATS (65%).
• If you genuinely trust either one of these teams with the game on the line late enough to want a side here, I'm honestly not sure which teams you've been watching.

These teams have combined for four one-score losses this season — yes, that's every game. Chargers games have finished within seven points in 16 of 20 games (80%) since the start of last season. The Vikings have played 14 of 20 one-score games (70%) over that same stretch. Over the past four seasons, the Vikings (37) and Chargers (36) rank first and second in one-score games.

Every Chargers and Vikings fan in the world knows this game is coming down to some goofy, last-second ending that will ruin their lives on Sunday afternoon. Might as well bet on it, right?

So much for refocusing on that run game, eh? Minnesota has been the pass-heaviest team in the league in neutral situations, and Cam Akers or not, there's little reason for that to change here. The Chargers rank dead last in Defensive DVOA, both overall and against the pass, and J.C. Jackson has been abysmal. Justin Jefferson should eat this secondary alive.

Cousins had 344 and 364 yards the first two games, with 44 pass attempts in each. Let's keep the good times rolling, and you can play a little escalator at FanDuel, too: +210 for 325+ yards and +390 for 350.

I also like the Cousins prop, but there's no way this isn't the perfect bet for all self-loathing Chargers and Vikings fans.

You may have to get creative with how to bet this. The easiest way is a DraftKings Same Game Parlay of Chargers +7.5 and Vikings +7.5, which technically means we win on a tie, too. Other books offer Winning Margin, or you might have to play Chargers to win by 1-6 and Vikings to do the same, both around +300.

Our overtime guru Nick Giffen has also given the thumbs up on +1420 odds on this game going to overtime at PointsBet, if you really want to lean in.

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Colts vs Ravens Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

CBS

Colts Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+8 -110	43 -110o / -110u	+310

Ravens Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-8 -110	43 -110o / -110u	-400

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• A potential tropical storm could hit the East Coast this weekend and bring several inches of rain and wind gusts of 40 MPH or greater. That typically means difficulty passing and compressed totals and could impact games in New England, Washington, and this one in Baltimore. Grab any under you want right now, and beware betting any big favorites. Points could be at a premium.
• Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson is still a question mark for Sunday in concussion protocol, so that could leave Gardner Minshew making a road start. Is that a downgrade or an upgrade?
• The Ravens remain decimated by injuries. They'll be without their two best offensive lineman and three of the top five in the secondary.

Zack Moss is no Jonathan Taylor, but at least he's not Deon Jackson. Moss returned Week 2 and played 98% of the snaps, running 18 times for 88 yards and adding four catches, and he found the endzone, too. The Colts are tied for the league lead with four rushing touchdowns, and Richardson has three of them. If he's out and not there to vulture goal line carries, Moss is easily the most likely Colt to score.

Todd Monken's offense is coming together. Lamar Jackson is getting the ball out quickly, and the Ravens are stretching the field wide and attacking deep. Jackson has looked terrific, and this could be a breakout game against Indianapolis's young secondary if the weather doesn't derail things. The Colts allowed 241 yards to Trevor Lawrence and 384 to rookie C.J. Stroud.

It's time for this Monken offense to open up the throttle and let Jackson fly. If you're eyeing a Lamar MVP ticket, this could be your last chance to buy in at +1400.

I don't have a good read on this game. It's an historical rivalry, the storm is in play, and we don't know if Richardson is playing or what Monken's offense looks like yet. Some games are for watching and learning.

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Patriots vs Jets Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

CBS

Patriots Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-2.5 -115	36.5 -105o / -115u	-148

Jets Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2.5 -105	36.5 -105o / -115u	+126

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• New England has won 14 in a row against the Jets since December 2015, and the last Jets victory over the Patriots in regulation came way back in the 2011 playoffs and featured Mark Sanchez. Woof.
• The Patriots rank as the unluckiest team in the NFL this season, per our Luck Rankings. The Jets rank seventh luckiest despite the Aaron Rodgers injury, so that could be advantage: New England.
• This is another of those games that could be impacted by the East Coast tropical storm.
• No offense but… no seriously, don't expect to see much offense in this one. Defenses reign.

There's only one way to bet this game, and it's some version of an under. You know Bill Belichick isn't losing any sleep over facing Zach Wilson this week.

Wilson has two TDs, seven interceptions, and 11 sacks in four losses to the Patriots. The Jets have scored 32 points this season. That's two awesome Garrett Wilson plays, a miracle overtime punt return, and four field goals. At 17.5, New York either needs two TDs and a pair of FGs or one TD and four field goals. If Zach Wilson does that against this Belichick defense, he deserves our money.

Come on, it's not like Zach Wilson is suddenly going to go win this on his own.

A bet on the Jets is a bet on the defense. We know where our bread is buttered. Mac Jones road unders are 9-6 (60%), and Zach Wilson unders at 40 and below are 4-1, going under by over 10 PPG, with the only miss last week because of a two-point conversion. Points will be at a premium both ways. Trust the Sauce.

UUUUUUNDERRRRRRRR.

Don't be thrown off by the low total. This is Jets football now. Unders at 37 and below since November 2019 are a sparkling 18-5 (78%), with misses at 38, 39, 40, and 41. We are not getting many points here, especially if that tropical storm has anything to do with it.

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Bills vs Commanders Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

CBS

Bills Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-6 -110	43 -110o / -110u	-245

Commanders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+6 -110	43 -110o / -110u	+200

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• We don't get many home 2-0 underdogs of six or more points like Washington, but they've performed well over the last two decades at 7-2 ATS.
• A weekend tropical storm headed to the East Coast could have a direct impact on this game, with conditions making passing and scoring difficult.
• This is one of two Super Bowl rematches in Week 3. Quick, someone make sure Thurman Thomas's helmet is ready.

Washington is 2-0 but eked out late comeback wins over a pair of 0-2 teams, Arizona and Denver. The comeback counts, but so does the big hole they built to start with. Sam Howell made some throws but is still struggling with pocket presence.

Hey, you know who's better than Sam Howell? Josh Allen! The Bills looked just fine last week after shaking off Week 1, and you already know the stat: Buffalo has won by at least eight points in 28 of its last 32 wins (88%). When the Bills win, they win big.

If the Commanders are going to make this game competitive, it'll almost certainly have to include this nasty defensive line making Josh Allen's life miserable and forcing him into a couple of those mistakes we saw in the Monday night opener against the Jets. Now that Chase Young is back opposite Montez Sweat, Washington can win in the trenches and force some Allen turnovers.

You already know all about Emmanuel Forbes' NCAA-record six pick-6s, and there's always the chance of a strip sack run out or a big special teams play. Make sure to play this one at DraftKings (not FanDuel) so you get credit for special teams TDs, too, as not every book combines them with the defense for this prop.

I grabbed Bills -5 last week on the Lookahead on The Action Network Podcast, but I can't shake the feeling that Washington feels frisky and decided to use our handy Hedge Calculator to hedge out and lock in a small CLV profit with the potential tropical storm news, since that puts points at a premium. That news is helpful for sloppy turnovers though, so let's hope Washington's defense makes a big play.

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Falcons vs Lions Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

FOX

Falcons Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -102	46.5 -105o / -115u	+138

Lions Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -120	46.5 -105o / -115u	-164

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• The Lions are all sorts of banged up. David Montgomery is in doubt with a quad injury, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing with turf toe. The elite offensive line is compromised with LT Taylor Decker and RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai out, and both safeties will miss too.
• Beware home 1-1 favorites in Week 3 coming off a loss, like the Lions. It's easy to expect a nice bounce back win from a team that looked so good in Week 1, but such teams are 21-42-2 ATS (33%).

This Falcons season is really coming together, but it doesn't seem like anyone really believes yet. Just as well, since that means value on this line with Atlanta more than a field goal underdog at some books despite a 2-0 record.

Atlanta's offense hasn't totally come together, and it's fair to ask some questions about Desmond Ridder and wonder when Arthur Smith will really unleash Bijan Robinson, but the defense has been really impressive with Jessie Bates, David Onyemata, and Kaden Elliss looking like stellar additions.

Trust that improved defense against a banged-up Lions attack, and trust Smith's offense against a beatable Detroit defense. Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should run wild.

I'm not expecting Montgomery to play, so that sets up for a possible breakout day for Gibbs in a rookie showdown against Bijan Robinson. Gibbs was up to 48% of the snaps in Week 2 but has had only seven carries each week, so I'd rather play him as a pass catcher. He saw nine targets Sunday, a huge number considering he played under half the snaps, and caught seven balls for 39 yards.

Gibbs could lead the team in receptions, especially with St. Brown is banged up. I expect 5-to-7 catches and will bet Gibbs as an escalator at five (+240, Bet365), six (+525), and seven receptions (+1125). Play smaller units at each increasing level but let the escalator do the work for you, with each prop hit just getting you closer and increasing your edge advantage at the next level up.

I grabbed Falcons ML +210 as a bonus Lookahead on the app Sunday morning, then doubled down taking Atlanta +5.5 on The Hot Read on Sunday night's Action Network Podcast. The line moved toward Atlanta as expected and robbed a lot of the value, but I still like Atlanta. Bet them at +3.5 or longer, or reduce your bet to a lean if it's stuck at that key number of three. I'll bet the Gibbs receptions escalator too.

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Saints vs Packers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

FOX

Saints Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1 -115	42 -110o / -110u	+100

Packers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1 -105	42 -110o / -110u	-120

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Neither team has a great run defense, but Alvin Kamara is still suspended for New Orleans while Aaron Jones is trending towards returning for Green Bay. Advantage Packers.
• The Saints are 0-2 ATS, so they fit a couple Kitchen Sink trends despite the 2-0 SU start.
• Green Bay is 13-4 ATS (76%) after a loss under Matt LaFleur.

We're sure Jordan Love is good now? Love leads the NFL in EPA, but he's done it against the Bears and Falcons, and this Saints defense is another animal. They're No. 4 in Defensive DVOA so far and have finished top eight in each of the past six years under Dennis Allen.

Love hasn't thrown an interception this season, but he's had accuracy issues and has been a turnover machine at every level. If you go back to college, Love has thrown at least one interception in 13 of his last 18 games (72%) when he's played at least half the snaps, with multiple INTs in seven of the last 16. He's +425 (Bet365) to throw two picks, if you want to get spicy. Let's see him prove it against a real defense.

You know how good the Packers are at Lambeau, so just take the better team at home.

Green Bay does look like the better team. Love has been terrific, even missing his top weapons, and the Packers should be able to run the ball and make life easy on their QB. Green Bay is still undervalued in the division, too, at +250 (Bet365). FTN makes the Packers 51% to win the NFC North, so if you like them here, you should play the division as well. I grabbed them +400 before the season, and I'm adding to my position.

This is just trusting my preseason read. I like the Packers and like what I've seen so far. Jordan Love has shown growth going through his progressions and making decisions, and I haven't been particularly impressed with the Saints eking out wins over the Titans and Panthers.

Play the -118 ML instead of Packers -1.5 (-110). Tie gets our money back, and a one-point win is a win — but both of those bets lose at -1.5. Eight cents is a small price to pay for that security.

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Titans vs Browns Odds, Picks

Sunday, Sep 24

1:00pm ET

CBS

Titans Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3.5 -118	38.5 -110o / -110u	+142

Browns Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3.5 -102	38.5 -110o / -110u	-170

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Nick Chubb is out for the season after that gruesome knee injury Monday night. The Browns also already lost RT Jack Conklin for the year. Cleveland signed Kareem Hunt, but this elite rushing attack has been badly compromised.
• Mike Vrabel is always a good bet as an underdog. As a dog of three or more points, Vrabel is 23-9-1 ATS (72%), including a winning record straight up at 19-14, an absurd 68% ROI on the moneyline.
• Kevin Stefanski (34%) and Deshaun Watson (39%) have struggled ATS as favorites.

No one will ever fault you for just blindly betting Mike Vrabel as an underdog of three or longer considering those outlandish trends. The game script sets up nicely. The Titans can run and stop the run, stifling the thing Cleveland does best and ramming Derrick Henry down their throats all game against a beatable run defense.

Home 1-1 favorites coming off a loss in Week 3 like the Browns are 21-42-2 ATS (33%), so teams don't always bounce back like you think. Underdogs of four or less in games with a total under 42 are 81-47-2 ATS (63%) since 2018. Points could be hard to come by. Say thank you and take the 3.5.

With Chubb and Conklin out, the Browns season now rests on the shoulders of Deshaun Watson. * gulp *

Watson has got to show up in this spot. Tennessee's defense is a pass funnel. The Titans will stop the run and force Watson to beat them with throws down the field. Tennessee has allowed the fifth most passing yards at 281.5 YPG. It's now or never for Watson. Time to stop cashing checks and do something useful.

I like betting Vrabel as an underdog and lean Tennessee's direction with so many trends in their favor, but I'm also pretty worried about the worst offensive line in the league going up against Myles Garrett and this nasty Jim Schwartz defense that hasn't even allowed an opponent into the red zone yet this season. Pass.

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Brandon Anderson's Week 3 Betting Card

• Texans +10 and sprinkle Houston to win AFC South +2500
• Panthers +6.5 and sprinkle Carolina ML +235
• Broncos +6.5 and sprinkle Denver ML +230
• Tua Tagovailoa over 264.5 passing yards
• Falcons +3.5
• Jahmyr Gibbs receptions escalator: 5 (+240), 6 (+525), 7 (+1125)
• Chargers or Vikings to win by 7 or less +105
• Kirk Cousins passing yards escalator: 300 (+112), 325 (+210), 350 (+390)
• Packers ML -118 and Packers to win the NFC North +250
• Patriots/Jets under 37
• Washington D/ST Anytime TD +1000