Nick Giffen

Deebo Samuel over 37.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM) Things are lining up perfectly for Deebo Samuel to have a big day against the Vikings, and it all starts with his teammates. With Terry McLaurin fully healthy now and expected to play a full complement of snaps, and the emergence of Treylon Burks opposite McLaurin in 3 WR sets, Samuel can operate from the slot or backfield a high percentage of the time. That's perfect because Minnesota allows the third highest percentage of slot targets compared to wide targets in the NFL, and they also play -- by far -- the most two-high safety looks in the league. Deebo leads the team in target share vs. two-high looks, and also leads the team in target share vs. zone coverage of which the Vikings lean toward as well compared to league averages. The Vikings also blitz a ton. North of 40% of the time they are sending extra defenders, and when they don't generate pressure on those blitzes that favors Samuel as well. He's targeted an absurd 32% of routes when Daniels is blitzed but it doesn't generate pressure which the Vikings do more than any other team. The Vikings also rank eighth worst in yards after the catch allowed because they allow the third highest expected yards after the catch thanks to their coverage schemes. Deebo has cleared this line in 4 of 5 games with Daniels at QB, 4 of 5 games against teams that play a higher rate of zone than league average, and 3 of 4 games against teams that play more than a 55% rate of two-high safety looks. I'd play this up to 40.5.

This is just too long