Nick Giffen

Josh Allen under 38.5 rush yds (-110 at Bet365) Yes, I know Josh Allen runs a ton in the postseason, but this line is too high even considering that. Over his last eight playoff starts, Allen's average rushing yards is 41.3, but his median rushing yards is 36, which is already below this line, and that's despite him rushing an average of nine times per game. The Broncos should be a particularly hard defense to run against for a multitude of reasons. First, they limit QB scrambles, allowing the 4th-fewest QB adjusted scrambles per game, and the 5th-lowest QB adjusted scramble rate. That seems counterintuitive knowing they are a high pressure, man-heavy defense, but my theory is that they are just so quick to the QB that they get more sacks, preventing more scrambles and also causing more throwaways. And in fact, that's the case as the Broncos rank second in QB-adjusted sacks + throwaways, which removes sacks that were the QBs fault, causing a forced sack or throwaway on 12.3% of all dropbacks. Then, when QBs do scramble on Denver it hasn't been easy sledding. The Broncos rank fourth in raw yards per carry allowed on scrambles, and third in both QB-adjusted scramble yards per carry and QB adjusted scramble yards per dropback. We QB adjust these numbers to account for the fact that some teams face a ton of Mall Santas, while others face a ton of rushing QBs. Denver has been in the latter group, facing QBs such as Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Jaxson Dart, Patrick Mahomes (twice), Marcus Mariota, and Trevor Lawrence, all of whom have scramble games of at least 44 yard this year, and all but Mariota with a game north of 50 yards. Yet, all year the maximum number of scramble yards Denver allowed in a game was 31 (if we remove Week 18 against Trey Lance with backups playing much of fourth quarter when he scrambled for 47 yards). I'm projecting Allen's average yardage closer to 36 yards, but his median even lower around 33.5. I'd play this below the current lines of 36.5 at DK or FD as well, if you don't have Bet365 available to you.

Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush under 11.5 yards (+104 at FanDuel) Just two weeks ago CMC faced the Seahawks, and I gave out his Longest Rush under 13.5 yards and said I'd even play it below 11.5. Then he went and ran for a longest rush of just 5 yards in that game. Yes, it was on only eight carries, but it followed the bigger trend that has plagued him all year. Against top-13 ranked run defenses, by DVOA, CMC has 134 rushing attempts from at least 12 yards away from the end zone in 10 games. He has exactly 1 carry longer than 11.5 yards. Adding in rushes from at least 10 yards away from the end zone, gives him two more attempts. In those 136 attempts he has just five total rushes hitting double digits, adding in two 11-yard carries and two 10-yard carries. He's now also lost George Kittle who is an excellent run-blocking TE, and has averaged 0.2 yards per carry less in games Kittle has missed. If I liked this line two weeks ago, I have to like it now with two extra games added in against top-13 rush defenses where he failed to produce a run beyond 11.5 yards.

CJ Stroud over 206.5 pass yds (-110 at B365) Stroud hit 250 passing yards last week in a game they were leading for the majority of the plays (42 of 68 offensive plays run wiht a lead) despite some mishaps with fumbles, an interception, a few drops, and a missed throw to a wide open Nico Collins at the end of the first half that could have put him above 300 yards total. That's because he had a great matchup against Pittsburgh, and that's a similar spot he finds himself against New England here, now as an underdog. The Patriots rank 25th in defensive pass DVOA despite allowing the ninth fewest passing yards per game. That's because the Patriots have played, well, almost nobody. Only Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills rank inside the top half of pass offenses faced by DVOA (technically the Ravens are 16th, but they had Tyler Huntley for half the game), and Buffalo is a run-heavy team so Allen doesn't even rank ahead of Stroud in passing yards per game. New England doesn't generate pressure at a high rate, which is where Stroud struggles most, ranking 16th in pressure rate over expectation. They also play man coverage at an above average rate which helps Stroud, even with Collins out. Another reason the Patriots have allowed so few passing yards against is because they control time of possession, especially in the first half, which is a lot easier to do against slow paced teams with bad passing offenses. Patriots opponents have averaged the second-longest seconds per snap in the first half, but Houston plays at a much faster first-half pace, a full two seconds per play faster than the average Patriots opponent. In fact, the Texans have run the most first-half plays per game in the league. I like Stroud to clear 206.5 against a team ranked 25th in pass defense efficiency, especially one that plays to his strengths and eliminates his weaknesses as a QB.