Nick Giffen

Nick Chubb over 15.5 rush yds (-110 at Bet365, -115 at BetMGM and HardRock) Chubb has seen his role greatly diminished over the last three weeks, with just 4.67 carries per game. However, in two of the last six games he's still seen double-digit carries, so I don't think we can fully bake him into a 3-6 carry per game role. Using a weighted average I'm getting around 5.9 carries expected for Chubb. Chubb's matchup against the Colts suits him well as the plurality of his runs go to the right (45.7%). That produces his largest yards per carry of the three directions at 4.35 ypc and matches up well against the Colts who allow the most ypc on runs to the right (4.53) compared to middle (2.88) or left (3.89). Additionally, Chubb's runs have primarily come using man or gap concepts (62%) which the Colts have fared slightly worse against, allowing a 3% higher success rate to these runs compared to zone concept runs and 0.26 yards per carry more. I'm projecting Chubb for 4.15 yards per carry, so that would put him around 24.5 yards on average. However, his rushing profile has a high gap between his mean and median carry, which lowers his median expectation to 18.5. That means I would only play this at 15.5 as I have him just under 58% to clear this number. The rest of the market is sitting at 17.5-18.5 for Chubb. The over is not playable at those books by my projections. This is one of the bigger values I'm showing on this game (the market is pretty sharp for this one). Given the relatively thin value and the market sitting at an unplayable number outside of a few books, I'll just make this a half unit play.

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Listed under Special Teams Props for CLE/SF https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-predictions-week-13-expert-data-driven-picks-for-sunday-nov-30

MGM off market. It is time

Breece Hall Longest Rush under 16.5 yards (-120 B365, -124 CZR, -125 at DK and MGM) I don't think the market has caught onto a trend I've been eyeing all year, but hadn't build up enough of a sample size for yet, and that's the explosive rushing rate for Breece Hall with Justin Fields at QB compared to Tyrod Taylor at QB. With Fields at QB, Breece Hall had 20 of 132 rushing attempts from at least 16 yards away from the end zone go for 10+ yards. That number dips to just 1 out of 26 carries with Taylor under center. This is likely because Fields is a bigger rushing threat, opening up more running lanes for Hall, while Tyrod gets most of his rushes scrambling rather than through designed plays that could open up lanes for his RB. Yes, Hall's carries with Taylor at QB have come against strong defenses (Tampa Bay, Baltimore), but both of those teams allow higher explosive run rates than the Falcons have this year. The matchup is also problematic for Hall, who runs north of 70% of his runs -- even with Taylor at QB -- with zone concept blocking. Atlanta has been much better against zone concept runs, allowing a 9.7% lower success rate and a full 1.22 yards per carry less against these runs than against man or gap concept runs. Additionally, Hall runs the plurality of the time to the left (45.5%) which is the direction the Falcons defense has been best, allowing 4.04 ypc on non-QB scramble runs at least 16 yards from the end zone compared to 5.14 over the middle and 5.01 to the right, while allowing just 3 explosive runs on 95 attempts meeting that criteria on runs to the left. I'm showing this close to 65% under, although there is uncertainty with a smaller sample size with Tyrod Taylor at QB, but I'm fine if you want to take under 15.5 if that's all you have available to you.

#Tailing @gneiffer07

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Luck Under, weather, each team likely down a starting Tackle, getting key number of 47

A+ grade luck side ... No. 11 of all time Marke moving to 6 so grab the last 6.5 available

A+ Grade Luck Side Patriots could be down their whole left side offensive line which are No. 4 overall LT Will Campbell and third round LG Jared Wilson from 2025 draft. Pats gave up 43.6% pressure rate to the No. 29 pressure Bengals with no Wilson and just 60% snaps from Campbell.