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Nick Giffen's Picks
Today
T.Thrastarson o0.5 3pt M-120
WSU
2
0
SEA
0.6u
1st 15:48
Has averaged 1 per game and nothing about this matchup shows it should be any lower. If anything his 3pt% is too low compared to his career average and he should see some improved 3pt shooting
Projecting 1.08
46
WSU +6-110
WSU
2
0
SEA
0.28u
1st 15:48
Small lean on this after diving through player props.
Shooting regression and stylistic matchup should benefit Wazzu here
40
3-WAY PARLAY+500
0.2u
Bogavac P+R+A is the big value here. His mins have been capped at 24 when Trimble plays but this line is set like hes playing ~30 like he was with Trimble out. And he plays even fewer in closer games (under 15 pts margin) where his PRA is just 6 and 9 in the two representative games.
Pairing it with the other two biggest projection values
L.Bogavac u18 Pts+Rebs+Ast-130
FSU
66
79
UNC
FINAL 12/31
H.Veesaar o16.5 Pts-115
FSU
66
79
UNC
FINAL 12/31
T.Thrastarson o0.5 3pt M-125
WSU
2
0
SEA
1st 15:48
16
Pending
Lowest Scoring Team (Regular Season): NY Jets+900
1u
3rd lowest Expected Score last year
4th largest O-line downgrade (-$30m AAV per 4for4)
Jets opposing D's spent most $ of all 32 schedules
Fields/Tyrod not upgrades/likely downgrades & will run more w/Fields eating clock
5th unluckiest set of opponents from last year (opponents regression to better results)
Tankapalooza
51
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-2-0 | 0% | -2.04u |
| Last 7 Days | 8-26-0 | 24% | -7.73u |
| Last 30 Days | 41-85-1 | 32% | -7.01u |
| All Time | 1266-2513-22 | 33% | 283.47u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 520-818-11 | 39% | 105.58u |
| NCAAB | 423-346-8 | 54% | 104.38u |
| NASCAR | 254-1195-2 | 18% | 52.62u |
| NHL | 3-1-0 | 75% | 3.57u |
| World Cup | 13-26-0 | 33% | 1.18u |
| FORMULA_ONE | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| NASCAR_XFINITY | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-4-0 | 20% | -0.95u |
| MLB | 2-4-0 | 33% | -1.71u |
| European Championship | 17-49-1 | 25% | -3.47u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
I bet on my favorite driver Kyle Kirkwood at 20-1 to win the Long Beach Grand Prix. I went to the race and watched him win it in person for his first career IndyCar win. It was the first time I watched him race an IndyCar in person, so I'm officially his good luck charm.
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