Nick Giffen

Projecting 13.4 ... NEB fouls at a very low rate so even more of of MSUs points will come from the field than normal Kohler doesnt reay get to the line, ao lore field goals benefits his scoring. NEB forces 3s and he will take his share, even with some expected 3Pt% shooting regression I still have him clearing this.

Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush under 13.5 (-109 BetRivers, -114 at FD, -120 at Caesars/theScore, -140 MGM) This line is way too high considering the opponent, and is being inflated by big CMC runs each of the last two weeks and clearing this in five of his last eight games. But those games he cleared this line came against mostly bad run defenses (by DVOA): Chicago (28th), Indianapolis (14th), Carolina (25th), Arizona (26th), and the New York Giants (32nd). Against top-10 run defenses by DVOA, McCaffrey has 114 rushing attempts in seven games, with a longest run of just 13 yards. Yes, that came against Seattle, but that is probably more of a fluke given Seattle ranks No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA and has allowed the lowest explosive run rate in the league. San Francisco star LT Trent Williams is not expected to play, which would hurt CMC even more in this market. This line is just way too high. I'd play this down to under 11.5 and feel good about it.