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Nick Giffen's Picks
Today
Pending
C.McCaffrey u13.5 Longest Rush-114
SEA
@
SF
1.71u
01/04 1:00 AM
Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush under 13.5 (-109 BetRivers, -114 at FD, -120 at Caesars/theScore, -140 MGM)
This line is way too high considering the opponent, and is being inflated by big CMC runs each of the last two weeks and clearing this in five of his last eight games.
But those games he cleared this line came against mostly bad run defenses (by DVOA): Chicago (28th), Indianapolis (14th), Carolina (25th), Arizona (26th), and the New York Giants (32nd).
Against top-10 run defenses by DVOA, McCaffrey has 114 rushing attempts in seven games, with a longest run of just 13 yards. Yes, that came against Seattle, but that is probably more of a fluke given Seattle ranks No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA and has allowed the lowest explosive run rate in the league.
San Francisco star LT Trent Williams is not expected to play, which would hurt CMC even more in this market.
This line is just way too high. I'd play this down to under 11.5 and feel good about it.
117
Lowest Scoring Team (Regular Season): NY Jets+900
1u
3rd lowest Expected Score last year
4th largest O-line downgrade (-$30m AAV per 4for4)
Jets opposing D's spent most $ of all 32 schedules
Fields/Tyrod not upgrades/likely downgrades & will run more w/Fields eating clock
5th unluckiest set of opponents from last year (opponents regression to better results)
Tankapalooza
51
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 5-25-0 | 17% | -11.11u |
| Last 30 Days | 35-80-1 | 30% | -11.62u |
| All Time | 1267-2519-22 | 33% | 282.60u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 520-818-11 | 39% | 105.58u |
| NCAAB | 424-352-8 | 54% | 103.51u |
| NASCAR | 254-1195-2 | 18% | 52.62u |
| NHL | 3-1-0 | 75% | 3.57u |
| World Cup | 13-26-0 | 33% | 1.18u |
| FORMULA_ONE | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| NASCAR_XFINITY | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-4-0 | 20% | -0.95u |
| MLB | 2-4-0 | 33% | -1.71u |
| European Championship | 17-49-1 | 25% | -3.47u |
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Favorite Bet of All-Time
I bet on my favorite driver Kyle Kirkwood at 20-1 to win the Long Beach Grand Prix. I went to the race and watched him win it in person for his first career IndyCar win. It was the first time I watched him race an IndyCar in person, so I'm officially his good luck charm.
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