Sean Koerner

Xavier has averaged 93 points over their last two games, but those came in fast-paced matchups against Providence and Butler. Creighton plays at a much slower pace, which should limit Xavier’s total number of possessions. This will also be just Xavier’s 6th road game of the season compared to 9 games at home, so their points per game are a bit inflated due to playing a low % of games on the road so far. I’m not expecting Xavier to turn the ball over much or get to the free-throw line often, meaning a higher % of their possessions should end in shot attempts. Creighton has been much more of a 2-point funnel defense, which is the opposite of Xavier’s preferred offensive approach. I’m projecting this closer to 72.

David Coit is coming off back-to-back monster performances and just put up 43 points (9/15 from three) against Penn State, a defense that has struggled to slow anyone down this season. While I won’t be shocked if Coit continues to be the centerpiece of the offense and they try to ride the hot hand, I do expect him to cool off enough against an Illinois defense that will be a much tougher test. Maryland has relied heavily on getting to the FT line for a high percentage of their points this season, but Illinois is allowing the lowest FT rate in the country. That means Maryland will likely need to rely much more on FG attempts, where they’ve struggled shooting the ball this season. Plus, Illinois plays at a slower pace and should dominate the offensive glass, which could extend their possessions and limit the overall offensive volume for Maryland in this matchup.