Real Madrid (3-0) and Liverpool (2-1) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Anfield in Liverpool.
Liverpool is favored at a +150 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (-100o / -127u) goals.
Let's get into my Real Madrid vs. Liverpool prediction.
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Prediction
Pick: Real Madrid to Win
My Real Madrid vs. Liverpool best bet is the Real Madrid moneyline.
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -190 | 3.5 -100o / -127u | +157 |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +135 | 3.5 -100o / -127u | +150 |
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Picks
Leg 1: Real Madrid to Win
Leg 2: Both Teams to Score: Yes
Leg 3: Over 2.5 Total Goals
Real Madrid to Win
Since the Liverpool vs Real Madrid odds were released, Real Madrid has moved from underdog to favorite in the 1x2 market. The away side's favoritism was encouraged by Liverpool’s recent string of defeats, which have derailed its title hopes and halted progress in the EFL Cup.
Recent injuries to Alexander Isak and Ryan Gravenberch have dented Arne Slot’s options in recent weeks, alongside a drop in form from individuals in Liverpool’s defence, and, notably, from Mohamed Salah. The Reds have managed to work their way back into games, but getting a result over the line has proved challenging.
Real Madrid will likely sit back and let Liverpool attack here, just as they did against Barcelona in the recent 2-1 El Clásico victory. Los Blancos’ 18.2 PPDA (passes per defensive action) against Barca, compared to the 10.27 PPDA in La Liga on average, shows how Xabi Alonso set up his team to counter in transition. A similar theme and approach might come to fruition here.
Our Liverpool vs Real Madrid predictions lean on the likelihood of Real Madrid possessing too much firepower for Liverpool to contain following turnovers. The likes of Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior should be able to exploit a Liverpool backline that has come under criticism in recent fixtures.
Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Total Goals
The start of the Champions League campaign has been goal-friendly to say the least. There has been an average of 3.7 goals per game in the league phase thus far, 0.44 more than last season. With the goal count climbing and goal difference becoming a bigger factor, we are backing Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals – Yes as part of our Liverpool vs Real Madrid predictions.
Pressure is growing on Arne Slot after a dismal run of form. The Dutchman guided Liverpool to the title last season, but the decision to overhaul the squad in the summer has backfired. The Reds look wide open defensively, which should mean we see plenty of goals when they take on Real Madrid.
Liverpool’s Champions League matches this season have seen an average of 4.0 goals, 1.25 more than the league phase matches in the 2024/25 campaign. The Reds beat Atletico Madrid 3-2 in their only home match in this competition to date. There were eight big chances created in that game, but Real has a far stronger attack than Atleti.
This selection has won in just one of Real’s three Champions League matches thus far, but the stats suggest there should have been more goals. Los Blancos' 1-0 win over Juventus on matchday one saw an extraordinary 41 shots. Liverpool is capable of putting this Real defense under pressure, and it should pay dividends with goals.
Both teams have built star-studded forward lines, and that should mean we see a feast of attacking football with plenty of goals.
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Real Madrid | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 37% | 22.3% | 40.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Real Madrid | Total Goals | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | 3.39 | 1.73 |
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Betting Analysis
Real Madrid has made the perfect start to its Champions League campaign, sitting just three points ahead of Liverpool going into matchday four. Both of these teams are expected to earn a place in the top eight, but a loss here could thwart Arne Slot’s ambitions.
Xabi Alonso showed he was willing to adapt in the recent 2-1 win over Barcelona. His Real Madrid team usually plays on the front foot, but it sat deep and invited the Blaugrana to attack, opting to hit Hansi Flick’s team on the counter. A similar approach could be beneficial at Anfield.
Slot has spoken openly about Liverpool’s struggles against teams that use a low block. Frankfurt opted for a different approach in the Reds’ last Champions League game and were punished. Real could remain compact and use the blistering pace of its attackers to terrorize the home defense. The Reds’ issues at full-back have been well documented, so marking the likes of Vinicius Jr. and Kylian Mbappe should prove problematic.
Nevertheless, Liverpool carries an attacking threat of its own. Hugo Ekitike is the only new signing that has really impressed, but there are plenty of others in Slots’ team who are capable of carving Real open. As a result, we should see plenty of chances at both ends.
