Arsenal (9-1-2) and Chelsea (7-3-2) will face off today at 11:30 a.m. EST at Stamford Bridge in London, .
Arsenal is favored at a +120 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-109o / -116u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick:Arsenal To Win
My Arsenal vs. Chelsea best bet is on Arsenal to win the match.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +110 | 2.5 -109o / -116u | +120 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -155 | 2.5 -109o / -116u | +240 |
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Pick
Pick:Arsenal To Win
Both teams secured big Champions League wins in midweek, so confidence is high in both camps. However, Arsenal has been the more consistent side this season, and its defensive strength gives Mikel Arteta’s team the edge. Therefore, we’re backing an away win as part of our Chelsea vs. Arsenal predictions.
Arsenal is unbeaten in 16 competitive matches, winning 14 during that stretch. Arteta’s side has averaged 2.25 goals per game while conceding just 0.38.
The underlying data supports their form. Arsenal has the lowest expected goals against (xGA) in the Premier League at 6.21, less than half of Manchester City, the second-best team in that metric.
The Gunners have also been more clinical than Chelsea in front of goal. Arsenal has scored 24 goals, tied with Manchester City for the most in the league. Chelsea has scored 23 despite slightly outperforming Arsenal in expected goals (xG).
Chelsea is also in good form, but inconsistency remains an issue in the league. The Blues suffered a 2-1 home defeat to Sunderland at the end of October and have won only three of their six Premier League home matches this season.
Moreover, Chelsea has failed to win any of its last seven meetings with Arsenal, losing five. The Gunners also won the xG battle in both encounters last season, and Arteta’s side looks even more complete this year.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 45.8% | 26.2 | 28.1% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.09 |
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
The runner-up hosts the Premier League leaders in the match that concludes Sunday’s action for Round 13.
Chelsea, six points behind Arsenal, has the chance to tighten the title race with a victory in this London derby. However, the Gunners — fresh off a 3-1 win over Bayern — look close to flawless at the moment. Over the last three league games, the Blues have collected nine points compared to Arsenal’s seven, but Mikel Arteta’s team remains the benchmark.
Arsenal has the opportunity to extend its lead at the top and virtually end the Premier League title race after just 13 matches. The Gunners have lost only once this year; by contrast, the average Premier League champion over the last decade has suffered 3.8 defeats. Manchester City has already lost four times, and an Arsenal win here would also hand Chelsea their fourth league defeat of the season.
History is on Arsenal’s side. Only six teams in Premier League history have held a six-point cushion after 12 games, and each of them went on to lift the trophy. Yet the league has also seen seven instances of teams overturning a six-point deficit at this stage and becoming champions. For that reason, Arsenal cannot afford a slip-up at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea enters this match after a convincing 3-0 win over Barcelona in the Champions League, and neutral fans may hope the Blues can keep the title race alive. Still, with Arsenal boasting the best defense in the league and riding high after their midweek European triumph, it’s difficult to envision a negative outcome for the visitors.
The latest Chelsea vs. Arsenal odds reflect this, with bookmakers giving the Gunners an implied win probability of more than 45%. The totals market remains split, with both under and over 2.5 goals priced equally, suggesting a tightly contested derby.
