Cardinals vs. Tigers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 4, 2026

May had a strong spring and looked set to get off to a good start with his new team, but had a rough debut, allowing 6 ER on 10 hits against the Rays. That said, there are reasons to expect a bounce-back here. His pitch mix and stuff both look improved. His fastball was up about 1.5 mph, he’s using his four-seamer more instead of leaning on the sinker, he’s throwing his changeup at a higher rate, and he brought back his curveball, which he hadn’t really used since 2019. May has always been a bit frustrating because he tends to pitch to contact more than you’d expect given the quality of his secondary pitches. Still, he’s consistently posted an above-average called strike rate. The Rays swung at 68% of his pitches in the zone in his debut, which is extremely high against him and left him with fewer opportunities to rack up called strikes. The Tigers profile much differently. They’re swinging at just a 62.8% rate on pitches in the zone so far this season, 5th lowest in the league. If that holds that plays right into May’s strength and it should allow May to generate more called strikes, get into more two-strike counts, and boost his K upside. The lineup setup helps as well. While the top three hitters are tougher to strike out, the 4-9 hitters project in the 25-29% K range against May the first time through, which should give him steady opportunities to rack up Ks. Detroit is also sending out 6 left-handed bats, which plays into May’s strengths. He’s struck out lefties at about a 6% higher rate over his career. Maybe May ends up being frustrating yet again this season, but I’m not going to overreact to one bad start when the pitch mix changes point to more upside. I’m projecting this closer to -145 to clear 4.5.