Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2024

Dodgers at Marlins

10:40 pm • SportsNet LA

Los Angeles Dodgers

0-3

9 - 11

Miami Marlins

1-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.McCaughan			9.00	0-0
B.Miller			8.52	2-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dodgers 0-3	-1.5-142	o9.5-110	-230
Marlins 1-0	+1.5+122	u9.5-110	+190

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

September 17, 2024

loanDepot parkMiami

B.Miller u17.5 Outs-132

Bobby Miller under 17.5 Outs (-132 FD) - Under in 9/12 games this season (averages 13.5 outs) - Under in 3 straight games and 7/L8 starts - On the road today where he is under in 4 straight and 6/7 on the season - Facing MIA who on the season rank 26th and 21st in wRC+ and OBP, but as of late they have been hitting the ball well ranking 5th in wRC+ and 2nd in OBP over the L15 days - MIA is a much better lineup vs RHP as most batters BA jumps from around .240 to .270 when facing RHP - MIA ranks 14th on the season in K%, but have 4 batters with K% of 24% and higher, so that could help run up Miller's PC and get him out earlier as well as the hits - He has allowed 3+ runs in 6 straight games and coming off back to back horrendous games allowing 5 hits in both and giving up 7 and 6 runs - Slight concern with the Dodgers using 4 BP arms yesterday, but Miller has been so bad and the Dodgers have at least a few arms they could use for when Miller blows up - This line has already bumped down to 16.5 on some books, so good value catching it on FD

T.Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases+115

1.15u

MIA o3.5 Team Total-105

G.Conine o0.5 Hits-121

B.Miller u5.5 Ks-101

0.99u

B.Miller u17.5 Outs-132

Miller is under in 9/12, including 6/7 on the road with a 11.39 ERA (5.41 xFIP), .483 wOBA, and a 2.2% K%-BB%. The Marlins have been sneaky good lately vs righties - L30 days with a 117 wRC+ and .784 OPS, including league average walk and called strike rates (they’ve been much more patient).

Under 9.5-104

0.5u

Flat to -120 or 9 (-101)

Featured Insight
The Dodgers have scored 5.5 runs per game on the road since last season -- highest in MLB (155 games). The Marlins have allowed 5.1 runs per game at home since last season -- second highest in MLB (156 games).

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Featured Insight
Marlins hitters have a groundball rate of 50% over the last two weeks -- highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Dodgers over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB.

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MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 53 of Marlins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 15th	@WSH	L 3-4	+1.5 W	U 8.5	WSH +147
Sep 14th	@WSH	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 9	WSH +120
Sep 13th	@WSH	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 8	WSH +120
Sep 12th	@WSH	W 6-3	+1.5 W	U 9	MIA +160
Sep 11th	@PIT	L 1-3	+1.5 L	U 9	PIT +130

Clayton Kershaw
P
Kershaw is out with toe
Out
Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Miller, P	65	2	2	4
RM.Grove, P	32	1.2	0	3
LA.Vesia, P	18	1.1	1	0
RR.Brasier, P	25	1	2	2
RB.Graterol, P	20	1	2	0
RD.Hudson, P	19	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Ohtani, DH	1-5	1	1	2
2M.Betts, RF	2-5	2	0	0
3F.Freeman, 1B	1-3	2	0	1
4T.Hernandez, LF	2-4	2	0	0
5M.Muncy, 3B	3-5	0	0	5
6T.Edman, CF	0-5	0	0	0
7G.Lux, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8M.Rojas, SS	1-4	1	1	1
9H.Feduccia, C	2-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.McCaughan, P	65	3.2	4	5
LA.Veneziano, P	25	1.1	2	1
RL.Bachar, P	16	1	1	0
RA.Bender, P	24	1	1	1
RD.Cronin, P	9	1	0	0
RJ.Tinoco, P	24	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Edwards, SS	1-5	1	0	0
2C.Norby, 3B	2-3	4	0	0
3J.Sanchez, LF	5-5	2	0	3
3C.Pache, PR	0-0	1	0	0
3C.Pache, CF	0-0	1	0	0
4J.Burger, 1B	1-5	1	1	4
5J.Bride, DH	1-5	0	0	1
6K.Stowers, CF	2-5	0	0	2
6K.Stowers, LF	2-5	0	0	2
7O.Lopez, 2B	2-4	1	1	1
8G.Conine, RF	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	1-3	1	0	0