Mariners vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - June 21, 2023

Mariners at Yankees

11:05 pm • Amazon Prime Video

Seattle Mariners

0-0

2 - 4

New York Yankees

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Brito			4.28	9-7
L.Castillo			3.34	14-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mariners 0-0	-1.5+105	o7.5+100	-154
Yankees 0-0	+1.5-126	u7.5-120	+130

Wednesday 11:05 p.m.

June 21, 2023

Yankee StadiumBronx

Over 7-120

This is one of our highest MLB edges on our FTN Model at FTNBets.com!

J. Brito u4.5 Ks-112

Brito with only 30 K in 40.1 IP this year, staying under in 6/9 starts. Very inefficient pitcher (4.04 pitches per PA would be 20th if he qualified) - bullpen is rested after off day + Cole pitching into 8th yesterday. Boone will have him on a very short leash. SEA does K a decent amount, but they also see a lot of pitches (3.97 per PA - 4th highest). I like them to chase Brito in the 5th inning.

J.Brito u4.5 Ks-102

0.98u

Available at FanDuel. I have Brito projected for 3.6 strikeouts tonight, well short of this mark. In the big leagues, his strikeout rate is just 16.9% with an 8.4% swinging-strike rate. When he went to Triple-A, the strikeout rate stayed largely stagnant at just 17.2%. It's hard to assume he unlocked somehting key down there. And it's not as if Brito has ever been a huge strikeout force to begin with. Brito has hit the over on this number three times in nine starts, so even with a plus matchup at home, I have a hard time not taking the under.

J.Kelenic o0.5 HR+470

0.3u

Available at FanDuel. Kelenic has been in a big homer drought recently with only one long ball this month. But he's still making quality contact with a 48.1% hard-hit rate in that time and an 11.1% barrel rate (including a barrel last night). He's just striking out too much. That's less of a concern against Jhony Brito, who hasn't gotten many strikeouts this year. I think Kelenic is undervalued at this number due to the matchup, his batted-ball data, and the massive park-factor upgrade in going to Yankee Stadium.

NYY +150

0.75u

Bet to +148

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The Yankees are 11-8 (.579) after a win as underdogs since last season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .415.

Anthony Volpe has an OPS of just .391 with two strikes this season -- ninth worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Luis Castillo has allowed an OPS of just .350 (205 PAs) with two strikes this season -- fourth best among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

Anthony Volpe has struck out in 31% of PA's this season -- seventh highest in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 32% vs right-handed batters this season -- eighth highest among qualified SPs-- 89th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (19/128) against Jhony Brito this season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph'>Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% (4/24) against Jhony Brito on elevated fastballs this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 39% -- 99th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has walked 6 of 32 right-handed batters (19%) -- highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	80-82	35-46	45-36	62-72	18-9
Mariners	74-88	38-43	36-45	47-62	26-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	87-69-6	45-33-3	42-36-3	76-54-4	11-14-2
Mariners	76-76-10	31-45-5	45-31-5	50-55-4	25-21-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	94-68	44-37	50-31	76-58	18-9
Mariners	85-77	49-32	36-45	62-47	23-29

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 20th	SEA	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 7	NYY -115
Jun 18th	@BOS	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 8.5	BOS +110
Jun 18th	@BOS	L 2-6	-1.5 L	U 9	BOS -115
Jun 16th	@BOS	L 5-15	+1.5 L	O 10	BOS +108
Jun 14th	@NYM	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYM -105

JT Brubaker
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Brubaker is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Castillo, P	103	5	3	3
RM.Brash, P	15	1	0	0
LG.Speier, P	16	1	1	1
LT.Saucedo, P	17	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Caballero, SS	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Rodriguez, CF	0-2	1	0	0
3T.France, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4T.Hernandez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Kelenic, LF	1-3	0	0	1
6E.Suarez, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7C.Raleigh, C	0-3	0	0	0
8M.Ford, DH	0-2	0	0	0
8A. Pollock, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8A. Pollock, DH	0-1	0	0	0
9K. Wong, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
9D.Moore, PH	1-1	1	1	1
9D.Moore, 2B	1-1	1	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Brito, P	81	5.2	3	0
RJ. Cordero, P	12	1.1	1	0
LW.Peralta, P	9	0.2	0	1
RM.King, P	14	0.2	1	1
RT.Kahnle, P	6	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Bauers, RF	1-2	1	1	2
1I.Kiner-Falefa, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1I.Kiner-Falefa, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2G.Torres, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
3W.Calhoun, DH	1-3	0	0	0
4A.Rizzo, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5J. Donaldson, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6H.Bader, CF	0-4	0	0	0
7B.McKinney, LF	2-3	1	1	1
7B.McKinney, RF	2-3	1	1	1
8K.Higashioka, C	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Volpe, SS	1-2	2	1	1