Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 19, 2023

Orioles at Blue Jays

11:07 pm • Apple TV+

Baltimore Orioles

0-0

6 - 2

Toronto Blue Jays

10-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Y.Kikuchi			3.87	11-6
K.Gibson			4.73	15-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 0-0	+1.5-147	o9.5+100	+136
Blue Jays 10-6	-1.5+122	u9.5-120	-163

Friday 11:07 p.m.

May 19, 2023

Rogers CentreToronto

Over 9.5-105

1.05u

BAL +132

1.45u

Y.Kikuchi u5.5 Ks-112

0.89u

Available at FanDuel. I see two paths to an under for Kikuchi. One, he goes under organically against an offense with a 20.7% strikeout rate against lefties. Given Kikuchi's strikeout rate is at 22.9% this year, that's fully conceivable. Two, Kikuchi's still rough batted-ball data could come back to bite him. The Orioles have hit lefties well this year, leaving him vulnerable to an outing where he gets hit around and yanked early. I think both paths have legitimate shots of hitting. My model has Kikuchi projected for 4.9 strikeouts, a good chunk below the 6 he'd need to hit the over here.

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The Blue Jays are 36-40 (.474) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season -- 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Blue Jays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	91-71	49-32	42-39	42-45	48-25
Orioles	78-84	37-44	41-40	25-41	51-42

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	86-71-5	45-34-2	41-37-3	46-40-1	39-30-4
Orioles	65-92-5	34-44-3	31-48-2	31-32-3	32-59-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	94-68	54-27	40-41	52-35	41-32
Orioles	75-87	39-42	36-45	32-34	40-53

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 18th	NYY	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 9	NYY -137
May 17th	NYY	W 3-0	+1.5 W	U 8	TOR -104
May 16th	NYY	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 8	NYY -182
May 15th	NYY	L 4-7	-1.5 L	O 9.5	NYY -150
May 14th	ATL	W 6-5	+1.5 W	O 9.5	TOR -118

Bowden Francis
SP
Francis is out with shoulder
Out

Grayson Rodriguez
SP
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Gibson, P	95	7	5	1
RY.Cano, P	19	1	1	1
RF.Bautista, P	25	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Mullins, CF	1-5	0	0	0
2A.Rutschman, C	0-3	1	0	0
3R.Mountcastle, 1B	1-3	1	1	3
4A.Santander, DH	1-2	1	1	1
5A.Hays, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.McKenna, RF	1-4	0	0	0
7J.Mateo, SS	1-4	1	0	0
8A.Frazier, 2B	1-4	1	1	2
9J.Ortiz, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
9G.Henderson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9G.Henderson, 3B	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LY.Kikuchi, P	81	4.2	3	3
RT.Richards, P	22	1.1	2	1
LT.Mayza, P	9	1	0	0
RA. Bass, P	22	1	1	0
RE.Swanson, P	14	0.2	2	2
RT.Hatch, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1G.Springer, RF	2-4	0	0
2B.Bichette, SS	0-4	0	1
3V.Guerrero, DH	1-4	0	0
4D.Varsho, LF	0-4	0	0
5M.Chapman, 3B	0-4	0	0
6B. Belt, 1B	1-2	1	0
7W.Merrifield, 2B	1-3	0	0
8D.Jansen, C	2-4	0	1
9K.Kiermaier, CF	1-4	1	0