Orioles vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2024

Orioles at Twins

12:10 am • BSN

Baltimore Orioles

9-11

7 - 2

Minnesota Twins

7-14

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10
C.Povich			5.20	3-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 9-11	+1.5	+1.5-170	o8-112	+124
Twins 7-14	u8.5	-1.5+142	u8-108	-148

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

September 28, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

BAL +140

1.4u

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Cade Povich’s 5.59 ERA and 2-9 record are concerning, but his xERA (4.14) suggests he’s performed better than it seems. He needs to reduce home runs and walks. The Orioles' offense, ranking 12th in wOBA post-All-Star break, can cover for his struggles. Pablo López, with a 2.74 ERA post-break, is showing fatigue, and Minnesota’s offense ranks 27th in wRC+. Baltimore's top-10 offense may capitalize on Minnesota's weaknesses.

B.Buxton o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-140

Over 8-110

Under 8.5-106

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Under 8.5+100

0.5u

Bet to -112

BAL +145

0.73u

Bet to +138

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Featured Insight
The Twins are batting .302 with RISP over the last two weeks -- fourth best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .375 (15-for-40) against Orioles RPs with RISP over the last two weeks -- second worst in MLB.

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The Orioles are 160-12 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .900.

Gunnar Henderson is batting .421 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- 10th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has a strike rate of 68% on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- third highest among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Ryan Mountcastle is batting .418 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for 14th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has a strike rate of 67% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- eighth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 4-8 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Twins' 9 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	9-12	5-4	4-8	7-8	2-4
Orioles	8-12	4-6	4-6	4-7	4-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	8-11-2	3-5-1	5-6-1	6-7-2	2-4
Orioles	12-5-3	7-1-2	5-4-1	8-1-2	4-4-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	7-14	4-5	3-9	6-9	1-5
Orioles	9-11	5-5	4-6	5-6	4-5

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 26th	MIA	L 6-8	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIA -262
Sep 25th	MIA	W 8-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	MIN -197
Sep 24th	MIA	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8	MIA -254
Sep 22nd	@BOS	L 3-9	-1.5 L	O 8	BOS -121
Sep 22nd	@BOS	L 1-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	BOS -143

Royce Lewis
IF
Lewis is out with hamstring
Out
Pablo Lopez
P
Lopez is out with hamstring
Out

Albert Suarez
P
Suarez is out with shoulder
Out
Tyler O'Neill
OF
O'Neill is day-to-day with neck
Day-to-Day
Trevor Rogers
P
Rogers is out with knee
Out
Kyle Bradish
P
Bradish is out with elbow
Out
Grayson Rodriguez
P
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

Chayce McDermott
P
McDermott is questionable with back
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Povich, P	79	5.2	2	0
RJ.Webb, P	22	1.1	2	0
LD.Coulombe, P	17	1	0	0
RS.Dominguez, P	22	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Henderson, SS	0-3	0	0	1
2J.Westburg, 2B	0-5	0	0	1
3A.Santander, RF	2-4	0	0	1
4C.Cowser, LF	1-5	1	1	1
5A.Rutschman, C	2-5	1	0	0
6R.O'Hearn, DH	1-3	1	1	2
6E.Rivera, PH	1-1	0	0	0
6J.Holliday, PR	0-1	1	0	0
6J.Holliday, DH	0-1	1	0	0
7R.Mountcastle, 1B	3-5	1	0	0
8C.Mullins, CF	1-3	1	0	0
9R.Urias, 3B	1-4	1	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	111	5.2	8	2
LC.Thielbar, P	15	1.1	0	1
LK.Funderburk, P	41	1	1	4
RM.Tonkin, P	18	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Margot, RF	1-4	0	0
2C.Correa, SS	0-3	1	0
3B.Buxton, CF	2-4	1	0
4C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	2
5R.Lewis, 3B	0-4	0	0
6K.Farmer, 2B	0-1	0	0
6B.Lee, PH	0-2	0	0
6B.Lee, 2B	0-2	0	0
7R.Jeffers, DH	0-4	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	0-2	0	0
9W.Castro, LF	0-3	0	0