Pirates vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - May 14, 2024

Pirates at Brewers

11:40 pm • SportsNet PT

Pittsburgh Pirates

0-0

3 - 4

Milwaukee Brewers

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Ross			3.77	3-6
Q.Priester			1.80	1-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 0-0	+1.5-155	o8.5-108	+135
Brewers 0-0	-1.5+130	u8.5-110	-161

Tuesday 11:40 p.m.

May 14, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

MIL -163

0.61u

Q.Priester u15.5 Outs+105

Priester is under in 2 of his 4 MLB starts games, with both overs against two offenses that were struggling at the time (OAK and SFG). The Brewers are raking right now: 112 wRC+ and a .745 OPS vs righties the L2 weeks, and 118 wRC+ and .762 vs righties at home all season. No Hoskins most likely, but that means they’ll get 5 lefties in the lineup, which is Presiter’s worse split. Brewers have hit GB pitchers well all season (Preister is 98th percentile in GB rate): .785 OPS, 127 sOPS+. And of course, the Brewers are one of the most patient teams: 3.95 pitches per PA (8TH), and the lowest swing%. Preister has struggles with walks the last two outings, and also has struggled the third time through the order (opps are 7/18 against him).

PIT +140

Fade on Joe Ross.

Q.Priester u3.5 Ks+115

Featured Insight
Pirates RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% vs right-handed batters this season -- second highest in MLB. Brewers right-handed hitters have struck out 27% against LHP this season -- fourth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Brewers have allowed just 3.1 runs per game over the last two weeks -- fifth lowest in MLB (13 games). The Pirates have scored just 2.9 runs per game over the last two weeks -- second lowest in MLB (12 games).

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The Brewers are 15-10 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 25-25 (.500) when they've scored in the first inning since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.

The Brewers are 40-42 (.488) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Pirates are just 71-16 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

34% of Jack Suwinski strikeouts are looking since last season -- tied for ninth highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. 37% of Hoby Milner strikeouts are looking since last season -- 12th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Brice Turang has a groundball rate of 55% this season -- 10th highest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% against Quinn Priester this season -- third highest among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

Joe Ross has walked 8 of 63 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 7% -- third Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (29/45) against Quinn Priester this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 43% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 13th	PIT	L 6-8	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -142
May 12th	STL	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 9	STL -155
May 11th	STL	W 5-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -185
May 11th	STL	W 11-2	-1.5 W	O 8.5	MIL -125
May 9th	STL	W 7-1	-	-	-

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Nestor Cortes
P
Cortes is out with elbow
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Ke'Bryan Hayes
IF
Hayes is out with back
Out
Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Endy Rodriguez
C
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RQ.Priester, P		93	6	5	4
RK.Nicolas, P		38	2	4	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.McCutchen, DH	0-4	0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3O.Cruz, SS	1-4	0	0	0
4C.Joe, 1B	1-3	2	1	1
5J.Suwinski, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6N.Gonzales, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
7Y.Grandal, C	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Triolo, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Ross, P	91	5	6	2
LB.Hudson, P	26	2	3	0
RE.Peguero, P	19	1	2	0
RT.Megill, P	24	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Turang, 2B	2-4	0	0	1
2W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	0	0
3C.Yelich, LF	2-4	0	0	1
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Bauers, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Ortiz, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
7S.Frelick, CF	1-3	1	1	2
8O.Dunn, DH	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Chourio, RF	1-3	1	0	0