Twins vs. Rangers Odds & Betting Predictions - August 18, 2024

🔬4-6 with 3 home runs vs Pablo 👀 🔬Hit in 4/L5 sunday home games while homering in 3 of those 4 covers 🔬Pablo’s four seam placement favors high middle strikezone and his second most used pitch the sweeper finds the inside low corner often (both spots that Seager crushes those pitches 🔬Globe life has the 5th highest projected home run total today per ball park pal

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Pablo López has been pretty good for the Twins, particularly across his last nine starts, during which he's yielded two or fewer earned runs seven times. Now, with that 27 percent strikeout rate going with a 1.15 WHIP, he has a pretty sound performance in keeping runners off the bases effectively. This becomes critical against a Rangers team that has been struggling to get runners home from scoring position lately as well. It must be added that López has been very consistent, so a respectful 3.93 FIP for his career does suggest he'll shut off a Texas offense that ranks just 19th in the league in runs per game and has shown a weakness to quality right-handed pitching. Tyler Mahle, on the other hand, has been less stable in his starts since coming back from Tommy John surgery. While his ERA of 2.79 through two starts may seem appealing, he has only pitched 9.2 innings, which could signal that he is still building up stamina. Moreover, a career ERA of 4.29 by Mahle and his WHIP of 1.307—at least somewhat higher than one would like—are symptoms of a trend to give up hits and walks to a high degree, something that could become devastating for a Twins lineup that has had success against right-handers as of late. The bullpens also favor Minnesota, as the Twins' bullpen has been more reliable with a save percentage of 70.8 percent and a solid WHIP of 1.17 that is top-ten in relief efficiency. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit at an ERA near six for the relief staff in the last 10 games. This may be one area where the bullpens become pivotal in their decisions late in the game, especially if Mahle is unable to go deep. Both clubs are stout in terms of defense, as each fielding percentage is inside the top 10 of MLB. But while Minnesota turns a very high rate of balls in play into outs—in fact, at 70.7 percent—along with their above-average ability to handle high-leverage situations, they give them the edge over their adversaries in this area. The bottom line is that, with López on the mound, a more reliable bullpen, and an offense that has a chance to take advantage of any weaknesses Mahle may show, the Twins position themselves in pretty good shape. Some bigger trends that are working against the Rangers, like hitting in RISP situations or bullpen ERA, really help to move the Twins for a money-line bet.

Flat to -108