The Atlanta Braves host the Boston Red Sox on May 17, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Braves are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +129 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Red Sox vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction
- Red Sox vs Braves Pick: Brayan Bello Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Our Red Sox vs Braves best bet is on Brayan Bello to record three or fewer strikeouts this afternoon. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Braves Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | +129 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +129 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -156 |
- Red Sox vs Braves moneyline: Red Sox +129, Braves -156
- Red Sox vs Braves over/under: 8.5 (-118o / -102u)
- Red Sox vs Braves spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-156), Braves -1.5 (+129)
Red Sox vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 2-1 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 6.46 / 6.28 | ERA / xERA | 4.35 / 4.41 |
| 5.58 / 4.32 | FIP / xFIP | 5.18 / 4.54 |
| 6.6 | K-BB% | 7.3 |
| 50.0 | GB% | 44.6 |
| .336 | BABIP | .226 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 101 | Location+ | 98 |
Red Sox vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Red Sox starter Brayan Bello for 2.9 strikeouts in today's matchup against the Braves, giving us an amazing 20.5% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 3.5, which is good enough to mark the under with an A+ grade in our system.
After a horrible start to the season, Bello has had two great outings in a row, pitching 13 and 1/3 innings and racking up 12 strikeouts combined.
However, it remains to be seen whether that was just a good run or a hint of the new path forward.
This afternoon, he will face a major threat. The Braves offense ranks second in the majors with a 115 wRC+ and leads all MLB teams against right-handed pitchers like Bello with 121.
Red Sox vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
There's a reason Bello still has a 6.46 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. Despite his recent recovery, he had five awful performances in his first six starts.
He has gone under this strikeout line (3.5) in four of his eight starts, all of them with just two Ks.
Staying in the game against this powerful Braves lineup will be the main challenge.
At plus money, let's fade him today against Atlanta.
Pick: Brayan Bello Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112, DraftKings)
