Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Zerillo’s Projection for Tuesday

Sean Zerillo

Senior Betting Analyst

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May 05, 2026, 12:22 PM EDT

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Zerillo’s Projection for Tuesday article feature image

2 min read

Credit:

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images. Pictured: Andre Pallante

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 5, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.

The Brewers are favored by -110 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are -110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.

Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.

Editor's Note: This written article is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction

Brewers vs Cardinals Pick: Under 7.5

My Brewers vs Cardinals best bet is on the run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Brewers vs Cardinals Odds

May 5, 2026

7:45 p.m. EDT

BREW

Brewers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -183	7.5 -116o / -104u	-110

Cardinals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 +159	7.5 -116o / -104u	-110

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Brewers vs Cardinals moneyline: Brewers -110, Cardinals -110
Brewers vs Cardinals over/under: 7.5 (-116o / -104u)
Brewers vs Cardinals spread: Brewers -1.5 (+159), Cardinals +1.5 (-183)

Brewers vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers

RHP Brandon Sproat (MIL)	Stat	RHP Andre Pallant (STL)
0-2	W-L	3-2
-0.3	fWAR (FanGraphs)	0.1
6.75/5.28	ERA / xERA	3.73/4.41
6.37/4.77	FIP / xFIP	4.67/4.60
8.7%	K-BB%	8.7%
37.0%	GB%	50.0%
.309	BABIP	.250
100	Stuff+	94
96	Location+	95

Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview, Pick

This matchup between the Brewers and the Cardinals is oriented towards the under.

It's going to be 52°F at Busch Stadium, with the wind blowing in. They will also have an under-friendly umpire in Mike Muchlinski, who lowers my run-scoring environment by about 2%.

Brandon Sprout has given up a very high home run rate this year. Allowing more than two homers per nine innings is probably not sustainable, so that is going to regress closer to 1.5 or 1.

Andre Pallante's sky-high ground ball rate negates a lot of the negative impact of his other underlying indicators, which are all closer to the high fours or low fives on two.

We have two relatively well-rested bullpens here. They were much more fatigued, in my opinion, going into yesterday's game, so I like the under today. I make this 7.1. I would bet under 7.5 at -108.

Pick: Under 7.5

Brewers vs Cardinals Weather

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About the Author

Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.

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