The New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds on May 25, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets are favored by -162 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +136 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Reds vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Mets Prediction
- Reds vs Mets Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
Our Reds vs Mets best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Mets Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +136 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -162 |
- Reds vs Mets moneyline: Reds +136, Mets -162
- Reds vs Mets over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Reds vs Mets spread: Mets -1.5 (+138 ), Reds +1.5 (-166)
Reds vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) | Stat | RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-3 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 7.20/7.41 | ERA / xERA | 3.57/2.91 |
| 7.48/5.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.19/2.96 |
| 3.0% | K-BB% | 22.2% |
| 36.4% | GB% | 44.1% |
| .250 | BABIP | .270 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 87 | Location+ | 102 |
Reds vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
As the calendar turns to late May, the Cincinnati Reds travel to Citi Field for a three-game set against the New York Mets.
The Reds enter the series with a 27-25 record, sitting fourth in a competitive NL Central, while the Mets are looking to find their footing at 22-31, currently fifth in the NL East.
New York has struggled with consistency, particularly when giving up the long ball, holding a 10-18 record in games where opponents go deep.
Conversely, Cincinnati has been steady on the road with a .500 record and features a lineup that ranks 10th in the majors with a .392 slugging percentage.
The pitching matchup features two arms looking to stabilize their seasons. Nick Lodolo takes the mound for Cincinnati with an inflated 7.20 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.
Despite the high run average, he has shown flashes of missing bats, but he will need to limit base runners against a Mets lineup that remains dangerous despite their record.
For New York, Nolan McLean (2-3, 3.57 ERA) looks to rebound after a tough outing where he surrendered six earned runs in less than six innings.
Before that stumble, McLean had been a bright spot for the rotation, utilizing a 1.03 WHIP to keep traffic off the bases.
Offensively, the spotlight remains on Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz, who is currently hitting .288 with 12 home runs and 35 RBIs.
De La Cruz is on the verge of a historic milestone, sitting just two steals shy of 150 for his career in under 500 games.
The Mets will counter with rookie standout Carson Benge, who has already tallied 17 RBIs this season.
A significant storyline to watch is the status of Juan Soto; the superstar was a late scratch on Sunday due to a fever and remains day-to-day.
His absence would significantly dampen the Mets' power potential, as he has been on a tear with six home runs in his last 10 games.
Reds vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
The smart play for this Monday afternoon matchup is to take the Under 7.5 runs. This recommendation leans heavily on the "Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds" system developed by Evan Abrams.
This specific betting system targets regular-season games where "softer" home starters—those who rely more on pitch-to-contact strategies rather than elite strikeout velocity—face off in the latter half of a series.
In this scenario, hitters have often seen the bullpen's primary arms and have a clear scouting report, yet the lack of overpowering velocity from the starter often leads to a slower, more deliberate pace that keeps scoring muted.
Furthermore, the system filters for neutral wind conditions, ensuring that the environment at Citi Field doesn't artificially inflate offensive production.
With both teams navigating the mid-season grind and the Mets potentially missing the middle-of-the-order thump of Juan Soto, the conditions are ripe for a quiet afternoon on the scoreboard.
While the market often anticipates offensive surges in these matchups, the historical trend favors a low-scoring outcome when velocity is down and the atmosphere remains calm.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
