The Arizona Diamondbacks (61-66) host the Cleveland Guardians (64-61) on August 20, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Diamondbacks prediction below with odds, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Guardians vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Guardians vs Diamondbacks pick: Over 9
Our Guardians vs Diamondbacks prediction is on the over 9 total runs, with the best odds currently on Fanatics. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 9 -108o / -112u | +104 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +157 | 9 -108o / -112u | -126 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Parker Messick (CLE – Season debut) | Stat | RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| — | W-L | 12-8 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| — | ERA /xERA | 5.08/5.88 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 4.45/4.11 |
| — | WHIP | 1.36 |
| — | K-BB% | 13.4% |
| — | GB% | 42.5% |
| — | Stuff+ | 97 |
| — | Location+ | 103 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick
The Arizona Diamondbacks are -126 favorites on the moneyline for Wednesday’s rubber match against the Cleveland Guardians, who check in as +104 underdogs. The total is set at 9 runs after Cleveland took Game 1 by a 3-1 score and Arizona responded with a 6-5 win in Game 2.
Cleveland will hand the ball to lefty Parker Messick, who is making his MLB debut. The Guardians’ No. 12 prospect logged a 3.47 ERA across 20 Triple-A starts this season.
Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, who has been excellent in home day games the past two years (6-1, 2.56 ERA in 11 starts). Still, Cleveland has shown some life at the plate in this series, and Pfaadt has occasionally been prone to giving up the long ball.
The betting angle here comes from Evan Abrams’ “Late Season Overs, Lower Totals” system. Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments like Arizona tend to go over when totals close at 10.5 or below.
Dry desert air in August, bullpen volatility from expanded rosters, and public perception around playoff pressure can all suppress the line — but overs historically cash at Chase Field in this spot.
With a rookie debuting for Cleveland, a volatile bullpen on both sides, and a modest total of 9 runs, this matchup fits the system well.
Pick: Over 9 (-110, Fanatics)
