We have a full 15-game slate today, starting with Brewers vs Cardinals at Busch Stadium at 2:15 PM ET and closing with Diamondbacks vs Padres at 9:40 PM ET at PetCo Park.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Tuesday, July 7.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for any matchup below to navigate to the specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:15 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ryan Minion's Brewers vs Cardinals Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
Misiorowski has been nothing short of phenomenal to kick off his sophomore campaign pitching in the Major Leagues.
The 6-foot-7 strikeout king was an extremely highly touted prospect, drawing comparisons to Hall of Famer Randy Johnson given the two’s lanky builds and overpowering velocity on the mound, with Milwaukee's youngster consistently clocking a 104-MPH four-seam fastball.
In 17 starts on the mound for the Brew Crew in 2026, Jacob has recorded an exceptional 1.47 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP – both of which rank first among starting pitchers in all of baseball.
Misiorowski’s punch-out prowess is shocking, with the righty having fanned an MLB-leading 156 hitters (Ks) over his 104 frames on the mound thus far.
The Cardinals should start Hunter Dobbins for the doubleheader, though it's still unclear.
Dobbins has looked decent across 17 innings this season, but Misiorowski is on another level right now compared to any other starting pitcher in baseball.
In addition to the utter dominance of their phenom ace, the Brewers have one of the best records in MLB, with a lineup surging since the return of their premier slugger, outfielder Jackson Chourio.
Pick: Brewers ML (-200 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Braves vs Pirates Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Pittsburgh’s PNC Park boosts run scoring by 2% in Statcast’s three-year rolling park factors. While it slightly suppresses left-handed home runs by 4%, the park absolutely crushes right-handed power (28%). That helps you understand why Pittsburgh endeavored to add LHBs this offseason.
The current forecast suggests the game will start just above 80 degrees and dip into the 70s, with little wind impact. There is some chance of rain, and depending on your forecast of choice, weather impact could be anywhere from nothing to a 5% boost to run scoring.
We do not yet know who the umpires will be for the first game of this series.
I rate Paul Skenes more than a run ahead of Hurston Waldrep. Close to a run and a third, to be more precise, with Skenes just a bit above three.
Where I differ most with BARTOLO is offensively. I believe in what the Pirates have done with a more than half-season sample size and have them well ahead of an Atlanta lineup still missing Acuna.
The Braves have a moderate defensive edge (16 FRV by projected lineups).
The Braves have the better bullpen whether you’re following last 30-day estimators or BARTOLO rankings. However, Raisel Iglesias just blew the save, and the game is now in extra innings in Atlanta, which could affect reliever availabilities on Tuesday, not to mention a later flight to Pittsburgh.
I thought I would be on the home favorite here, but the Pirates are getting just about the amount of respect I project they should. They’re fairly heavy favorites.
I do have this game a bit higher-scoring than the current total.
Pick: Over 8 (-120 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Guardians vs Twins Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO systems:
The Silent Sharp Unders system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close.
These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under, likely due to matchup specifics, pitching, or pace factors.
By following this soft signal—when the public eye is more focused on win streaks rather than net totals—this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Diamondbacks vs Padres Best Bet
This is Sean Zerillo’s largest projected edge on today’s slate, as you can see via our new PRO baseball betting tool, BARTOLO.
I think a large part of the projected edge comes from the umpire. Lance Barksdale is one of the most hitter-friendly umpires in the sport. Derek Carty’s THE BAT X rates him as the fifth-most hitter-friendly umpire in MLB (4.14 ERA), and Zerillo has adjusted his projection up a full 4% for Barksdale alone.
But regardless of umpire, it’s not hard to bet an Over in a pitching matchup between Zac Gallen and German Marquez.
Marquez’s rolling CSW rate is now under 20%, and his rolling xFIP has jumped to over seven as a result.
The hope that going from Coors to PetCo would revive German seems to be a lost cause now. He can’t miss bats, so he tries to nibble the zone, which results in walks. When he does throw stuff in the zone, he allows loads of hard contact because his stuff is horrific — he has one above-average pitch in his arsenal per Stuff+, the knuckle-curve, which is running a career-low, MLB-average 100 Stuff+ rating.
Marquez has also struggled to get lefties out this year (.415 wOBA allowed, -1.2% K-BB rate). Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo are switch-hitters who will bat from the south side in this matchup, creating a left-handed trio atop the order with Corbin Carroll — that really sucks for German.
I also just really like this Snakes offense. The lineup has elite talent at the top but depth all the way down. They are patient but have pop.
Unfortunately for them, Zac Gallen is a shell of his former self.
He’s allowed 55 earned runs over his past 63 innings. He’s posting career-low rates in stuff, swing-and-miss, strikeout, and all his batted-ball numbers have cratered. Hitters are smashing his fastballs in the zone and not chasing his curveball out of the zone (or really any of his secondary stuff).
Unless there’s a drastic change in his style and arsenal soon, things will likely stay ugly.
I’m worried about this Over because I like both these bullpens, I like both these defenses, and PetCo is typically a pitcher’s park.
However, Adrian Morejon is likely out for the Padres today after throwing 62 pitches over the past three days, and San Diego’s defense doesn’t project well via BARTOLO. Also, San Diego’s lineup has serious pop.
I feel like this has blowup potential for one or both starters written all over it, and I think a juiced 8.5 is a good price — this number should be at least nine.
If you want to target the early game or innings — like a YRFI or F5 Over — I don’t hate that either. This feels like much of the scoring will come against the starters at the top of the lineup, especially for Arizona against Marquez.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 or Better)
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