On Sunday, we have our usual 15-game slate, starting with Brewers vs. Pirates at 12:15 PM ET and closing with Blue Jays vs Padres and Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, both at 4:10 PM ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for today.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today for Sunday, July 12.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:15 PM | |
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
Jacob Misiorowski has been scratched in the Brewers lineups and Robert Gasser will start in his place.
The Pirates counter with right-hander Paul Skenes. Like Misiorowski, Skenes burst onto the scene with high expectations and did not disappoint.
The right-hander won NL Rookie of the Year in 2024 and the NL Cy Young Award the following season. That success has carried into this year against anyone not named the Philadelphia Phillies.
Outside of two poor outings against Philadelphia, Skenes has continued to dominate in 2026. This season, the former first overall pick owns a 2.74 xERA and a .204 xBA.
He also ranks in the top quarter of the league in strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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Sean Paul's Phillies vs Tigers Moneyline pick
By Sean Paul
Zack Wheeler might not be an All-Star, but I do not doubt that he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 36-year-old owns a 2.28 ERA with a strong 2.70 xERA and 3.11 FIP.
His Stuff is a bit down from last year, posting a 104 Stuff+ compared to 111 last year, but he still generates a ton of chase (94th percentile) and strikeouts (10.14 K/9).
Although pitcher wins are an archaic stat, Wheeler is 9-1, and the Phillies are 12-2 in his 14 outings. That's a super impressive mark and displays Wheeler's dominance.
Nobody matches up well with Tarik Skubal, but the Phillies match up particularly poorly. They have a left-handed heavy lineup, leading to them ranking 25th in MLB with an 85 wRC+ against southpaws.
Detroit fans should cherish every Skubal start because there may not be many more for him in the Motor City.
In five starts since returning from an injury, Skubal has a 3.57 ERA with a 3.00 xERA and a 4.56 FIP. The home run bug has bitten Skubal upon his return, allowing eight home runs in his five outings, compared to two homers in his first seven starts.
Offensively, the Tigers have been on fire of late (since June 20th), ranking 11th in MLB with a 109 wRC+. They have 30 homers in that span, ranking fifth in the league.
When looking at the lines here, I considered a few different things. With the Phillies' inability to hit lefties, I want no part of them on the ML. What I looked at were ways to back Skubal and the Tigers. The total is just 7.5 runs, which is super light, even in a pitching duel between two aces.
I don't feel comfortable taking that. But I will take Detroit ML at -112 to -135. You'll rarely get a chance to back a pitcher of Skubal's caliber at home at such a low price.
Pick: Tigers ML (-112)
Read Paul's full Phillies-Tigers breakdown here:
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Mariners vs Rays K Prop
By Action Network Staff
The top betting angle for this final game before the break centers on the strikeout prop for Tampa Bay starter Ian Seymour.
While the sportsbooks have locked his strikeout line at Over/Under 5.5 with odds sitting around -136, the projection models suggest there is tremendous value on the over.
Action PRO actually projects Seymour to finish with 6.70 strikeouts against Seattle this afternoon. That numbers-based projection gives bettors an excellent 8.3% mathematical edge over the standard market line.
The Mariners have been highly prone to punching out, making this matchup ideal for an ascending young pitcher who relies on his ability to miss bats.
Furthermore, Seymour's recent form strongly backs up this projection. The left-handed starter has been absolutely electric over his last few turns in the rotation.
He is coming off a massive 12-strikeout masterpiece against the New York Yankees on July 7, which was preceded by consecutive, highly efficient outings of 8 and 7 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals.
Given his current momentum and Seattle's swing-and-miss tendencies, hitting at least six strikeouts looks like the smartest play on the board.
Pick: Ian Seymour Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)
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Ryan Minion's Athletics vs White Sox Prop Pick
By Ryan Minion
The White Sox will host the Athletics on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Rate Field in Chicago. JT Ginn will take the mound for the A’s, while Noah Schultz will start for Chicago.
And Schultz enters this matchup in atrocious form. He’s running a 6.00 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 10 starts this season.
Schultz throws a lot of fastballs, including sinkers, four-seamers, and cutters. He throws the sinker the most (25% usage), but it’s been his least effective pitch (7% whiff rate, 5% strikeout rate, .425 xwOBA allowed).
His main secondary offering is a wipeout sweeper that can miss bats (32% whiff), but can also get hit hard (.467 xwOBA allowed).
I think Shea Langeliers matches up really well with Schultz’s arsenal, given his massive pull-side power, making him a big home-run threat against left-handed pitching (177 wRC+ against lefties this season with eight home runs and five doubles across 100 at-bats).
Pick: Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-135)
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Doug Ziefel's Blue Jays vs Padres Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
Kevin Gausman is the clear A-side of this pitching matchup, but he's been stumbling into the All-Star break, and this talented San Diego lineup has begun to find its groove a bit against righties.
Starting with Gausman, he has a 6.49 ERA over his last five starts. There has not been a drop-off in his ability to generate strikeouts, but his CSW has dipped five percent, and his walks are way up in that span.
Command issues have led to an increase in loud contact, which has led to damage on the scoreboard.
As for the Padres, they are not the formidable high-contact lineup we've known the past few seasons. They've shown a bevy of holes this season, and the drop-off in contact rate is astonishing given that many of the same bats made this team the toughest to strike out in the National League the past two years.
While they have not been consistent, this team still has the discipline and pop to make Gausman work in the zone and capitalize on any mistakes.
Fade Gausman here, as he looks like a veteran in much need of a break.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-119)
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