We have a shorter nine-game slate on Thursday, including Royals vs Rays at 12:10 PM ET at Tropicana Field, Athletics vs Giants at 3:45 PM ET at Oracle Park, Astros vs Tigers at 6:40 PM ET at Comerica Park, and Cubs vs Mets at 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday, June 25.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:10 PM | |
  | 3:45 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Royals vs Rays Best Bet
In today's player prop markets, the top value points to Tampa Bay Rays infielder Jonathan Aranda.
Action PRO projects Aranda to secure 0.90 singles this afternoon, which provides an 8.5% betting edge over his currently posted line of 0.5 singles. This considerable discrepancy gives the over an A-grade rating that stands out significantly on the board.
Aranda's recent form further cements the strength of this wager. The Mexican infielder has been swinging an incredibly hot bat, successfully clearing this exact prop in each of his last 5 games and in 8 of his final 10 outings overall.
This translates to a highly reliable 80% hit rate in this specific market, making the over on Aranda recording a single one of the strongest plays available for this series finale.
Pick: Jonathan Aranda Single (-120 Or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Athletics vs Giants Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Jeffrey Springs should be able to skirt some of the damage he’d normally incur in Sacramento in a move to San Francisco on Thursday afternoon, but the underlying metrics still tell a disappointing story, even if they’re an improvement on his 5.55 ERA.
The obvious issue is a 17.8 HR/FB rate, resulting in a 5.72 FIP. Springs has already allowed a stunning 21 home runs on 26 barrels, but the lack of ground balls (34.1%) has resulted in 10.1% Barrels/BBE even with just a 35.8 HardHit%.
Only striking out 20.1% of batters faced means a lot of barrels, and that number drops to 15.9% on the road, though in just six starts away from Sacramento.
Even with a normal rate of barrels leaving the park, Springs produces a 4.52 xERA that’s very much smack in the middle of his remaining non-FIP indicator range (4.32 Bot ERA/98 Pitching+ – 4.76 dERA).
It gets even worse over his last six starts, where Springs has allowed 13 home runs on 12 barrels (13%). Maybe you can blame the Wrigley winds for one of those starts, but his other road start during this stretch was in San Diego.
He has an 8.26 FIP and .381 xwOBA allowed over the last 30 days.
In comparison, Landon Roupp has been significantly better with every one of his estimators below his 4.15 ERA (65.7 LOB%).
Roupp has allowed exactly four runs in four of his last nine starts and also eight in Milwaukee, but we learned after that start that he had some back issues, and he still has a solid 16.4 K-BB% during this span, even though he walked five Brewers and struck out just four.
That matches his season 16.6 K-BB%, which, when combined with his elite 29.9 HardHit%, results in a 3.29 xERA that isn’t too far below his 3.37 xFIP.
The 3.7% Barrels/BBE are probably not sustainable, but Roupp has been too far under the radar this year. He’s having a good season.
The A’s also lose quite a bit of offense once they leave Sacramento (87 wRC+ on the road), while their projected lineup’s 117 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 111 wRC+ against RHIP this year are a bit lower than San Francisco’s 138 over the last month and 112 against southpaws.
Both defenses are below average, with the A’s being worse. Projected lineups would give the Giants a small 7 FRV (Fielding Run Value edge).
The San Francisco bullpen is a mess that I want no part of. Its inclusion puts me in line with the market on the full game price (-130), but I project the Giants to have every edge in the first half and make them substantially larger favorites than FanDuel’s current price of -124.
Pick: Giants F5 ML (-140 or Better)
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Frank Ammirante's Astros vs Tigers Best Bet
I'm riding with Over 8.5 in the Astros vs Tigers game.
For one, Tatsuya Imai has been extremely volatile this season. While he struck out 11 vs. the Guardians, his prior outing included five earned runs in 0.2 innings.
This pitcher has a 13.3% walk rate, which is among the worst in MLB. That kind of poor command leads to more base-runners, which bodes well for the Over.
On the other side, Troy Melton is a pitcher who has overperformed his underlying metrics, as his 4.84 SIERA is much higher than his 2.56 ERA. Melton hasn't been able to miss bats so far, as highlighted by an abysmal 15.2% strikeout rate. His good luck so far has been driven by an unsustainable .169 BABIP.
Then we have to acknowledge the weather, with forecasts calling for 11 MPH winds blowing out to left field at Comerica Park, per Action App.
With that in mind, the over looks like a strong play here.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Cubs vs Mets Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Cubs ML.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, I recommend checking out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool that gives you access to all the input data I use to project games every day.
Below is a sneak peek, and check out today's edition of Opening Pitch for more.
Pick: Cubs ML (-120 or Better)
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