We have a full 15-game slate on Friday, including Yankees vs Red Sox at 7:10 PM ET at Fenway Park on MLB.TV.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Friday, June 26.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jon Anderson's Yankees vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
I think both pitchers are in matchups that suit them well.
While Will Warren struggles with lefties, the Red Sox don't have many imposing left-handed bats.
Payton Tolle comes right at guys and hopes to rack up in-zone whiffs. Meanwhile, the Yankees do a lot of in-zone whiffing, and their power is less of a problem against left-handed pitchers.
I ran my projections through the sim tool at MLB Data Warehouse, and this game averages about 7.9-8.1 runs per game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Royals vs White Sox Best Bet
With the over/under line set at 8.5 runs, the smartest play on the board is to target the under, heavily supported by Evan Abrams’ "Public Fades Humidity = Unders" betting system.
While casual public bettors often mistakenly assume that high humidity automatically boosts offensive production and leads to high-scoring games, historical data reveal that specific weather thresholds actually suppress scoring.
This matchup fits the system perfectly, featuring an elevated humidity level ranging between 45 and 95, combined with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns that keep the ball from flying out of the park.
Furthermore, the betting market and recent trends strongly align with this under-the-radar angle. The home team has lacked offensive rhythm lately, keeping its five-game over rate below 40%.
Sharp bookmakers have already reacted to these conditions, causing the total line to drop from its opening number to the current closing line.
This massive misalignment between public perception and actual environmental scoring trends makes Under 8.5 the definitive choice for Friday night's divisional clash.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Rockies vs Twins Pick
By Derek Carty
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
Taj Bradley is a guy that my Stuff model likes a lot more than it did last year. He has better strikeout stuff than he had previously.
Meanwhile, he’s facing a Rockies offense that tends to strike out a lot, especially away from Coors Field (the altitude suppresses strikeouts).
Bradley is projected to face seven left-handed hitters today, but he’s a reverse-splits guy, so that’s not a bad thing for him.
He’s also playing with a team that’s really good at working the ABS system, which will help him.
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Pick: Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Athletics vs Angels Pick
By Sean Zerillo
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
My model keeps trying to fade Walbert Urena. I’m not sure if I’m missing something regarding his effectiveness, but he doesn’t necessarily project better than a league-average starting pitcher — I rate him as my SP No. 99 with a 4.20 weighted FIP projection.
I rate JT Ginn a bit worse than Urena, but I strongly prefer the A’s offense, and I slightly prefer their bullpen.
Pick: A's ML (-135 or Better)
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