It's Friday, so we're going to get a little weird.
Our baseball best bets column today features your standard projections from Zerillo (Rays vs. Yankees), plus a moneyline best bet from Ryan Minion (Astros vs. Mariners).
However, I've also included Jon Anderson's unique SGP look on the afternoon game, plus a Triple-A best bet from Action Network's Minor League guru, Adam Trigger.
Read on for our MLB picks, predictions, and 4 best bets for Friday, April 10.
MLB Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:20 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
 | 6:35 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pirates vs. Cubs Parlay Picks
By Jon Anderson
The books aren't giving us a friendly line. They have woken up to the under home runs bet after this start to the year. I believe some people have even posted about no longer being able to parlay a bunch of "no home runs" bets together.
Under 1.5 home runs feels very likely to hit. On DraftKings, it's -185.
But we can drain the juice by also working the angle that Shota Imanaga is a much better pitcher than Carmen Mlodzinski, in terms of skill and volume.
I'm tagging on Imanaga head-to-head Strikeouts Winner (-346) against Mlodzinski to create a -105 same-game parlay.
He's the better pitcher in the better matchup and is very likely to throw an inning or two more than Mlodzinski.
Read Anderson's full Pirates-Cubs preview here:
Pick: Under 1.5 Home Runs + Shota Imanaga H2H Strikeout Winner (-105 SGP)
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Yankees vs. Rays Moneyline & Over/Under Picks
By Sean Zerillo
Historically, the Tampa Bay Rays are among the most profitable home underdogs in our database, generating a 7.4% ROI since 2005 (230-243), surpassed only by the St. Louis Cardinals (+9.1%) in ROI, and the Colorado Rockies (+$3,873 for a consistent $100 bettor) in net profit.
More importantly, all of their production relative to market has come as home underdogs in divisional games (132-126, +14.4% ROI), rather than non-divisional contests (98-117, -1.0% ROI).
The Rays are just 10-21 over that span against the Baltimore Orioles (-30.6% ROI) but have cleaned up against the Boston Red Sox (41-35, +22.2% ROI), New York Yankees (46-45, +17.2% ROI), and Toronto Blue Jays (35-25, +23.7% ROI). Being the least heralded team in a division of big-name clubs with giant payrolls has led to value on Tampa Bay at the Trop more often than not, but particularly at home against AL East rivals.
The Rays have almost become an automatic click for me in these spots, and they have a projected starting pitching advantage with Steven Matz facing former AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.
Gil's velocity (95.3 mph, down from 96.3 mph career), stuff (98 Stuff+, down from 106 in 2024), and underlying indicators (4.94 xERA, 5.65 xFIP, 3.3% K-BB%) were worrying last season after suffering a lat strain. He didn't make the Yankees rotation this spring, and struggled in his long Triple-A appearance (4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 6 K) before getting recalled.
Gil's projections (FIP range from 4.49 to 4.89; K-BB% range from 8.9% to 12.9%) aren't in the neighborhood of his 2024 results (3.76 xERA, 4.36 xFIP, 14.8% K-BB%) – they are far more reflective of his injury-marred 2025 campaign. But there's also nothing to suggest that he's suddenly recovered and put that injury behind him, either.
I'd also expect the Rays to put a ton of pressure on Gil on the basepaths (permitted 8 of 11 steal attempts for his career), which could lead to additional walks from a pitcher with shaky command (career 12.1% walk rate).
Steven Matz was a rare Rays' multi-year signing, following an effective couple of seasons in relief (3.38 xERA, 3.71 xFIP, 15.5% K-BB% in 2025). His stuff (down from 104 to 93; velocity down from 94.5 to 92.5) won't hold up as well in the rotation as it did in the bullpen, but Matz still projects as the more reliable arm in the starting pitching matchup (projected FIP range 3.73 to 4.38; K-BB% range from 12.9% to 15.5%).
Check out all of Zerillo's MLB bets for Friday here:
Pick: Rays ML (+120 or Better) | Over 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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Mariners vs Astros Moneyline Picks
By Ryan Minion
Though the Astros’ Tatsuya Imai was a highly-touted prospect from the NPB league in Japan, the righty has had a rough start to his MLB career, posting a 4.30 ERA with a WHIP north of 1.50 across his first two outings.
On the surface, Houston’s rookie dominated back in Japan (1.80 ERA in 2025), but he has serious command issues, posting the highest walk rate among NPB pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched between 2019 and 2021.
The NPB also uses different baseballs than those used in MLB, which has caused severe degradation in his fastball shape — it’s become relatively flat, which is super vulnerable to hard contact.
In the other dugout, Emerson Hancock has looked great in his first few 2026 starts. He’s got an elite arsenal, and he’s starting to lean more into his sinker and sweeper this season.
Hancock boasts an incredibly low arm angle, resulting in more movement on his breaking pitches. Plus, his 95 MPH fastball-sinker combination has generated a unique combination of whiffs and weak contact.
I feel great backing the Mariners at home with a clear pitching edge. It’s also worth mentioning that the Astros are on the back end of a long road trip.
For an SGP on this game, check out Minion's full Astros-Mariners breakdown here:
Pick: Mariners ML (-140 or Better)
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Tigger's Triple-A Best Bet
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp vs. Norfolk Tides
Friday, 6:35 PM ET
By Adam Trigger
We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge.
Regarding the Jumbo Shrimp, betting on Jacksonville couldn’t be going any better. The Shrimp are 3-0 this week, with every moneyline landing in the -105 to -120 range.
Jacksonville is loaded. The Shrimp also just got a huge boost after Devysian De Los Santos was sent back down to Jacksonville. Throw Santos in front of Joe Mack and Kemp Alderman, and you’ve got an elite heart of the order with unlimited upside.
The Marlins system is also loaded with pitching. Since bringing back Peter Bendiz and overhauling the player development staff, Miami has been elite at fixing and developing pitchers.
The Shrimp have one of the best high-leverage relievers in the Minors in William Kempner. They also get star pitching prospect Robby Snelling starting Friday’s matchup against Norfolk — he’s Jacksonville’s best pitcher by a wide margin.
The injuries are starting to pile up for Baltimore, so the Orioles have already begun to raid a thin Tides roster early in the season. Jackson Holliday is still rehabbing in Triple-A, but he’s slumping with a .584 OPS to begin the season. New acquisition Jhonkensy Noel is also off to a slow start, hitting .185 to start the year.
Check out all of Trigger's Triple-A plays for Friday and the weekend ahead here:
Pick: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-130 or Better)
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