I fired up my MLB strikeout projections for Tuesday, and I've found some value involving three starting pitchers in three games.
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Read on for my MLB Player Props and Strikeout Picks for Tuesday, March 31.
MLB Player Props: Sean Koerner's Strikeout Picks
White Sox vs Marlins Prop Picks
Janson Junk has posted just a 17.5% strikeout rate over the past five seasons, and nothing about his Spring Training this season suggests any improvements are coming — his Whiff rate was even lower than expected, and he topped out at just 50 pitches.
Normally, Junk doesn’t pitch deep into games, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he only hit around 75 pitches in this start.
This is a great matchup against the White Sox, who boast the second-highest strikeout rate among MLB lineups so far. However, I project Tuesday’s expected lineup to be much closer to the league-average strikeout rate, and it should be much lower against Junk.
The White Sox have been aggressive early in counts, ranking second among MLB lineups in first-pitch swing rate (40%). That’s a good approach against Junk, who loves getting ahead in the count early.
Junk also sees his strikeout rate plummet the second time through the order, even more than typical starting pitchers.
I project Under 3.5 strikeouts closer to -115.
Pick: Janson Junk Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+134, DraftKings)
Giants vs Padres MLB Player Props
German Marquez hasn’t been a high-strikeout guy over the past few years, hovering around a 15% rate.
But going from Coors Field to PetCo Park should be a huge boost — last season, his strikeout rate was 4% higher on the road compared to at home.
Marquez also changed his approach in Spring Training, and it resulted in a 31% strikeout rate. It looks like he’ll be leaning more on his knuckle-curve and less on his sinker, and the former generated a 37% Whiff rate last season.
This is a tough test against the Giants, as Luis Arraez and Jung Hoo Lee are essentially impossible to strike out. But the other seven hitters are gettable, and this line is low.
I project Over 3.5 strikeouts closer to -120.
Pick: German Marquez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+112, DraftKings)
Diamondbacks vs Tigers Picks
We can’t overreact to Spring Training, but that’s all we have so far.
Casey Mize’s strikeout rate was just 16% during the preseason, which is not good. He lost a few ticks on his fastball, and he really fell off around the fourth inning in his past two starts.
This is also a brutal opening draw for him. I project the Diamondbacks lineup as the toughest to strike out of any team playing on Tuesday.
Additionally, Chase Field is always tougher to get strikeouts at, with its high elevation and great batter’s eye.
I project Under 4.5 closer to -200.
Pick: Casey Mize Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-152, FanDuel)
