Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, August 11.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Nationals vs. Royals and Pirates vs. Brewers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, August 11
Nationals vs. Royals
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 100o / -120u | +125 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 100o / -120u | -155 |
RHP Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (KCR)
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli had an impressive 2025 debut, generating 19 whiffs behind elite stuff (115 Stuff+), four plus offerings (107 fastball, 123 curveball, 125 sinker, 116 changeup), and an electric fastball (97.3 MPH on average but can touch triple digits).
The 22nd overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft missed most of the 2023 and 2024 seasons after Tommy John surgery, but he has first-round pedigree and was on preseason ROY watchlists back in 2023.
Cavalli is likely already a better starting pitcher than Royals starter Bailey Falter (4.81 xERA, 4.40 botERA, 96 Stuff+). However, it’s worth mentioning that the Nationals are struggling mightily against southpaws over the past month (57 wRC+).
Additionally, the Royals are shorthanded in the bullpen, as Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg and Angel Zerpa have all worked on consecutive days.
I project the Nationals ML at +114.
Pick: Nationals ML (+130 | Play to +123)
Pirates vs. Brewers
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8 -115o / -105u | -220 |
LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (MIL)
These two starting pitchers have very similar underlying indicators and projections.
| Pitcher | xERA / xFIP | K-BB% | Pitching+ / botERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | 5.41 / 4.79 | 9.0% | 94 / 3.87 |
| Jose Quintana | 4.78 / 4.62 | 7.8% | 92 / 5.03 |
The difference is that the Pirates are in their better offensive split against a left-handed pitcher (103 wRC+ against the side over the past month). Additionally, the Pirates are underrated on defense (top-six in DRS and OAA) and in the bullpen (top-five in xFIP and K-BB% over the past month).
The Brewers enter Monday on a nine-game winning streak, which has included multiple come-from-behind wins. Logic dictates their moneylines will be intentionally overjuiced until they lose, particularly against a bottom-feeder like the Pirates.
The Pirates also fit a trio of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, including Betting Against The Public.
Pick: Pirates ML (+180 | Play to +165)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 11
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Nationals ML (+130 | Play to +123)
- Pirates ML (+180 | Play to +165)
- Rockies ML (+195 | Play to +175)
- Phillies vs. Reds Under 9 (-105 | Play to -110)
- Twins vs. Yankees Under 9 (-106 | Play to -115)
