Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, April 1.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Athletics-Braves, Nationals-Phillies, Red Sox-Astros, and Guardians-Dodgers.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks for Wednesday, April 1
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (-220, 0.33u), FanDuel, bet to -250
- Atlanta Braves (-200, 0.33u), ScoreBet, bet to -235
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-156, 0.33u), FanDuel, bet to -165
- Boston Red Sox (-137, 0.33u), BallyBet, bet to -150
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-250, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -285
- Mariners/Yankees, Under 7.5 (-122, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 7 (-105)
- Nationals/Phillies, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 8 (+100)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-235, 0.33u), BetMGM, bet to -275
- Philadelphia Phillies (-245, 0.33u), Polymarket, bet to -260
- Tigers/Diamondbacks, Under 8 (-120, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 7.5 (-105)
Athletics-Braves Picks
While I have lost both bets that I placed on the first two games of this series (Athletics F5 moneyline in Game 1, and Braves moneyline in Game 2), the odds ticked my direction in both instances (from +115 to +100 on A's F5 and -133 to -154 on the Braves).
And the analysis (which holds for this wager, too) remains the same: the platoon lineups for both teams carry a projected average of a 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a 108 mark against lefties, putting the Braves in their superior split, and leaving the A's in their lesser split for the first half of this contest.
Drake Baldwin (projected 124 wRC+ vs. righties, 103 vs. lefties), Matt Olson (136 vs. 110), and Michael Harris (119 vs. 94) should take advantage of the matchup with Luis Severino (career K-BB% four percent lower against lefties than righties). In contrast, Nick Kurtz (projected 113 vs. lefties, 151 vs. righties) and Tyler Soderstrom (97 vs. 124) will fight through their lesser split. At the same time, Lawrence Butler (81 vs. 110), and Jeff McNeil (89 vs. 110) could get platooned for some combination of Darrell Hernaiz (100 vs. lefties), Andy Ibanez (93) and backup catcher Austin Wynns (84).
Chris Sale (career 2.49 xFIP, 27% K-BB% vs. lefties; 3.05 xFIP, 24.4% K-BB% vs. righties) generally neutralizes left-handed bats, and Kurtz in particular struggled against southpaw pitching last season (83 wRC+ vs. 211 against rightieS).
Moreover, the Braves have the lefty relievers to continue to keep those bats in check, whereas the Athletics have only one left-handed reliever (Hogan Harris), who both grades as a below-average arm and is potentially the most overworked pitcher in their bullpen.
I projected the Braves near -275 for the first five innings (F5), and priced them closer to -260 for the full game. The gap between Sale and Severino (about 1.5 runs on a weighted FIP projection) is larger than the gap between the bullpens (closer to three-quarters of a run).
Still, given the start time, I'd be careful placing or fully staking these day-after-night bets before seeing lineups. The Braves could sit Ronald Acuna Jr., particularly since they don't have an off day on Thursday. They either sat Acuna or played him at DH in nearly all day-after-night spots last season (following his ACL injury), and I project regular catcher Drake Baldwin as Wednesday's DH.
If Baldwin sits, I'd set the price closer to -245; if Acuna is out, I'd set the line near -220, and it would essentially set my price target near -200.
Assuming both teams play my projected lineups, I'd bet Atlanta at -250 on the F5 moneyline and -235 on the full-game line. Alternatively, use them as a parlay piece to -250.
Pick: Braves F5 ML (-250 or Better) | Braves ML (-235 or better)
Nationals-Phillies Picks
After a 2-3 start, and with an off-day on Thursday, I'd anticipate that the Phillies play their regular lineup (potentially with Rafael Marchan in for JT Realmuto) behind Cris Sanchez on Wednesday afternoon.
Last season's NL Cy Young runner-up seems primed to go up another level this season (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K in his opening day start against a solid Rangers lineup), provided the Phillies give Sanchez as many home starts as possible. For his career, Sanchez has generated a 2.75 xFIP and a 21.8% K-BB% at Citizens Bank Park, compared to marks of 3.54 and 12.3% on the road. That gap widened during his breakout 2025 campaign too (2.43 xFIP, 26% K-BB% at home; 3.09, 16.3% on the road).
I'm high on Cade Cavalli, a former first-round pick (No. 22 overall in 2020) who has flashed increasingly better stuff (104 Stuff+ in 2025, 108 in 2026, Location+ up from 97 to 106, botERA down from 4.22 to 3.59) since returning from multiple arm injuries that had kept him out of big league action since 2022.
Still, similar to the Braves-A's analysis, my projected gap between the starting pitchers (Sanchez and Cavalli) in terms of weighted FIP (about 1.4 runs) is wider than the projected gap between the bullpens (about 0.9 runs), and as a result, I show a bigger edge on the Phillies on the F5 moneyline as compared to the full game; take them in the first half up to -275, or for the full game to -260.
Additionally, this was one of the few projected overnight edges I showed on a total; bet Under 8.5 down to 8 at even money.
Pick: Phillies F5 ML (-275 or Better) | Phillies ML (-260 or better) | Under 8.5 (8, +100 or Better)
Red Sox-Astros Picks
The Red Sox played their backup catcher, Connor Wong (who projects as one of my worst defensive catchers), on Tuesday, which partially moved my projection and drove me to bet the Astros F5 moneyline behind Hunter Brown.
I'm on the other side of the moneyline for Wednesday, with Carlos Narvaez back behind the dish for Boston, and Garrett Crochet trying to halt their four-game losing streak following his dominant opening day effort (6 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a shutout win) in Cincinnati.
Mike Burrows (projected FIP range of 4.18 to 4.45; projected K-BB% of 14.2% to 16%) is an above-average starting pitcher, but Crochet (projected FIP range of 2.83 to 3.04; projected K-BB% of 23.8% to 24.2%) is in an elite tier with the likes of Paul Skenes (2.76 weighted FIP) and Tarik Skubal (2.61); even a half tier ahead of a pitcher like Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.22); all of whom are starting on Wednesday.
Houston's offense actually projects better against lefties than righties by about 3 points in wRC+, but I still show an edge on Crochet and the Red Sox in both halves; bet Boston's F5 moneyline at -165, and play their full game line to -150.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML (-165 or Better) | Red Sox ML (-150 or Better)
Guardians-Dodgers Picks
We cashed our Dodgers moneyline ticket with some nice CLV (bet -235, closed -295) on Tuesday, and will look to do the same on Wednesday following an injury to Guardians' star rookie Chase DeLauter.
DeLauter, who missed substantial time during his minor league career with injuries (138 games played across three seasons) fouled a pitch off his foot and could barely walk after before leaving the game; X-rays thankfully came back negative, but he's going to need at least a day for the swelling to go down and the Guardians will handle their injury prone youngster with care.
My projection went from around -260 with DeLauter in Cleveland's lineup to north of -300 without him, and I would bet the Dodgers up to -285 straight, or -300 as a parlay piece.
Yamamoto (projected FIP range of 3.22 to 3.39; projected K-BB% of 18.4% to 20.7%) has very few weaknesses after the early home run ball (career 0.73 HR/9; allowed 11 of 22 first time through the order), and although they have yet to click fully, I still project the Dodgers' as an all-star calibre offense (projected 126 wRC+) against any right-handed starter.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-285 or Better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, April 1
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (-220, 0.33u), FanDuel, bet to -250
- Atlanta Braves (-200, 0.33u), ScoreBet, bet to -235
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-156, 0.33u), FanDuel, bet to -165
- Boston Red Sox (-137, 0.33u), BallyBet, bet to -150
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-250, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -285
- Mariners/Yankees, Under 7.5 (-122, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 7 (-105)
- Nationals/Phillies, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 8 (+100)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-235, 0.33u), BetMGM, bet to -275
- Philadelphia Phillies (-245, 0.33u), Polymarket, bet to -260
- Tigers/Diamondbacks, Under 8 (-120, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 7.5 (-105)
