Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, March 31.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Rays vs Brewers, Tigers vs Diamondbacks, Yankees vs Mariners, and Guardians vs Dodgers.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks for Tuesday, March 31
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (-104, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -120
- Atlanta Braves (-133, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -140
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-235, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -260
- Mets/Cardinals, Over 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 9 (+100)
- Rangers/Orioles, Over 8 (-118, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 8.5 (-115)
- Red Sox/Astros, Over 7.5 (-112, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 8 (-102)
- Seattle Mariners (+104, 1u), Polymarket, bet to -110
- Tampa Bay Rays (+127, 1u), Polymarket, bet to +108
- Tigers/Diamondbacks, Under 9.5 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 9 (-105)
- White Sox/Marlins, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -116
Rays vs. Brewers Picks
After facing southpaw Kyle Harrison on Monday, the Rays will deploy their strong-side platoon lineup against Brandon Woodruff.
Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero are both nearly 40% better than league average against left-handed pitching, but they are also the Rays' only two above-average bats against lefties. Conversely, while Caminero and Diaz are closer to 25% above average against righties, they are accompanied by above-average left-handed bats (Jonathan Aranda and Jake Fraley) and three other average depth pieces (Cedric Mullins, Chandler Simpson, and Richie Palacios), with Chandler Simpson's game-changing speed also on display against right-handed pitching.
Rays' lefty Shane McLanahan also forces the Brewers into their lesser split; Milwaukee's current platoon lineups carry an average 103 wRC+ against righties, compared to a 99 wRC+ against lefties.
McLanahan (projected FIP range 3.34 to 3.91; projected K-BB% of 15.5% to 20.1%) will make his first major league start since 2023 (career 3.63 xERA, 3.15 xFIP, 20.9% K-BB%) following Tommy John surgery and a subsequent triceps injury.
He pitched well in spring (13 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 15 K), getting up to 73 pitches in his final outing on March 20, while touching 95 mph on his fastball in his fifth and final inning.
And he generally projects better than Brandon Woodruff (projected FIP range 3.64 to 4.12; projected K-BB% of 17.0% to 19.3%), who made 12 starts last season, after returning from his own lengthy recovery (surgery in October 2023) following a shoulder injury.
Woodruff (2.20 xERA, 3.24 xFIP, 26.8% K-BB% in his 2025 sample) had an odd ramp-up this spring, tossing just five total innings across two outings while going from 32 to 62 pitches but prioritizing caution.
The leash for either starter may be around 80 pitches on Tuesday.
The bullpens, baserunning, and defensive quality are roughly even on either side. Still, I do give Tampa Bay the edge, specifically in the first five innings (F5), in the starting pitching matchup, in their respective handedness, and in their offensive splits.
Bet the Rays to even money on the F5 moneyline, or play their full game line to +108, in what I project as a coinflip contest.
Pick: Rays ML (+108 or Better)
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Picks
The Diamondbacks nearly collapsed an 8-0 lead on Monday after Torey Lovullo tried to use Joe Ross (2/3 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 1 K) in early mopup duty in the seventh inning; the Tigers closed the gap to 8-6 and had the bases loaded with two out before Juan Morillo bailed Ross and Ryan Thompson (0 outs, 1 H, 2 BB) out of the jam.
I project an edge on the Diamondbacks moneyline again for Tuesday, and also set the Under at -130, after putting them at -134 on Monday, with a projected total near 8.6 (projected 8.99, closed 9 on Monday).
I only project Brandon Pfaadt (4.16 weighted FIP) slightly worse than Mike Soroka (4.07), and I make Casey Mize (4.12) better than Justin Verlander (4.58), which partially explains why my moneyline projection tightened and my projected total decreased. However, the advantages I saw for Arizona on Monday still exist on Tuesday:
Defense is the primary difference; the Tigers are above-average defensively as a team (catcher Dillon Dingler does a lot of heavy lifting), but they have a few soft spots, and two bad defenders (Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres) in particular. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have average to above-average fielders at every position, with Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno projecting among the best at their respective positions.
I'm unsure how much impact umpires still have on the totals. Still, one of the more pitcher-friendly umpires in Bill Miller (career 53.1% under, +2.2% ROI) may get challenged regularly by a pair of ace defensive catchers.
The one-sided nature of Monday's contest created the conditions for a blowout on the total; I'd expect a more competitive, better-pitched game on Tuesday.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120 or Better) | Under 9.5 (9 -105 or Better)
Yankees vs. Mariners Picks
We cashed a sweat-free under on Monday in Seattle as the Mariners walked off the Yankees 2-1 in the ninth inning, but while I align with Tuesday's total, I do show an edge on the Mariners to clinch the marquee series in an excellent pitching matchup.
The Mariners brought in a key platoon piece this offseason in former Yankee Rob Refsnyder (career 128 wRC+ vs. lefties, 76 vs. righties) to serve as the short-side DH alongside the left-handed Dominic Canzone (career 117 vs. righties, 81 vs. lefties), bringing the Mariners about even offensively (roughly a 110 wRC+ vs. righties and lefties) no matter the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher.
The Yankees have the better offense (117 wRC+), but I do give Seattle an edge for the duration of the pitching matchup; projections prefer Logan Gilbert (projected FIP range of 3.28 to 3.50; K-BB% of 20.9% to 24.4%) to Max Fried (projected FIP range of 3.35 to 3.49; K-BB% of 15.1% to 16%), with a strikeout rate about 10% higher than Fried's.
And even potentially without Eduard Bazardo (worked three times in four days), I still give the Mariners the better bullpen by nearly a half-run in a weighted FIP projection; they still project to have four of the top five relievers available in high-leverage innings.
You can take Seattle to around -110 in either half of this matchup.
Pick: Mariners ML (-110 or Better)
Guardians vs. Dodgers Picks
Shohei Ohtani will make his first start of the 2026 season, following the Dodgers' 4-2 loss to the Guardians on Monday in what was a very difficult spot for Cleveland; teams coming off a loss and traveling after Sunday Night Baseball historically struggle in their Monday away game, let alone win outright as big underdogs.
Ohtani (14 starts, 2.53 xERA, 2.45 xFIP, 28.2% K-BB%) posted career-best pitching metrics during his 47-inning sample with the Dodgers, while sitting at a career-high in fastball velocity (98.4 mph), and slightly altering his pitch mix. Among starters who tossed at least 40 innings last season, Ohtani tied with Cole Ragans for first in xFIP, and ranked second only behind Ragans in both K-BB% and SIERA (2.67). \
Most importantly, he cut his walk rate to a career-low 4.8% (career 8.5%). His growth as a pitcher may have gone overlooked, given the relatively small sample, but those numbers compare favorably to his 2022 campaign (2.61 xERA, 2.65 xFIP, 26.5% K-BB%) while throwing a tick slower (97.3 mph)
It's not hyperbolic to say that Ohtani is the best baseball player we have ever seen; Babe Ruth was also an upper-echelon hitter and pitcher, but he never did both at the same time, and unlike Ohtani, the Babe didn't have above-average speed and elite basestealing awareness and timing. And Ohtani keeps finding ways to get better on both sides of the ball.
Tanner Bibee (3.95 weighted FIP) is an above-average arm. Still, as I discussed during the Diamondbacks-Dodgers series about the Dodgers' totals, they project as an all-star-caliber lineup (126 wRC+) against right-handed pitching, more than 20% better than the Guardians' offense; I make the Dodgers north of -300 in the first five innings.
The pitching gap should narrow in the second half of the game, bringing Cleveland nearly two percent closer in implied win probability, but I still show an edge on the Dodgers with Ohtani on the mound – something that does not happen often and may not happen again; lay the juice to -260.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-260 or Better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, March 31
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (-104, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -120
- Atlanta Braves (-133, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -140
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-235, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -260
- Mets/Cardinals, Over 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 9 (+100)
- Rangers/Orioles, Over 8 (-118, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 8.5 (-115)
- Red Sox/Astros, Over 7.5 (-112, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 8 (-102)
- Seattle Mariners (+104, 1u), Polymarket, bet to -110
- Tampa Bay Rays (+127, 1u), Polymarket, bet to +108
- Tigers/Diamondbacks, Under 9.5 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 9 (-105)
- White Sox/Marlins, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -116
