Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, April 10.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview Pirates-Cubs, Diamondbacks vs. Phillies, Yankees vs. Rays, and White Sox vs. Royals.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.
MLB Predictions, Picks
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- Athletics (+136, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to +125
- Boston Red Sox (-125, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -135
- Chicago Cubs (-145, 0.25u), Caesars, bet to -155
- Diamondbacks/Phillies, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 8 (-105)
- Kansas City Royals (-170, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -180
- Marlins/Tigers, Under 9 (-125, Risk 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -135 or 8.5 (-113)
- Pirates/Cubs, Under 7 (-105, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -125 or 6.5 (+103)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+130, 0.5u), BetMGM, bet to +120
- Yankees/Rays, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to -110
Pirates vs. Cubs Over/Under Picks
I bet the under in this game at 7 (-105) on Thursday afternoon and entered it into the Action Network App immediately.
I generally enter my overnight wagers around midnight ET before any slate. Still, I typically take advantage of Friday openers on Thursday afternoon, as we've historically found bigger edges and better CLV betting as early as possible.
Friday afternoon's conditions are particularly pitcher-friendly — temperatures in the high 40s or low 50s throughout the game, with 7-9 MPH winds blowing in at the most wind-receptive park in the majors.
As a result, I would set this total closer to 7.8 on a weather-neutral day, but my weather adjustment brought Friday's projected total down near 6 — bet Under 7 to -125, or search for a 6.5 at plus money.
Separately, the game triggered our Action PRO system for Wind Blowing In, which has generated a near 59% win rate (148-104-19) and a 12.6% ROI at Wrigley since 2005. A flat $100 bettor would be up $3,426 across that sample.
Shota Imanaga allows a high number of flyballs (49.6% since his debut, 11th among 252 starting pitchers), and consequently, carries a high home run rate (1.62 HR/9; 37% higher than the MLB average of 1.18 from 2025). The wind direction has largely driven his success at Wrigley. Unders are 15-12-2 in Shota's home starts, but 6-3-1 when the wind is blowing in from any direction, and 5-6 when it's blowing out.
Carmen Mlodzinski has good arm talent, but typically needs a well-rest bullpen behind him (which he has on Friday). The converted reliever has an elite .556 OPS against the first time through against opposing hitters (despite a 9.5% K-BB%), but he's gotten pounded the second (.981 OPS) and third (.908) times around, despite posting a better K-BB% (12.8%) after turning over the opposing lineup once.
Take the under pregame, and consider a live Over or a Cubs' moneyline wager when their order flips over against Mlodzinski.
Pick: Under 7 (6.5, -103 or better) | Cubs (-155 or better after lineups)
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Total Picks
Corbin Carroll (hip tightness) was scratched from Thursday's game against the Mets, and considering his odd injury history, I'd say he's more likely to sit again on Friday than he is to play.
As a result, my above projection reflects a Carroll-free Diamondbacks lineup. If he did play, I'd upgrade their chances by more than 4%, to +144, and my projected total would increase by one-third of a run (closer to 8).
The betting market also reflects his likely absence. The Phillies opened around -165, with the Diamondbacks at +140, and the line has since ticked towards the home team (now -180).
I would take +160 or better on Arizona if Caroll happened to play.
I would have shown value on the Under regardless of his lineup status, but the edge would grow in his absence.
Take the Under to 8 (-105) assuming Carroll is out, or 8.5 (-115) if he manages to suit up.
The wind is blowing out in Philly (9-10 mph to center field). Still, I trust the quality from Jesus Luzardo (2.91 xERA, 2.90 xFIP, 25% K-BB since the second-half of 2025) and a resurgent Mike Soroka (3.72 xERA, 4.11 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB) to hold the scoring environment in check early.
Pick: Under 8.5 (8, -105 or Better)
Yankees vs. Rays Moneyline & Over/Under Picks
Historically, the Tampa Bay Rays are among the most profitable home underdogs in our database, generating a 7.4% ROI since 2005 (230-243), surpassed only by the St. Louis Cardinals (+9.1%) in ROI, and the Colorado Rockies (+$3,873 for a consistent $100 bettor) in net profit.
More importantly, all of their production relative to market has come as home underdogs in divisional games (132-126, +14.4% ROI), rather than non-divisional contests (98-117, -1.0% ROI).
The Rays are just 10-21 over that span against the Baltimore Orioles (-30.6% ROI) but have cleaned up against the Boston Red Sox (41-35, +22.2% ROI), New York Yankees (46-45, +17.2% ROI), and Toronto Blue Jays (35-25, +23.7% ROI). Being the least heralded team in a division of big-name clubs with giant payrolls has led to value on Tampa Bay at the Trop more often than not, but particularly at home against AL East rivals.
The Rays have almost become an automatic click for me in these spots, and they have a projected starting pitching advantage with Steven Matz facing former AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.
Gil's velocity (95.3 mph, down from 96.3 mph career), stuff (98 Stuff+, down from 106 in 2024), and underlying indicators (4.94 xERA, 5.65 xFIP, 3.3% K-BB) were worrying last season after suffering a lat strain. He didn't make the Yankees rotation this spring, and struggled in his long Triple-A appearance (4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 6 K) before getting recalled.
Gil's projections (FIP range from 4.49 to 4.89; K-BB% range from 8.9% to 12.9%) aren't in the neighborhood of his 2024 results (3.76 xERA, 4.36 xFIP, 14.8% K-BB) — they are far more reflective of his injury-marred 2025 campaign. But there's also nothing to suggest that he's suddenly recovered and put that injury behind him, either.
I'd also expect the Rays to put a ton of pressure on Gil on the basepaths (permitted 8 of 11 steal attempts for his career), which could lead to additional walks from a pitcher with shaky command (career 12.1% walk rate).
Steven Matz was a rare Rays' multi-year signing, following an effective couple of seasons in relief (3.38 xERA, 3.71 xFIP, 15.5% K-BB in 2025). His stuff (down from 104 to 93; velocity down from 94.5 to 92.5) won't hold up as well in the rotation as it did in the bullpen, but Matz still projects as the more reliable arm in the starting pitching matchup (projected FIP range 3.73 to 4.38; K-BB range from 12.9% to 15.5%).
Pick: Rays ML (+120 or better) | Over 8.5 (-110 or Better)
White Sox vs. Royals Moneyline Picks
Projections show a sizable difference in the starting pitching matchup between Kris Bubic (projected FIP range of 3.44 to 3.93; K-BB range of 13.9% to 16.1%) and Davis Martin (FIP range from 4.46 to 4.87; K-BB% from 9.4% to 11.1%).
Bubic projects as a mid-rotation starter with No. 2 upside, whereas Martin is between a No. 4 starter and a replacement-level arm.
Bubic struggled to find his footing until spending the 2024 season in the Royals' bullpen. He turned a 1.87 xERA and 2.04 xFIP with a 28.1% K-BB as an elite reliever into a 3.17 xERA and 3.63 xFIP, 16.2% K-BB season as a late-blooming 28-year-old starter.
Martin has had pockets of success, but the metrics are going in the wrong direction. Despite posting a 2.45 ERA through two starts, his xERA (4.87), and swinging strike rate (6.8 vs. 10.4% career) tell you that a 2.45 ERA and a 18.2% K-BB are not sustainable.
I'd normally project these bullpens around even, but the White Sox will likely be down their best pitcher, Grant Taylor, after he recorded four outs on Thursday, and I project the Royals' relievers more than a quarter of a run better.
Kansas City also has a distinct lineup edge (averaged to a 111 vs. a 96 wRC+ against right-handed pitching) over Chicago throughout this contest.
Pick: Royals ML (-180 or Better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, April 10
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- Athletics (+136, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to +125
- Boston Red Sox (-125, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -135
- Chicago Cubs (-145, 0.25u), Caesars, bet to -155
- Diamondbacks/Phillies, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to 8 (-105)
- Kansas City Royals (-170, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -180
- Marlins/Tigers, Under 9 (-125, Risk 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -135 or 8.5 (-113)
- Pirates/Cubs, Under 7 (-105, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to -125 or 6.5 (+103)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+130, 0.5u), BetMGM, bet to +120
- Yankees/Rays, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to -110
