Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, July 30.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Giants vs. Pirates, Mets vs. Padres, Rockies vs. Guardians, and Rays vs. Yankees. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, July 30
Pirates vs. Giants
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -210 |
RHP Mike Burrows (PIT) vs. RHP Logan Webb (SFG)
Logan Webb was walloped in July (7.36 ERA), but his 2025 metrics (3.61 xERA, 2.72 xFIP, 20.2% K-BB, 30.3% CSW) are comparable to his career year in 2021 (3.20 xERA, 2.79 xFIP, 20.5% K-BB, 30.9% CSW).
Webb almost always performs better at home (career 2.91 xFIP, 18.2% K-BB) compared to on the road (career 3.40 xFIP, 15.4% K-BB), and the Pirates are the softest matchup he’s faced in six weeks (81 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2025, 65 wRC+ vs. RHP over the past month).
These are two strong bullpens, and Ron Kulpa is a pitcher-friendly umpire (career 308-230-26, 57.2% win, 9.9% ROI).
I project 6.7 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115 | Play to -112)
Mets vs. Padres
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) vs. RHP Yu Darvish (SDP)
Juan Soto left Tuesday’s game after getting hit in the foot, and he’s unlikely to play on short rest this Wednesday afternoon, especially considering the Mets have an off day on Thursday.
Yu Darvish is struggling in his return from elbow inflammation (5.76 xERA, 5.18 xFIP, 2.5% K-BB), as he can’t seem to locate effectively (89 Location+). However, his velocity, stuff, and botERA (3.49) are comparable to his 2023 and 2024 levels.
Clay Holmes has struggled since surpassing his career-high in innings (previous high 70 IP, currently at 113 ⅔), posting a 4.24 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 1.1% K-BB, 98 Pitching+ and 4.67 botERA since June 7.
I project the Padres as -106 ML favorites with Soto on the bench.
Pick: Padres ML (+105 | Play to +100)
Rockies vs. Guardians
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8 -105o / -115u | +155 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 -105o / -115u | -190 |
LHP Kyle Freeland (COL) vs. LHP Kolby Allard (CLE)
The wind is blowing in at Progressive Field on Wednesday, but the humidity will be high.
The Guardians will throw a bullpen game behind opener Kolby Allard (3.82 xERA, 4.97 xFIP, 7.4% K-BB, 4.54 botERA), but the bullpen is struggling and just lost Emmanuel Clase.
Kyle Freeland (5.16 xERA, 4.1 xFIP, 10.7% K-BB) is surprisingly worse away from Coors Field, and the Colorado bullpen is a disaster.
The Rockies' offense is improving, but they’re still awful defensively.
I project 8.56 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 8 (-105 | Play to -112)
Rays vs. Yankees
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -105o / -115u | -140 |
RHP Zack Littell (TBR) vs. RHP Will Warren (NYY)
The weather should be hitter-friendly in the Bronx on Wednesday, with 91-degree temperatures and breezes out toward left-center field.
Zack Littell (4.56 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, 13.2% K-BB, 4.56 botERA) is having his worst season since 2019 with Minnesota. He’s running into a home-run problem, which is a brutal issue to have at Yankee Stadium (+21% HR Factor over the past three seasons).
I’m high on Will Warren, but I think he’s running out of gas. He’s at 104 ⅔ innings this season after throwing a combined 132 ⅓ across all levels last year. He’s pitched to a 6.29 ERA, 4.87 xfIP, 5.2% K-BB, 98 Pitching+ and 4.00 botERA in July.
Throw in New York’s slumping bullpen, and I project 9.66 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 | Play to -115)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 30
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- Padres ML (+105 | Play to +100)
- Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Over 8.5 (-120 | Play to 9 -110)
- Pirates vs. Giants Under 7.5 (-115 | Play to -112)
- Rockies vs. Guardians Over 8 (-105 | play to -112)
- Rays vs. Yankees Over 9 (-105 | Play to -115)
