Last week, I got absolutely gutted on a couple of strikeout props. Robbie Ray and Taj Bradley both cleared on their final pitch of the game — of course. Those kinds of beats are part of the grind. They suck, but they’re inevitable.
Still, I wasn’t discouraged. Why? Because my process felt sharper than ever.
I’ve been dialing in a more structured approach — combining my usual sim projections with a stock report-style system that grades each pitcher. I wanted something that helps me spot when both parts of the process — the numbers and the narrative — are lining up. That’s what my Priority Score was built for. It’s not gospel, but it’s a signal — a weighted score that measures how aligned my projection edge and “stock sentiment” are.
And here’s the fun part: Pitchers with a Priority Score of 17 or higher are now 9-0.
Do I expect that to last forever? Hell no. But it’s doing exactly what I hoped: Catching plays where everything in my process is pointing in the same direction.
Here’s the quick breakdown:
STOCK is based on my expected K% model. It evaluates stuff, matchup, ballpark, recent trends and compares it to how the pitcher is actually performing. It tells me if a pitcher is over/underachieving relative to expectation.
“Sell” doesn’t mean a guy sucks. “Buy” doesn’t mean he’s elite. It just means the market might be mispriced right now.
Then there’s my Sim Edge, which gives me the true percentage chance of a player to go over or under any prop line.
When those two align? It becomes a potential play. When they strongly align? That’s where the Priority Score comes in — and why I’ve started tracking anything that hits 17+ as part of the "17 Club."
Today’s chart is here. We’ve got a few actionable spots, and one new Club 17 member with a Priority Score of 20.0. That’s an auto-fire from me, so I'm locking it in early.
I might add more later, so keep an eye on the app if you're tailing. Follow me in the Action App and subscribe to Action Pro for immediate notifications when I log props.
S&K 500
Zack Wheeler officially joins the 17 Club with a Priority Score of 20.0 — the highest on the slate.
His stock is a Moderate Sell, and it’s not because he hasn’t been awesome — he is. In fact, his current 29.2% K rate would be the highest of his nine-year career, but at age 34, that kind of jump is unusual and my model sees signs of regression.
I’ve got his expected K rate at 27.2%, still elite, just a tick closer to his baseline.
He’s also had a pretty favorable schedule so far, including a home start vs. the Rockies (aka the free square for strikeouts), in which he punched out 10. That performance is still fresh in the market’s mind, but it’s inflating the number a bit.
Today’s matchup vs. the Marlins is another solid one on paper — Miami has the sixth-highest K rate this season — but my projected lineup model (which adjusts all lineups as if they’re facing a league-average starter) has this version of Miami ranked just 19th in expected K%. That matters, even though Wheeler is far from league average.
Wheeler is still a beast and he could absolutely get to eight, but when factoring in slight overperformance, a number juiced the wrong way and some sneaky resistance in the Marlins' lineup, I show fair odds for Under 7.5 closer to -135.
Not a slam dunk, but when my sim and stock system both point the same way? That’s when a pick earns Club 17 status.
I'm locking it in.
