The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 5, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Diamondbacks are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Picks: Diamondbacks ML (-131 or Better) | Over 9 (-120 or Better)
My Pirates vs Diamondbacks best bet is on Arizona to win and the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 9 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9 -110o / -110u | -142 |
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Pirates +120, Diamondbacks -142
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9 (-110o / -110u)
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+146), Pirates +1.5 (-178)
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| Bubba Chandler (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 2-0 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.97 / 5.15 | ERA / xERA | 3.03 / 5.02 |
| 5.69 / 5.26 | FIP / xFIP | 4.86 / 4.83 |
| 5.4% | K-BB% | 4.2% |
| 34.6% | GB% | 43.3% |
| .234 | BABIP | .257 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 102 | Location+ | 104 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Expert MLB Picks
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under Pick
The roof will be open in Arizona on Tuesday, and that’s worth noting. Chase Field with the roof open improves the run-scoring environment by about 10%.
Although the weather will be slightly cooler than normal in Arizona (mid-70s instead of mid-80s), I still project this total closer to 9.5 than 9, especially with Bubba Chandler and Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound.
Both of these starting pitchers have serious issues. Rodriguez is running just a 4.2% strikeout minus walk rate, while Chandler is running a 15% walk rate. Both guys have been giving up plenty of hard contact, and neither has been sharp with command.
I'm banking on plenty of runs.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Moneyline Pick
I also like Arizona in this matchup.
I much prefer Arizona’s offense to Pittsburgh's.
I project the Pirates with a 99 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, while I project the Diamondbacks with a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Arizona projects to strike out less and walk more, especially with Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo at the top of the lineup (all three have double-digit walk rates and should give Chandler fits).
I also project Arizona’s bullpen as better than Pittsburgh’s. I view the Diamondbacks as a top-10 bullpen, while the Pirates rank closer to 20th among MLB relief units.
Arizona also has the better defense.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks ML & Over/Under Picks:
- Diamondbacks ML (-131 or Better)
- Over 9 (-120 or Better)
