The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on June 29, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Diamondbacks are favored by -137 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are +115 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Giants vs Diamondbacks Pick: Over 9
My Giants vs Diamondbacks best bet is on game totals. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +145 | 9 -106o / -115u | +115 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -180 | 9 -106o / -115u | -137 |
- Giants vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Giants +115, Diamondbacks -137
- Giants vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9 (-106o / -115u)
- Giants vs Diamondbacks spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+145 ), Giants +1.5 (-180)
Giants vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| RHP Tyler Mahle (SFG) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 5.49 / 4.36 | ERA / xERA | 2.27 / 4.79 |
| 4.69 / 4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 4.06 / 4.42 |
| 13.1% | K-BB% | 8.2% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 40.1% |
| .318 | BABIP | .251 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 109 | Location+ | 107 |
Giants vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
Tonight's total has already moved from 8.5 to 9, but I still like the over at nine runs. I make the game closer to 9.4 runs before factoring in the home plate umpire, so there’s still enough value even after the market adjustment.
The biggest reason is that I see regression coming for both starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Eduardo Rodríguez has been one of the biggest positive regression candidates in reverse this season. His ERA is still sitting around 2.30, but both his SIERA and expected ERA are closer to 4.80. That’s a gap of more than 2.5 runs, and I don’t expect him to continue outperforming his underlying metrics by that margin.
Tyler Mahle is almost the opposite case. His surface numbers look worse, with an ERA around 5.50, but his expected metrics are closer to 4.00. Even so, I’m not convinced better results are coming. His four-seam fastball and slider both get hit hard, and I think pitching half his games at Oracle Park has masked some of the home run damage that could show up in a much friendlier offensive environment like Chase Field.
Arizona’s offense is another reason I like this over. I rate the Diamondbacks as the best contact team in baseball, even ahead of Toronto. They consistently put the ball in play, pair that with elite team speed, and generate plenty of extra-base hits despite below-average swing decisions. The Giants bring more power to the table, while Arizona has a clear edge in athleticism, baserunning and overall offensive consistency.
I project both offenses as flawed from a swing-decision standpoint, but the pitching matchup outweighs those concerns. With Chase Field still playing as one of the better run-scoring environments in baseball, I make this total 9.4 and would play Over 9 at anything up to -105.
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
Pick: Over 9 (-112 at FanDuel)
