The Cleveland Guardians host the Seattle Mariners on June 26, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SEAM.
The Mariners are favored by -113 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are -105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Guardians Prediction
- Mariners vs Guardians Pick: Luis Castillo Over 15.5 Outs (-107 or Better)
My Mariners vs Guardians best bet is Castillo to go over his pitching outs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Guardians Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -193 | 7.5 -120o / -100u | -105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +165 | 7.5 -120o / -100u | -113 |
- Mariners vs Guardians moneyline: Mariners -105, Guardians -113
- Mariners vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 runs
- Mariners vs Guardians spread: Mariners -1.5
Mariners vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | Stat | Joey Cantillo (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 5.22 / 4.61 | ERA / xERA | 4.05 / 4.20 |
| 4.08 / 4.29 | FIP / xFIP | 4.42 / 4.37 |
| 13.9 | K-BB% | 11.5 |
| 36.9 | GB% | 41.3 |
| .311 | BABIP | .298 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 109 | Location+ | 94 |
Mariners vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
By: Derek Carty
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I'm taking Luis Castillo over 15.5 pitching outs, and I like this one down to +105 or so.
I'm not a big fan of Castillo, and THE BAT X is not a big fan of Castillo. But 15.5 at big plus money is really just too good to pass up here.
THE BAT X is projecting close to 17 outs for Castillo, as he faces a bad Cleveland offense, especially without Jose Ramirez. This is probably the worst offense in baseball right now, and all Castillo has to do is get into the sixth inning.
He hasn't gone very deep in his last couple of outings, but he should still be stretched enough to clear this number. And I think that the Mariners want to give him the opportunity to go deeper because he's been coming in behind Bryce Miller.
They've come up with the new plan where everyone's going to piggyback going into the All-Star break, but he's getting a real start here — no one's coming in behind him.
I think his chances of him going beyond five innings are pretty good.
The Guardians are my second-lowest projected offense, as I have the Rockies slightly behind them. There's no Chase DeLauter and no Ramirez. It's a really weakened Guardians lineup right now, and that's good news for this pick.
Pick: Luis Castillo Over 15.5 Outs (+105 or Better)
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