The Philadelphia Phillies host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 15, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies have won the previous two games of this series and will look for the sweep today with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound. The Jays will try to match them with Jose Berrios as the starter.
Find our MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Phillies picks: Under 7.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Our Blue Jays vs Phillies best bet is Under 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Phillies Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +154 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -190 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) | Stat | RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 3.38/4.52 | ERA /xERA | 2.85/2.44 |
| 4.36/4.24 | FIP / xFIP | 2.97/2.69 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 0.90 |
| 11.4 | K-BB% | 25.9 |
| 40.3 | GB% | 39.9 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 97 | Location+ | 108 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Preview
Jose Berrios has five quality starts in a row and has only given up one run in his last three outings combined. That run was the product of a solo homer by Nick Castellanos on June 4 during the recent series between these teams at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
In that start against the Phillies, Berrios completed six innings, allowing four hits and two walks with five strikeouts, and ended up with a no-decision.
Philadelphia is doing well but still missing Bryce Harper's output. The Phillies offense ranked 10th until the end of May with 108 wRC+ but dipped in form during June, with an 85 wRC+ worthy of the 26th spot in the majors.
Today, they will send Zack Wheeler to match Berrios on the mound. Wheeler did not pitch in the previous series in Toronto due to the birth of his third child, but in his next turn in the rotation, he held the Chicago Cubs to a single run and three hits in six innings with seven strikeouts.
Wheeler made waves by announcing he would retire when his contract expires in two years, but in the meantime, he seems to be getting better with age.
He ranks 4th in Ks per 9 innings with 11.09, 10th in BABIP with .245, and 11th in WAR with 2.2 among all MLB pitchers.
Wheeler will challenge a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 10th in MLB with 105 wRC+ and 7th in WAR with 12.1, although it lacks a bit of punch with an ISO of .144 (18th) and a .399 slugging (13th).
With this pitchers' duel, the Under is the way to go, with the line at 7.5.
We also have weather factors possibly impacting this game, with a Bet Labs system aligning with today's recommendation.
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity—ranging from 45 to 95—intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has subtly corrected as well, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest—between 6 and 29.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115, BetMGM)
