NBA Best Bets Sunday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 6 p.m. | |
| 6 p.m. | |
| 6 p.m. | |
  | 6 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Timberwolves vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The Timberwolves head to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics. This should be an exciting game between some of the NBA’s top stars but I’m targeting a bench player for this matchup.
Naz Reid has found immense success against Boston, averaging 15.5 points per game against the Celtics, including 14+ in four straight games while playing at least 20 minutes in each game. Even with the inclusion of Julius Randle, Reid's rotation has remained the same and his role as a 3-point shooter has actually expanded a bit. Reid is averaging 14.3 PPG this season in 24.6 minutes per game.
I like this spot against Boston because he should line up mostly with the bench unit for Boston. His rotation aligns almost exactly with Luke Kornet and Neemias Queta, who are not the most nimble of bigs. This should allow Reid plenty of opportunity to score.
I’ll grab Reid to show out today against the reigning champs.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points (-125)
| | | | | | |
Timberwolves vs. Celtics
Things haven’t gone quite as planned for the Minnesota Timberwolves following their blockbuster trade with the Knicks to acquire Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and a protected first-round pick in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Timberwolves are just 8-7, and their Net Rating has taken a hit from +6.3 a season ago down to +2.3.
Surprisingly, four of their seven losses have come against teams below .500. Those numbers suggest a drop in concentration when facing lesser opponents.
Sunday afternoon's matchup against the reigning champion Boston Celtics should help resharpen their focus on the task at hand.
Boston does most of its damage from behind beyond the arc, generating 46.3% of points with 18.6 3-pointers per game. However, Minnesota is highly effective at defending the perimeter, limiting opponents to a league-best 11.2 field goals per game from outside.
But it’s not as if the Timberwolves are just getting fortunate with opponents missing perimeter shots; they’re also allowing the fewest 3-point attempts, which suggests they do a tremendous job closing down would-be shooters.
That commitment should bode well against the Celtics, who haven’t covered the spread in their last three meetings against Minnesota.
After running the numbers, my model makes the Timberwolves closer to a 7-point underdog, giving me a slight edge on the current number of +8.5.
Pick: Timberwolves +8.5 (-115)
| | | | | | |
Wizards vs. Pacers
By Joe Dellera
Tyrese Haliburton has struggled this season, averaging just 15.5 points and 8.5 assists per game; however, a matchup against the Wizards should be just the antidote.
The Wizards have the league’s worst Adjusted Defensive Rating while playing at the fourth-fastest Pace. There should be plenty of opportunities for Haliburton in this game.
Additionally, Haliburton has had insane home/road splits. He is averaging 20.8 points and 8.8 assists at home compared to 12.3 points and 8.3 assists on the road. His shooting in particular drops off a cliff. Considering he’s back home for this one, we should expect a bump.
This matchup has historically been strong for Haliburton as well. He has exceeded this 29.5 PA line in five of his last six games against the Wizards while averaging 32.2 PA.
This is a get-right spot for Haliburton and I’ll grab over 29.5 PA.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 29.5 Points + Assists (-105)
| | | | | | |
Clippers vs. 76ers
Guerschon Yabusele is averaging 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds in games without Joel Embiid this season.
Yabusele also has two starts this season, including last game, in which he did clear this with ease, finishing with 10 points and 11 boards. Overall, Yabusele has gone over this number in four of seven, but in five of six in games played without Embiid. In fact, of those five, he's always gotten to at least 19 PR.
Pick: Guerschon Yabusele Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
| | | | | | |
Clippers vs. 76ers
By Joe Dellera
Harden and the Clippers face off against his old team, who will be without Joel Embiid. I’m grabbing Harden to excel as a scoring threat and also as a facilitator.
The Sixers have managed a decent defense this season but given how both Maxey and McCain are a bit undersized, I think they will struggle a bit against Harden in this spot where they do not have Embiid behind them cleaning up the defense.
Additionally, because Embiid is out, I expect the Harden/Zubac pick and roll to be utilized often. If Philly decides to double Zubac, then Harden will be able to score himself.
The other notable injury is Norman Powell. Without Powell, Harden scores 11 more points per 100 possessions and his Usage skyrockets by over 8%, per PBP Stats. Although the assists come down, I think this particular matchup aligns well for them regardless.
I’ll grab Harden to exceed 32.5 PA.
Pick: James Harden Over 32.5 Points + Assists (-113)
| | | | | | |
Clippers vs. 76ers
Without Joel Embiid — well, even with him — Ivica Zubac should get this barring foul trouble.
Andre Drummond came off the bench and is seeing his minutes cut, clearing the runway for Zubac on the glass. He has double doubles in 10 of 17 games this season, including six of his last nine, and should be a constant target of James Harden on the receiving end of their pick-and-roll sets in Harden's return to Philadelphia, which I'm sure will be handled well.
Pick: Ivica Zubac Double Double (-120)
| | | | | | |
Mavericks vs. Heat
The Heat haven't cracked this number at home yet. And now they face Dallas, which has been a top-10 defense this season.
I'm not even saying the Heat are going to lose this game — they're favored and they could win even though Dallas is better on the road than they are at home — but I'd be surprised to see this be a track meet.
Pick: Heat Team Total Under 113.5 (-110)
| | | | | | |
