Monday, January 27, 2025, brings a packed NBA slate featuring 12 games, including the Lakers visiting the Hornets, the Cavaliers hosting the Pistons, the Nuggets taking on the Bulls, and the Orlando Magic facing off against the Miami Heat in a marquee matchup.
Let's bet some NBA.
LAKERS AT HORNETS
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -111 | 222 -110 / -110 | -205 |
| Hornets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -109 | 222 -110 / -110 | +170 |
PICK: Under 222
Moore's Projection: 211
A good trend to start with: the under is 16-6 in Hornets home games this season.
The Lakers' defense is 8th in the last two weeks and starting to finally find itself. The addition of Dorrian Finney-Smith (and the removal of D'Angelo Russell) has boosted them and they've found their identity.
Want a wild stat? The Hornets are the 10th-best non-garbage-time defense at home this season per CleaningTheGlass. The Lakers' strength this season has been their offense, but they're 19th in non-garbage-time offense on the road.
Even as they've surged the past two weeks, the offense is where they've taken a step back, 14th in that span offensively.
So we have a lot of looks at this being a little more of a grind with an early start.
PISTONS AT CAVALIERS
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 235 -110 / -110 | +395 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -111 | 235 -110 / -110 | -537 |
PICK: Over 235
Moore's Projection: 238.4
Pistons games are 52 percent to the over on the road, Cavs games 64 percent to the over at home. Good start.
Dean Wade is out; he's a sneaky good defender. When Wade is out, the over is 7-3 in Cavs games this season. Isaac Okoro is out, when Okoro is out, the over is 13-4. You've taken two defenders that the market won't respect and removed them.
The Cavs' defense is on a slide; they're 28th in defense the last two weeks and 29th in January. Evan Mobley is back, but the over is still 27-12 with Mobley in the rotation.
The Cavaliers are great at limiting three-point attempts but they give up a high percentage and the Pistons are one of the best catch-and-shoot teams in the league.
(Malik Beasley or Tim Hardaway Jr. 3's are probably a good prop angle.)
MAGIC AT HEAT
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 208 -110 / -110 | -134 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 208 -110 / -110 | +110 |
PICK: Over 209.5
Moore's Projection: 211.1
I am ready to get hurt again.
In the past two seasons, the over is 4-3 in games between these two teams. Pretty close. But the average total in those games was 212.
OK, small sample alert… but this season when they have Franz Wagner (playmaking, scoring), Paolo Banchero (scoring), and Jalen Suggs (setting the floor, playmaking), the over is 5-1. I think there's a better offense in this team than they have when they're not whole.
Bottom-10 teams in pace. Two top-11 teams in schedule-adjusted defense (Heat are 11th). I get why this is low, but it opened 207 and is up 2.5 points. I think there's still meat on the bone to 210.
GRIZZLIES AT KNICKS
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 241.5 -110 / -110 | +134 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 241.5 -110 / -110 | -159110 |
PICK: Alternate spread Grizzlies -2.5
Moore's projection: Knicks -1.5
I still have the Knicks favored but it's within margin. In the NBA since 2015, dogs who cover have won outright 65 percent of the time. This season, that number is still at 63 percent. The Grizzlies are 8-5 ATS as a road dog this season and 5-3 straight up when they do cover as a road dog.
So we take the alternate spread at -2.5 for a way smaller share of a unit.
The Knicks are 18th in transition defense, going up against the onslaught of Memphis' transition offense (1st in transition points per game and 8th in efficiency).
I lean over here but don't have enough separation to play it. However, Memphis is 22-7 ATS in games that go over, while the Knicks are 12-12 ATS in games that go over. Here's another scary stat: New York is 29th against top-10 offenses this season.
If you want to parlay the over and Grizz, I don't mind it, but I'm going to keep it simple and play a high-end outcome.
NUGGETS AT BULLS
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 248.5 -110 / -110 | -415 |
| Bulls Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 248.5 -110 / -110 | +320 |
PICK: Nuggets -8
Moore's Projection: Nuggets -12
Denver is 55-46-5 ATS (55%) with Nikola Jokic after a loss as a favorite since 2019-20. The Nuggets have a bad road record this season but most of it came from early this season when they were trying to figure themselves out. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 10-13-1 as a home team ATS.
I just think the number's too low with where Denver's at right now.
WIZARDS AT MAVERICKS
| Wizards Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 231.5 -110 / -110 | +500 |
| Mavs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 231.5 -110 / -110 | -700 |
PICK: Under 231.5
Moore's Projection: 224
The number's just too high, nothing wild about this one. The Mavs are 12-12 over-under without Luka Doncic this season. The question is how low the Mavericks' offensive floor is without Doncic and Dereck Lively vs. how low the Wizards' defensive floor is. Very movable object vs. completely resistable force. I'm banking on missed shots.
